Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Crude Oil Trading’

China And India Rewrite The Rules Of The Oil And Gas Game

Asian oil markets are in a tremendous period of flux. Both China and India are using the drop in oil prices and the existing oil gut to their advantage. New partnerships are being formed and steps are being taken, which undermine the erstwhile major players. Each crisis brings about a change, and the current one is shifting the power from the suppliers to the consumers.

Why North-American Oil Is Positioned To Win In The Long-Run

Not only are North American oil producers displacing non-North American imports from the U.S. market, U.S. producers are competing for share in foreign crude oil and petroleum product import markets. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports at the end of 2015 will increase U.S. exports. The “growing volumes of exports” from the U.S. are now “spooking the markets.”

Oil Prices Drop After IEA Warns Production Freeze Is "Meaningless"

A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed … to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

The Current Rally In Oil Prices Is Reaching Its Limits

Oil prices have climbed by about 50% from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But now, with oil traders taking the most bullish positions in months while the fundamentals still have not shifted in a correspondingly significant fashion, traders have set up the conditions where oil prices could snap back to the downside.

Oil Markets Increasingly Bullish As Long Positions Surge

The latest CFTC data show that short positions in WTI crude oil shrank again last week, dropping by 20% to the lowest level since June. In combination with a 2.4%t increase in long positions, net-longs increased by 17% – to the highest level since last June. Once again, this increase shows ‘much less bearish’ positioning, as opposed to ‘much more bullish’.

Have Oil Prices & Markets Grown Numb To Supply Disruptions?

The idea that there is a major glut in oil supplies has been overstated. Surpluses in the past have been higher & oil prices did not collapse. Oil price discovery is basically made in the highly leveraged oil futures market & speculators exaggerate oil price movements on the upside as well as the downside. Just as fast prices fell because of them in the futures market, they could drive prices up.

Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

Oil producers including Gulf OPEC members support holding a meeting next month to discuss a deal to freeze output even without Iran. Given Iran’s determination to add an additional 1 million b/d of supply to an already glutted oil market, it’s still difficult to understand how “let’s freeze things at a record rate” is a viable way to permanently alleviate downside pressure.

Here Is Why Crude Oil Prices May Not Move Higher

The investigation I have presented here about the possible similarities between the present increase in oil prices and the false price rally of March-June 2015 reinforces my sense that a return to higher oil prices is not at all straight-forward. Oil markets are a leading indicator for the broader economy because the economy runs mostly on energy and not so much on money.

IEA Sees “Light At The End Of The Tunnel” For Oil Markets

The IEA found a variety of reasons to think that the oil markets are turning a corner, including: supply outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and the UAE; the declines in non-OPEC supply; tepid but steady demand; recent weaknesses in the U.S. dollar; and the potential that OPEC takes stronger action to boost prices, although any meaningful steps to reduce supply remain unlikely.

Solar Power Is About To Get Much Cheaper

Solar power is not going away and those who think it is are fooling themselves. The concept of cheap solar panels is particularly attractive when one considers the possibility of combining Solar City’s plant with batteries like that of Tesla or Orison. If Solar City can combine cheap solar panels and installation with reliable and cost effective battery storage, it could be a true game changer.

Oil Bust Spreads: Credit Downgraded Of 11 Texas Towns

The Moody’s ratings have little forward-looking value, and are more a reflection of what the market already knows—that times are tough, and lending in this industry—or within the geographical boundaries of oil-dependent locations—comes at a risk. Moody’s will consider the oil downturn and the ability of each government to adapt in this difficult environment.

Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

As the shale oil revolution had sustained momentum at oil prices near $100, Saudi Arabia began the second most rapid rig count expansion in its history starting in late 2013. While Saudi Arabia & OPEC have talked intermittently about increasing demand & decreasing supply, their actions have not always comported with the distracting, laissez-faire attitude suggested by their commentary.

Oil Fundamentals Could Cause Oil Prices To Fall, Fast

I hope that oil prices increase but cannot find any substantive reason why they should do anything but fall. As market balance reality re-emerges in investor consciousness and the false euphoria of a production freeze recedes, prices should correct to around $30. A little bad economic or political news could send oil prices much lower.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

Victory For Saudi Arabia, North Dakota's Largest Oil Producer Suspends All Fracking

Reuters reports, that North Dakota’s largest producer, Whiting Petroleum, would suspend all fracking, and that Continental Resources has effectively done the same after reporting that it no longer has any fracking crews working in the Bakken shale. It was also a confirmation that the Saudi plan to put high-cost producers on ice is working, if only temporarily.

Why OPEC Oil Production Freeze Could Pave The Way For Actual Cuts

The purpose of the Doha agreement is to put a floor under crude oil prices—and as a first step in raising prices in the future. The freeze is a starting point, which, over time could lead to production cuts as major non-North American producers gain confidence in the intentions of their fellow producers and therefore bring forward balancing the global crude oil market.

Oil Price Volatility Off The Charts - What Explains The Incredible Volatility?

Oil prices are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, but the daily up & down moves are leaving investors with whip lash. What explains the volatility? What is new is the instability in the financial markets. China’s slowing growth; Emerging market currencies crashed; Fed rate hikes may or may not be forthcoming, etc. This all adds up to a period of incredible volatility.

UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes

India is building a massive underground storage facility system that will be able to take on 5.33 million tons of crude oil as a bulwark against global price shocks and supply disruptions. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has agreed to store crude oil in India’s maiden strategic storage facility, sweetening the deal by saying India could take two-thirds of the oil for free.

The Real Reason Behind Crazy Volatility In Crude Oil This Week

The volatility in crude oil trading has been incredible to say the least, and has reached the highest levels since Lehman’s systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos.

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