Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Economic Forecast’

Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis

The market is materially mispricing the strength of the US consumer whose weakness will lead the US economy into a recession in Q117. The divergence is a result of the top 40% of earners who have accrued 84% of all new income and only 34% of new debt since 2013. This strength has driven headline sales figures and accounted for nearly all deleveraging since the financial crisis.

Financial Forecast: Six signs that 2016 will be much worse than 2015

Over the course of 2015 we witnessed several events that had, and will have, negative repercussions. The financial systems as a whole, once again, got deeper into debt. For how much longer can central banks & governments continue kicking the can down the road without any real reform? Here are answers to these questions to identify trends for 2016 by looking at six key issues.

Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold?

As emerging market currencies decline, income streams needed to service the dollar debt declines: as income & valuations fall, capital flees, pushing the relative value of the currency down even more, which further raises the risk premium which triggers even more capital flight. The sums in play are so staggering, even the Fed won’t be able to stop the financial meltdown.

2015: If this the Year of the Slump?

There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability.

Forecast 2015 – 11 Forecasts from Greece to Gold

Here are my financial forecast particulars for 2015 from Greece to Gold – Both China and Russia will continue to work to convert their dollar reserves into Gold whenever possible. Meanwhile, America and Great Britain’s campaign to discredit and devalue gold will only permit their rivals to acquire more at a cheaper price. Read on…

Data Driven or Driven Data: Economy

While there are a many types of economic data releases, 2 reports have risen above the rest in importance: Quarterly GDP estimates issued by BEA & monthly jobs report issued by BLS & both have been recently coming up roses. Almost all the other significant data, have been ignored or, when that proves impossible, rationalized away.

All Economic Data Are Lies

The scariest part of it all is that the data most utilized by the Federal Reserve, in determining how many dollars to print out of thin air, are the employment lies & the “twin towers” of inflation understatement; i.e., the CPI and GDP. Lying about the rate of inflation is an activity which comes more naturally to central bankers than breathing.

The Trends To Watch For In 2014

The Trends to Watch For in 2014: Government overreach, economic stagnation & civil discontent – Trends are inconsequential until they reach a critical mass of 4% of the populace, at which point the “vital few” exert outsized influence on 64% of the populace.

10 Outrageous Predictions for 2014 by Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading specialist and investment advisor has released its ‘Outrageous Predictions’ for 2014. They admit the probability of any of them coming to fruition is rather low. But, that hasn’t stopped them making them – Hype or outlandishly canny laughable material?

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