Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Economy’

Silly Debt, Paper Dies, Gold Thrives

The purchasing power of our debt based fiat currency will be exponentially eroded until the catastrophic “debt withdrawal” occurs. The agony of withdrawal occurs now … or later, when it will be even worse. You can now: Protect your purchasing power with silver and gold, or Trust that purchasing power will not decrease, in spite of 100 years of history.

Currency Wars Become Much Nastier During Recession Times

All central banks have printed trillions of dollars in their respective currencies under various QE programs. They are at the point where they simply cannot print trillions more without risking the collapse of confidence in their currencies. How will central banks stop the recession when they’ve used up their dry powder fighting the currency wars?

The Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates, But Must Pretend It Will

The Fed must succeed in continuing to postpone rate hikes into the future without breaking peoples’ expectation that rates will rise at some point. It has to send out the message that rates will be increased at, say, the forthcoming FOMC meeting. But, as the meeting approaches, the Fed would have to repeat its trickery, pushing the possible date for a rate hike still further out.

The $5 Trillion Oil Debt Bomb

Oil below US$60 is more than low enough to do an enormous amount of damage in financial markets. When many oil producers went for loans, the industry’s models showed oil prices between US$80 and US$150. So suddenly, there’s a bunch of debt out there that producers will not be able to pay back with the money they make at US$50 a barrel.

Will US Dollar Collapse Over Another Debt Ceiling Fight?

The US federal government is about to hit the debt ceiling, which stands above $18.0 trillion, and Congressional Republicans refuse to raise it. The last debt ceiling fight led to a downgrading of U.S. debt. Another blow to the credibility of the U.S. government could be devastating. Could a US dollar collapse be around the corner?

Gold Price Strengthening as Debt Ceiling Debate Heats Up … Again

Any near-term “resolution” of the debt ceiling standoff that doesn’t require the government to start living within its means won’t resolve the debt problem. It will just make the problem bigger – more spending; more borrowing; more bond buying from the Federal Reserve. It all adds up to more reasons to own gold and silver.

Peak Debt & The Need For A Reliable Store of Value: GOLD

Most investors seem unconcerned about the unsustainable levels of global debt and the inflationary potential of the trillions of dollars created by the major central banks especially the U.S Federal Reserve. I expect to see gold and silver demand increase dramatically in the coming years as more prudent investors see the truth and look for a reliable store of value.

The Mindless Stupidity Of Negative Interest Rates

Can anyone show a clear example connecting the dots to show where negative interest rates have stimulated an economy? Can anyone clearly explain how charging an institution or business to hold deposits is in any way stimulative… not net stimulative, but stimulative AT ALL? It defies common sense.

Can The Fed Raise Interest Rates In An Election Year?

While many economic and market factors may influence when and how often the Fed hikes in the upcoming months, we do not expect the timing of US elections to play any meaningful role in the Fed’s policy deliberations. Expect the Fed to gradually tighten policy in a data dependent manner during 2016 — regardless of how the political winds may blow.

Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession

When the Fed effectively telegraphed its new reaction function last month, the FOMC served notice to the world that it was not only acutely aware of what’s going on in emerging markets, but also extremely worried about the possibility that hiking rates could end up triggering something far worse than the “tantrum” that unfolded across EM in 2013.

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy

The US Federal Reserve orchestrated an artificial boom from 2001 to 2007 through artificially low interest rates, paid for it with millions of destroyed jobs, wasted labor & wasted resources, but has resumed doing so once again. The Chinese Central Bank learned nothing from the Fed’s catastrophic experiment for its economy. They will reap the same rewards.

All You Need To Know About The US Economy: True Unemployment Is Over 12%

How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment? Something about the U.S. economy isn’t adding up. Either the unemployment data or the GDP calculation is very much wrong. Last week’s failure by the Fed to hike rates is a direct confirmation that nothing with the US economy is as strong as the 5.1% unemployment rate suggests.

The Echo Bubble in Housing Is About to Pop

Here’s the knife in the heart of the Echo Housing bubble: household income– stagnating for decades for 90% of households has declined since the Bubble Top when adjusted for inflation. Please explain how declining real income can support nosebleed home prices now that mortgage rates have bottomed & started their inevitable rise from absurdly low levels.

Take Advantage of the Fed's Uncertainty - Buy Gold or a New Home

The Fed’s decision is a wash for precious metals, oil and gas prices. A rate hike would have likely caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen even further, which in turn would have put additional pressure on commodities. Home buyers who have been sitting on the fence now have a double-incentive to act: historically low mortgage rates and a possible chance at killer bargains.

Government Shutdown & Debt Limit Questions Answered

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, but the House looks unlikely to act until shortly before the September 30 deadline. Here are some attempts to answer the main questions surrounding the shutdown, debt limit & ramifications.

The Massive Debt Bubble Will Push Silver Prices Much Higher

The April 2011 peak exists in similar conditions to that of the interim high in the previous bull market. The silver price will, as a minimum, equal the 38.58 times rise of the previous bull market. That would be a minimum target of $155.86 (4.04 times 38.58). The context of this silver bull market & massive debt levels today, suggest that silver will go much higher.

Why Gold is Good and Sovereign Debt is Bad

It is easy to create debt – central banks “print” currencies by BORROWING those currencies into existence. Debt increases, currency in circulation increases, and until it crashes, life is good for the financial and political elite. But debt increasing 60 times more rapidly than gold indicates that debt is growing too rapidly and due for a reset.

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