Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Commodity Trading’

Are You a Real Contrarian Investor or Just a Fashion Contrarian?

Contrarian investing is based on taking a position that is opposite to that of the masses. Very few of today’s contrarians are true contrarians; Most fall into the category of fashion contrarians. Investing based on psychology amounts to not only taking a position against the masses but also against the fashion contrarians. Once sentiment has reached boiling point, one should go into cash.

Excessive Bearishness Indicates, Commodities Perfectly Poised for a Major Upswing

The benchmark Bloomberg Commodity Index lost value in five of the past six years, down so far in 2017 too, touching a 13-month low in early deals on Tuesday. The commodities-to-stocks ratio at a historic low today (extreme level rarely seen over the past five decades), suggests “real” assets could once again be set to beat financial assets over the next several years.

Commodity Cycle in Early Stages of Turning Bullish, Buy & Hold Gold and Silver

As a resource investor, it’s important to have some idea of whether you’re investing in a commodity at a time in the cycle when it’s favorable to do so. Chart reading, combined with supply & demand fundamentals, can help investors identify favorable times to be a buyer or seller. Right now, the cycle appears to be in the early stages of turning bullish for commodity prices.

Commodities Firms Gain Most as FTSE 100 Keeps Going Strong

It is clear that commodities prices have had a really big impact on the stock market in this period, and that this has been far greater than even the impact of the general election. With the pound not doing anything especially interesting at the time (it rose slightly against the dollar but was down against the euro), oil prices have certainly been one of the most important drivers on the market.

The Correlation between US Dollar & Commodities is now Broken

Commodity prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar over the past decade or so, but this relationship broke down in late 2016 and the breakdown looks here to stay. Commodities generated strong returns in the Q4 of 2016 with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index moving 9% higher despite a stronger dollar which gained about 7% against major currencies.

Investors' Bullish Commodity Bets Hit Record on Signs of Growth

Rising interest in commodities reflects a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when these markets fell to historic lows that wiped away all gains from the 2000s. Booming commodity prices attracted new producers, flooding markets for everything from oil & gas to aluminum & wheat. As signs of inflation & improving global demand have returned, investors are beginning to pile back into commodities.

Fundamental & Technical Views in The Commodity Markets

Let’s take a look at some key commodity components to see what’s going on right now & how it might be helpful. Historically, we tend to see strong moves in commodities with converse movements in the US Dollar. If you have a good scent on where Commodities are headed & that is confirmed with US Dollar moving in opposite directions, you have found a good theme that could trade & ride for a while.

Why It’s High Time to Consider Emerging Market Stocks

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emerging markets grew 4.1% last year. For perspective, the U.S. economy grew 1.6%. For 2018 the EMs will grow 4.8%, compared to 2% U.S. economy growth. Commodity prices have taken off. Higher commodity prices could be the catalyst that emerging market stocks have been waiting for.

What Makes Goldman Sachs Majorly Bullish On Commodities

Commodities ended positively in 2016 for the first time in six years, so there should be further room to run. When business optimism goes up, capital expenditure also goes up & when capex goes up, commodities follow. Goldman has been neutral on commodities, recommending an overweight position only 4 times in the last 20 years. So now when it is become bullish, investors should pay attention.

It Might Be Time to Grab the Commodities Bull by the Horns

Commodity investors have had to endure a dry spell for a while now, but those days are starting to look as if they might be behind us. We see encouraging signs that a bottom has been reached and a new commodities super-cycle has begun, as global manufacturing expansion and inflation are finally gathering steam following the financial crisis more than eight years ago.

Is Inflation Caused by Rises in Commodity Prices or by a Deliberate Act of Currency Debasement?

If inflation is just a general rise in prices as the popular thinking has it, then why is it regarded as bad news? What kind of damage does it do? To ascertain what inflation is all about we have to establish its definition. Now to establish the definition of inflation we have to establish how this phenomenon emerged. We have to trace it back to its historical origin.

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

Bull Market in Commodities - Central Bankers to be Blessed with Inflation Soon

Commodities are now nearing bull-market territory after rebounding from the lowest level in at least 25 years. Investors have poured more than $17 billion into exchange-traded products linked to commodities since the start of the year. Sharply rising commodity prices since the beginning of the year are a warning sign that perhaps the inflationary times have begun.

Eurozone in Danger on Falling Purchasing Power of Dollar, Not Rising Commodity Prices

All financial prices in the Eurozone are badly skewed. So far, the price inflation environment has been benign, but this year, things have been changing. Higher levels of debt will never allow the ECB to run interest rates up sufficiently to kill price inflation. More likely, positive rates of only one or two per cent would be enough to destabilise the Eurozone’s financial system.

CFTC doesn't know, nor wants to know Anything about the Commodity Market Rigging

Being unaware of the Deutsche Bank market rigging story, untill 10 days later, gives the impression that the CFTC not only doesn’t know what’s going on in its jurisdiction but also that it doesn’t want to know. It is additional evidence that certain commodity market rigging is outside the commission’s concern because the governments are the actual perpetrators.

How Automated Trading / Algorithms Can Affect Commodity Trading

Automated trading accounts for more than 70% of all futures trading. Regulators have set their sights on regulating automated trading in the commodities market with controversial new rules. The increase in algorithmic trading will have a number of impacts on the market and fewer opportunities for human traders who may struggle to compete.

12 Lethal Trading Mistakes That Even the Best Traders Make

Given that markets are on a major turning point, it’s time we discuss 12 of the worst trading mistakes that even seasoned traders do. And it’s worth mentioning that I’ve been guilty of quite a few of these trading mistakes earlier. If you want to become a better trader & make money, you have to identify & rectify your biggest trading mistakes. A little self-reflection can go a long way.

Volatility Frustrates Traders: No Rational Explanations On What’s Going On

Traders are frustrated in a market where nothing makes sense. A casualty of this current volatility is that at any given time there are no rational explanations for what’s going on. Back & forth swings of meaningful proportion are characterized, by necessity, with a random reason generator. Better to just put it down to simple things like China’s economy or European banking system is collapsing.

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