NCDEX, MCX Agro Commodities Update: Higher Mentha Oil production estimates is pushing the commodity to lower levels. Production of Mentha Oil is likely to exceed 50,000 tonnes this year vs 38,000 tonnes last year. Market sentiments are likely to remain weak till arrivals continue & no strong demand is expected. Expectations of higher sowing activities this year, has added pressure on the markets even as low stocks and lower arrivals were reported. Rising export demand amidst lower stocks however are expected to support the prices in the medium term. The next crop is expected to arrive in June.
Pepper NCDEX Futures on profit booking & also due to poor demand from the overseas buyers. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of 2012 to 8810 tonnes as compared to 10344 tonnes in the same period previous year. Brazilian & Indonesian pepper production details not yet clear as per reports available.
The total domestic production of Jeera in the present year is estimated to be in the range of 32-33 lakh bags (1 bag = 55 kg), against 28 lakh bags produced last year. According to the agriculture ministry, in Gujarat, Jeera was sown on 2.65 lakh hectares, compared with 1.30 lakh hectares last year. The total production inGujarat is expected at 12-13 lakh bags, while in Rajasthan it is estimated to be 10 lakh bags. The NCDEX Jeera July contract ended the last session down by Rs 475 or 3.53% at Rs 12,995 after hitting the high of Rs 13,530 per quintal. The counter is likely to dip further with support at Rs 12,700-12,750 and Rs 12,500 while resistance is at Rs 13,200, Rs 13,450 per quintal.
Total production of Turmeric in the current year is likely at 90 lakh bags against 70 lakh bags that were reported last year in the same period. Moreover, sturdy carryover stocks in major mandis of around 20-22 lakh bags are also witnessing some selling pressure at higher levels. Higher arrivals are keeping the prices bearish and price are likely to find some support at lower levels if arrivals into the market falls drastically. As per the latest release from the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, it is expected that last year stock and this year production accounts to nearly 1 crore bags (75 kg/bag). India’s domestic consumption and export demand requires 65-75 lakh bags. As the supply is above domestic and export demand, the price started declining. Technically, the Turmeric NCDEX counter is likely to find next support at Rs 3,820-3,800, Rs 3,770 and resistance is at Rs 3990, Rs 4050 per quintal.
According to the latest report from Conab, the safrinha corn production inBrazil should be 40% larger than last year due to both an increase in acreage and yields. In Mato Grosso the safrinha acreage increased 39% from 1.84 million hectares to 2.55 million. In Parana the acreage increased 12.5% from 1.72 million hectares to 1.93 million. While the corn is still developing in both states, the yields are expected to be much better than last year’s problematic crop.
Bearish trend prevailed in Coriander futures on the heels of strong arrivals in major mandies along with restricted off-take by traders at current levels. As per market sources, the total arrivals of around 0.80-1.10 lakh bags (1 bag = 40 kgs ) were reported in all the major mandies from the last one week. The spot prices of new coriander were trading in the range of Rs 3200-3400 per quintal.
Chana futures NCDEX might garner some bargain buying at lower levels due to higher prices of imported pulses along with weak arrivals at major mandies. The NCDEX June Chana futures are likely to gather some buying around Rs 4100-4120 per quintal in the near term. As per market sources, higher prices of imported pulses due to weakness in rupee against dollar might keep domestic pulses market supportive in the coming days. Traders stated that rupee have pared almost 9% against dollar in the last month to trades around 56 levels which might allow the costlier imports of international pulses. The spot prices of Australian chana were trading at Rs 4400 per quintal against the Indian quality of Rs 4100 per quintal.
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