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OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher

Oil prices hit one a month high on Monday thanks to speculation about potential producer curbs on supply and new data from market intelligence firm Genscape showing an estimated draw of more than 350,000 barrels per day at the Cushing OK delivery point. Although oil prices reacted stoically on last week’s rig count report, the amount of rigs added to the Permian basin is starting to add up.

Will The Rally In Crude Oil Prices End Today?

The market sell off on product market concerns did not lead any notable change in crude oil fundamentals. Refiners have yet to pull back meaningfully on crude oil purchases & crude oil inventory builds are only starting to turn bearish in both the weekly US statistics and globally. US crude oil inventories are set to build above normal over the coming months.

OIL - The Untold History of Black Gold & How it began the Political Strategies of the West

The political strategy of the U.S. had to adapt to provide for the needs & wants of the American population. The ‘70s marked the turning point when the U.S. shifted from being an oil exporter to the world’s largest oil importer. The oil crisis of 1973 was the game changer that transformed the international political & financial system into the current system of petrodollars & oil wars.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil Prices To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. Putting a number to his call: oil prices will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

End of Driving Season Means More Declines In Crude Oil Prices

The driving season ends next month, which is when most refineries shut down for maintenance after operating at near-full capacity during the summer months. This is—historically—when gasoline demand subsides. The end of summer travels is also when gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. could increase, further pushing down crude oil prices.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Slump In Oil Prices May Burn The Oil Industry Again

When oil prices fall, volatility increases & the floodgates of capital open. Every genius-investor wants to buy low & sell high. Rig count rises with fresh capital, production increases & oil prices fall. When oil prices rose from $26 in mid-Feb to over $51 by early June, the rig count change rate exploded. Predictably, oil prices are falling again on continuing the same thing that got you in trouble before.

The US Shale Industry Is Painfully Adapting to Low Oil Prices

The rise in oil prices over the past six months has come as a blessing for the battered US shale producers. Oil prices have risen more than 50% since January, giving a glimmer of hope to the US oil industry that the worst of the oil crisis might finally be behind them. Moreover, it forced the shale producers to adapt by reducing production costs and increasing efficiency.

Why Any Major Crash in Oil Prices Remains Unlikely

At oil prices below $40 a barrel, virtually no new drilling occurs. As a result, oil prices today may be artificially boosted by market speculation, but as long as they don’t go high enough to lead to significant new drilling, fundamentals will eventually catch up and production will fall dramatically. That in turn will support current oil prices and perhaps even higher prices in the future.

Oil Prices can Spike on $1 Trillion In Spending Cuts

An oil supply deficit may be hard to fathom given two years of surplus and rock bottom oil prices, but with the financials of so many oil companies badly damaged, upstream investment could come up short in the not-too-distant future, even if oil prices continue to rise this year. The small increase in the US oil rig count over the past few weeks is not nearly enough to reverse the decline.

Brace for a Correction in Gold, Crude Oil Prices on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

Souring sentiment may reflect pre-positioning ahead of next week’s potent news-flow – notably, the FOMC rate decision – with traders using a lull in high-profile event risk to book profits & move toward a more neutral posture. A broadly corrective tone may also bode ill for gold prices after the metal hit the highest level in three weeks. Crude oil prices & the S&P 500 too have declined.

India's Soaring Oil Demand Provides Floor Beneath Oil Prices

India’s oil demand grew by 400,000 barrels per day in the first quarter – the fastest in the world, accounting for about 30% of the total global increase. Crude oil imports have jumped by 12% so far this year from 2015 levels. India’s oil demand could rise to 10 mb/d, a more than 6 mb/d increase from today’s levels, which will also be the largest source of growth on the planet.

Why We Need Oil Prices to Rise to $120 Per Barrel or More

When oil prices fall from $100 per barrel to $50, the incomes of a large share of people are adversely affected. This drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items & is also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house.

With A Rebound In Oil Prices, Will Drilling Activity Return?

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

Saudi Market Share Hit As Russia Doubles Oil Exports To China

Russia had overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s leading supplier of crude oil at the end of last year. Russia’s exports to China had more than doubled over the course of the past years — an increase equivalent to 550,000 barrels a day, while the two major oil suppliers – Saudi Arabia and Iran, saw their Chinese oil orders decline year-over-year.

Here's Why Crude Oil Prices Could Keep Climbing

Stocks took a beating yesterday. But crude oil continues to push to new 2016 highs, topping $48 for the first time in nearly five months. No one is cheering as it sneaks higher week after week. Where were these oil bears when crude was trading north of $100 in early 2014? And more importantly—where are the crude oil bulls right now as this disbelief rally continues?

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Crude Oil War

For exporters of commodities & industrial materials, the shrinking of the world’s largest source of demand is bad news. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Chinese energy sector, as crude oil accounts for 6% of total imports. China’s economic slowdown, combined with a global push towards renewable energy, could threaten the already fragile levels of its crude oil demand.

Iran Offers Discounts On Asian Crude Oil, Hits Saudi Where It Hurts Most

Iran has introduced a discount on the June contract for its heavy crude oil going to Asia, just after Saudi Arabia announced a price increase for its own June contract for the continent. With the discount, Iranian crude oil will be noticeably cheaper for Asian clients than both Saudi and Iraqi crude. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing a game of barrels & Asia is the ultimate prize.

Crude Oil Prices Spike After EIA Reports Surprise Draw

The EIA sees non-OPEC production dropping 0.7 million bpd this year, while it sees OPEC production up 0.9 million bpd this year & up an additional 0.7 million bpd in 2017 (h/t Iran). It now pegs crude oil demand growth at 1.4 million bpd for this year (up 0.3 million bpd from last month), with the increase in large part due to higher Chinese and Indian demand.

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