Commodity Trade Mantra

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The New Lightest (Heavyweights) on Earth - Stocks Continue to Defy Gravity

Bull markets in stocks seem unstoppable right up until the moment they stop. Stocks continue to defy gravity. We’ve now gone a full year without a 5% pullback in the S&P 500. Traders are scooping up every tiny dip, earnings are strong, and your market leaders continue to push to new highs. Then comes a rapid crash-and-burn phase. Is there ever any warning that a collapse is about to happen?

Stock Market Crashes happen when no one's Worried about it, Not when Everyone's Worried

Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Why should investors be so concerned right now? I expect the wheel of fortune to turn and for luck to run out for the sellers. The catalysts for a volatility spike are all in place. We could even get a record super-spike in volatility if several of these catalysts converge.

Fed & ECB to now Strangle the Extraordinary Stock Bull they Nurtured

The stock bull went from normal between 2009 to 2012 to literally central-bank-conjured from 2013 on. Without central-bank money printing behind it, the stock-market levitation between 2013 to 2015 never would’ve happened! Now that the Fed & ECB have started strangling this extraordinary stock bull they nurtured, the long-overdue stock bear delayed by QE, will also prove proportionally oversized.

Can Bond & Stock Market Bubbles outlive Reversal of Monetary Stimulus that Created them?

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have been two of the biggest liquidity creators and both have stated they intend to reverse their policies. With the ECB set to taper its purchases, what will happen to yields? And where will the liquidity come from to hold bond and equity prices aloft? Are central banks about to pop the bond & stock market bubbles they have created?

Believe It Or Not! The The Stock Markets Have Peaked - Brace for the Worst Crash Ever

Over the last couple of years, stock markets have enjoyed a meteoric rise. The Dow closed above 23,000 for the first time this week. Bankers & investors around the world have started expressing concern about the rapidly inflating stock market bubble & its future impact on the world economy. I feel the stock markets are about to fall back to earth & the crash may prove worse than Black Monday.

Cracks Forming in Stock Markets Suggest of Looming High Powered Volatility

Cracks are forming in an equity bull market that’s been devoid of major price swings for months – and you might miss them if you don’t know where to look. Don’t be lulled to sleep by near-record low stock market price swings. Before you know it, shares will be getting whipsawed around, just like the good ol’ days. At least that’s what official measures of volatility are suggesting.

Stocks at Tipping Point, Bearish Signals Are Multiplying for Equity Markets

The ratio of outstanding puts to calls on the S&P 500 has risen to levels last seen in the late-2015 market sell-off. Nervous Equity investors are willing to pay more for protection against losses than gains. So-called equity implied volatility skews are above the 10-year average. Investors have increasingly pushed into perceived haven assets in the second half of 2017.

What are You going to put Greater Faith in Now - Stocks or Gold?

The world currently seems to believe more in companies and all the enterprise that comes with them than it does in gold. Have we reached a turning point here, with the S&P 500 at two times the price of an ounce of gold? That’s a question we all need to think about. What are you going to put greater faith in from current levels given the current state of the world – stocks or gold?

Is Apparent Strength in Stock Market Masking Deeper problems below the Surface?

Mounting pessimism comes at a time when US equities are looking healthy, at least on the surface. This apparent strength of the stock market may just be masking deeper problems brewing under the surface. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point.

Are You a Real Contrarian Investor or Just a Fashion Contrarian?

Contrarian investing is based on taking a position that is opposite to that of the masses. Very few of today’s contrarians are true contrarians; Most fall into the category of fashion contrarians. Investing based on psychology amounts to not only taking a position against the masses but also against the fashion contrarians. Once sentiment has reached boiling point, one should go into cash.

A Major New Bear Phase is Long Overdue in Stock Markets - Don’t be Fooled

If you study the history of the stock markets, stock prices never do well for long starting from bubble valuations. Such extreme stock prices relative to underlying corporate earnings streams actually herald the births of major new bear markets. So buying stocks here, late in a huge old bull market artificially levitated by the Fed, is the height of folly. Massive losses are inevitable.

Upside Turn in Stocks & Slam-down in Gold and Silver - Both may be FAKE

The recent inflection from skepticism to optimism could be the first step toward the stock market euphoria that we typically see at the end of bull markets & has been absent so far. People have been convinced that everything is wonderful right now & that stocks are going to go up forever. I don’t buy this. It wouldn’t be a total shock to me if stock markets are down 25% & gold is up 50% by October.

Fundamentals in place for Gold with Fed Tightening amid Unjustified Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500 Index has reached new, all-time highs. While the current stock market does not have the same feeling of mania seen before the tech bust, in the context of an economy that struggles to achieve 2% growth, we struggle to justify current stock market valuations – and remember, the Fed is tightening. Gold should also benefit if the US dollar trend seen so far in 2017 continues.

Gold and Silver OR Stocks - Choose Between High Risk or High Reward

While the gold price has a bit more cushion than silver, we can plainly see that both gold and silver are much closer to a bottom than the Dow Jones Index. The HIGH RISK, LOW REWARD easily goes to the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index. While retail gold and silver sales have fallen significantly, as well as their sentiment, the fundamentals point to a LOW RISK & HIGH REWARD… if we are patient.

When will Equities and Gold Begin to Change Places?

In our view, Bullard has signaled the approaching demise of the Trump inflation trade. The equity markets have not yet got the memo. In the midst of a manic bubble, all news is still good news. The prop under the run up in stocks and the narrative behind the correction in gold are fading. We think equities and gold will soon begin to change places.

Commodities Firms Gain Most as FTSE 100 Keeps Going Strong

It is clear that commodities prices have had a really big impact on the stock market in this period, and that this has been far greater than even the impact of the general election. With the pound not doing anything especially interesting at the time (it rose slightly against the dollar but was down against the euro), oil prices have certainly been one of the most important drivers on the market.

Warnings of a Stock Market Bubble from Major Investors

Many money & hedge fund managers are privately telling investors: Stocks have risen to unsustainable levels & a stock market crash may well be imminent. Geopolitical tensions continue to rise with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatening to explode & the US & North Korea are seemingly determined to maintain a collision course. In short – there are a lot of pins to pop a bubble.

The Fake Paper Markets & the Real Gold and Silver

Just like the artificial paper markets in New York and London that are used to keep the price of gold and silver from rising, the western stock markets are prevented from falling by a web synthetic derivative securities and fraudulent financial reporting applications. Never before in history have stock market valuations been more disconnected from the underlying fundamental economic reality.

Trump’s Stock Market Report Card Says - Buy Gold

Judging by the huge post-election rally we’ve witnessed, it’s no surprise the Trump administration is patting itself on the back. But if early morning market action is any indication, the streak ends today. It’s safe to say investors are feeling giddy as the stock market blasts into uncharted territory. As the stock rally loses steam to finish the trading week, gold looks stronger than ever.

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