Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Crude Oil Trading’

Here's What Gold Can Tell You About Crude Oil Prices

The WTI crude oil to gold ratio is one of the oldest indicators in the market. Currently, the ratio, which bottomed at about 21 at the end of 2016, has risen to just over 26 & has now clearly broken the trend line, that peaked in early 2016 at just above 45. So 45 barrels per ounce reflects very cheap oil or very expensive gold while 21 reflects very expensive oil or very cheap gold.

These Fundamentals Point To Higher Oil Prices

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

Don’t Worry about Oil Prices, Here’s How You Can Profit

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

A Massive Spike In Crude Oil Prices Seems Inevitable - IEA

3 years of drastic cuts to upstream spending due to the meltdown in oil prices could result in a shortage of oil supply in a few years, according to the IEA. Global oil and gas investment dropped by a quarter in 2015 & by an additional 26% last year. The pipeline of new projects is too small, while oil demand continues to grow, eventually overtaking supply & leading to a sharp spike in oil prices.

Will $60 Level be a Ceiling For Crude Oil Prices?

Oil prices faltered on Tuesday on slow but steady gains in U.S. output. The failure to break out of a narrow trading range on the upside has exposed crude oil prices to some losses. Having failed on a couple of occasions to break higher it is only natural to see it correct lower. As per a Reuters survey, analysts see oil prices staying below $60 even if OPEC extended its cuts through the end of the year.

Iran’s Oil Industry "Neither Shaken Nor Stirred" By New Sanctions

It does not seem that Trump’s new sanctions can do much to deter Iran. Political posturing in the form of targeted sanctions may cause anti-American sentiment in the country to flare-up as Iranian politicians paint Trump as the ultimate boogeyman, however, the scope of the unilateral sanctions will prevent any serious consequences to Iran’s oil sector moving forward.

Oil Markets On A Knife Edge Despite 91% OPEC Compliance

The 10 OPEC countries that promised to reduce their production as part of the Nov. 30 deal have achieved a 91% compliance rate with the targeted cuts. Oil prices enjoyed a huge surge following the successful outcome of the OPEC deal at the end of 2016, but have stagnated since. If OPEC compliance starts to drop, it will probably do so with a backdrop of rising U.S. oil production.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started

OPEC’s decision to deliberately cut oil supply and abandon the strategy of pursuing market share at all costs is currently benefiting the cartel’s competitor, U.S. shale. Five or ten years from now, a possible market share ‘oil war’ would take place on a totally different battleground, and some regiments or battalions may lack essential armory to wage such war.

Has Saudi Arabia Underestimated the Shale Oil Resilience yet Again?

Saudi Arabia seems unfazed from a possible rebound in U.S. shale. They still believe that current oil prices at around $50 are still not enough to herald a significant rebound of US shale production. Saudi Arabia’s oilmen may not lose sleep over U.S. shale resurgence, but it looks like they may have underestimated the shale resilience yet again, as was their idea of flooding the market with oil in 2014.

Solar Demand 'Key' in 2017 for Silver Prices

Analysts GFMS – a division of Thomson Reuters, say that the solar energy sector bought 11% more silver last year than 2015, the only major use to grow on their latest estimates for the Washington-based Silver Institute of miners, refiners, retailers & industrial users. But research into substitution continues & “you’re [now] seeing some investment in replacing silver with copper.

Will Crude Oil Prices Rise To $60 By Christmas?

What does the crude oil chart forecast? Crude oil has made a nice ascending triangle pattern. If the price breaks out of the $52 levels and sustains the breakout, it gives an upside pattern target of $67. However, the markets have rejected the levels above $52 on December 5, but we should see one more attempt at a breakout above the highs.

Strong Buying Continues To Fuel The Oil Price Rally

While it is too soon for the latest CFTC data to reflect the market’s response to the OPEC decision, the forward curve is giving us a good indication of what has happened. Short positions by speculators have been closed out amid the post-OPEC meeting euphoria, while oil producers have snapped up short positions along the forward curve, hedging future oil production over the coming years.

Why The Price of Oil Tanked And Why It’ll Stage A Comeback

WTI spreads stayed in a bearish pattern this week with help from a flood of imported crude into the US, a modest inventory build in Cushing and OPEC deal jitters which were particularly harsh. Our current view still calls for a $47-$55 range heading into the OPEC meeting later this month and we see several reasons why oil should find its footing and potentially rebound in the near term.

OPEC’s Gloomy Long-Term Outlook For The Oil Market

Given the election is dominating much of the movement in markets today, and given the timely release of OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, today’s post digs into some of the longer-term trends emerging in the oil market. Here are six things to consider. Developing nations will lead demand growth (no surprise there), driven by the transportation sector.

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

Global Oil could be a True Body Blow to the US Dollar

What happens when more parties reject the Brent quote as an accurate daily price quote for oil? President Putin has stated many times that he wants to move away from the US dollar in trade. Global oil buyers would soon fall into line & begin paying that basket price. If the Brent oil quote falls apart in Europe — replaced by Urals blend quote — It would be a true body blow to the US dollar.

Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude?

The array of comments from OPEC and Russian officials over the past week could signal that a real effort might be underway to reach a deal on freezing production. Iraq would support a deal; Iran will attend the meeting & the potential for an OPEC deal received an endorsement from a surprising source – Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his weight behind a production freeze.

The US Dollar Strength Takes Its Toll On Oil Prices Again

As we exit summer driving season, and as refinery maintenance ramps up, demand eases, and typically… oil prices come under pressure. The return of oversupply fears are clobbering the crude oil complex lower, with gasoline leading the charge. With Nonfarm Friday on deck, bringing the prospect of a stronger dollar, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

The Biggest Wildcard For Oil Prices Right Now - China

China’s record purchases, along with temporary production outages in Nigeria and Canada, helped rebalance supply and demand in the oil market. However, since that is now over, stopping shipments for the reserve would wipe out about 15% of the country’s imports & the price of oil would plunge as the already oversupplied market would find itself with an unprecedented glut of excess production.

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