Commodity Trade Mantra

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Why a Fed Rate Hike Could Be a Blessing for Gold Prices

I think the timing of a rate hike has been overhanging the gold market for well over a year. Relieving that issue could actually prompt a short covering rally. It would be kind of a sell-the-news event where the shorts figure that the trade is over and this is a good time to begin covering, more and more head for the door, and we have the rally underway.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Japanese inflation data mirrored that of Germany, and was flat MoM, with YoY inflation dropping to +0.2%. In terms of inflation, the US is in a similar position to both Germany and Japan, in that should oil prices stay around current levels, it will too see inflation data coming in as flat as a beaver’s tail by year-end.

Why QE4 Is Inevitable - What could turn Sentiment more Positive?

According to Deutsche, and soon according to virtually all sellside strategists who are slowly but surely grasping the significance of what we have been warning for month on end, QE4 is inevitable. The only problem is that when the Fed pivots from “imminent rate hike” to QE4, it will loose the last shred of credibility it had left. The Fed is now completely trapped.

Something Quite Interesting Happened In The Silver Market

There has been a serious change in the silver market. Even though there was a 55.1 Moz build in Global Silver ETF inventories in 2012, the next two years saw very little silver enter into this investment market. But Silver Bar & Coin demand shot up to a record 243.6 Moz in 2013 & 196 Moz in 2014. Investors prefer to purchase physical silver than take their chances playing in the Paper Silver ETF market.

You Should Be Dollar-Cost Averaging Your Gold Purchases

Dollar-cost averaging is a “set it and forget it strategy.” You’re simply committing to pay the average cost for gold per ounce over time. That way, you don’t need to worry about timing the market. All you have to do is make gold purchases of a set dollar amount regularly, no matter the price. This saves you from worrying about whether you’re getting a good price.

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Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy

The slowdown in China’s economy was set in motion when the yearly rate of growth of the money supply fell from 39.3% in Jan 2010 to 1.8% by Apr 2012. The effect of this massive decline in the growth momentum of money puts severe pressure on bubble activities. Any tampering with the currency rate of exchange can only make things much worse as far as allocation of scarce resources is concerned.

OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

Despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its investment in its oil industry. The Saudi government revenue and expenditure data suggest that the Saudis must do far more than “reduce investment” in 2016: the precipitous drop in oil prices—a consequence of their new policy—has put Saudi Arabia on an unsustainable financial path.

The Economics of a Stock Market Crash

To mainstream financial commentators, blame for a crash is always placed on remote factors, such as China’s financial crisis, and has little to do with events closer to home. Analysis of this sort is selective and badly misplaced. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the economic background to today’s markets as well as the likely consequences.

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