Commodity Trade Mantra

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Is the US Dollar Rally Nearing Its End?
US Dollar | March 31, 2015

Past dollar rallies of this type have mostly seen a dollar appreciation of around 20% & lasted from under a year, meaning the current rally is already extended. Also, disappointing U.S. economic data is mounting and being largely ignored. Valuations suggest that the U.S. dollar may now be the world’s most overvalued currency.

Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar?
Gold Trading | US Dollar | March 31, 2015

Gold is money, the best store of wealth millennia of human experience have devised, and more and more people are recognizing this. Pretty much everywhere but in the US, gold is up, not down. Of course, there’s a good chance that there’ll be more sell-offs before the gold bull resumes its charge… but they should be regarded as opportunities.

Why We Need Deflation and Higher Interest Rates
Economy | March 31, 2015

The Fed, like central bankers elsewhere, (though slightly out of step as it recently hinted at possible future rate hikes) stays committed to a 2% inflation target as it continues a policy driven by a fear of deflation, a fear that is not supported by either good economic theory or economic history properly interpreted.

Beware: Fracking Is Where Money Goes to Die
Crude Oil Trading | Natural Gas Trading | March 30, 2015

The fracking boom has been cash-flow negative for oil and gas drillers from the very beginning. The steep decline rates of fracked wells force producers to drill more wells just to keep production and revenues flat. They fund this drilling with debt. To support that growing debt, they have to produce more & take on even more debt.

$20 Oil Looms As Iran-Nuclear Deal Nears Deadline
Crude Oil Trading | Zerohedge | March 30, 2015

Iran is a sleeping oil giant holding 9% of the world’s proven oil reserves & with an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply already sloshing around international markets, any increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in oil prices. OPEC may clamp down on this in June, but by then oil may already be selling for $20.

OPEC Pressure on Global Oil Market Continues
Crude Oil Trading | Sprott Group | March 30, 2015

The rig count in the Middle East continues to climb, hitting a new record in Feb. This is a clear indication that OPEC has NO intentions of easing up on their overproduction of oil anytime soon. OPEC has two targets in this campaign & the effectiveness of its strategy cannot be denied. WTI Crude is once again below the $50 mark.

Gold to Fuel Silver Upleg
Gold Trading | Silver Trading | March 30, 2015

Silver is a fascinating market. Almost without exception, all of silver’s biggest and strongest spikes, uplegs, and bull markets in modern history have been fueled by parallel gold rallies. From an investment perspective, silver is ultimately just a leveraged play on gold. Silver investment demand is almost totally dependent on gold’s fortunes.

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