Commodity Trade Mantra

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Will the Fed Have to Save Emerging Markets with QE4?

As emerging markets and nations attempting to defend their currency pegs to the USD sell U.S. Treasury bonds (which have been held as foreign exchange reserves), the yields on the Treasuries rise as a matter of supply and demand. As supply increases, sellers must offer higher yields to entice buyers. This dynamic undermines both the emerging markets and the U.S.

Gold’s Price Movement is not a Gold Story. It’s a Dollar Story

If gold went from $1,900 an ounce to $1,100, to me, that’s a 50% increase in the value of a dollar. If gold goes from $1,100 to $1,500, I would think of that as a devaluation of the dollar. What that tells me is the story is really about the dollar. So what’s happening to gold is not unique to just gold. It’s something that is affecting all of the other commodities & currencies.

China Stands Ready to Re-Inflate Bubble: Michael Kosowan

Will China, the “engine” of the world’s great economic machine, come chugging to a halt? Not likely. In the weeks ahead, China is likely to experiment with cutting interest rates and further devaluing its currency in order to stabilize the stock market. They may shuttle the bad debt off to warehouse-like institutions while they re-inflate their markets.

Is the Stock Market Now "Too Big to Fail"?

The stock market is now integral to the economy as a measure of sentiment & evidence that all is well with the economy. If the stock market is now too big to fail, the Federal Reserve will have to prop it up whatever the cost. Ultimately, this may require indirect purchases of stocks–an action that other central banks are already pursuing directly or indirectly via proxies.

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Could Oil Prices Sink Below $40 Per Barrel Again?

As we know all too well, all paths lead back to energy, hence falling oil prices are reining in inflationary pressures once again. Retail oil prices on the national average are now dropping below $2.50/gallon, and should continue to retrace in the coming months – despite the expectation of a deep refinery maintenance season.

U.S. Gold Production Finally Hit Hard Due To Low Price

The lower price of gold has finally taken its toll on U.S. gold production. Domestic gold mine supply fell considerably in May compared to the same period last year. This is a significant amount as the United States is the fourth largest gold producer in the world. If current trends continue, U.S. gold production will fall below 200 mt in 2015.

Citi Slams Historic Oil Surge: "Another False Start, Time To Fade The Rally"

Citi’s Ed Morse together with Goldman has been bearish on oil for a good part of the past year, and slammed the crude breakout when he released a report titled “Another False Start…Time to Fade the Rally” whose punchline is that “Citi foresees that WTI and Brent prices should post another fresh leg lower—perhaps making new 2015 lows—before year-end.”

5 Trends That Are Shredding the Global Economy

In the wake of the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009, central banks launched monetary stimulus programs aimed at pumping money into the economy. The stated goals of these stimulus programs were 1) boost employment and 2) generate enough inflation to stave off deflation, which is generally viewed as the cause of financial depressions.

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