Commodity Trade Mantra

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Cracks Forming in Stock Markets Suggest of Looming High Powered Volatility

Cracks are forming in an equity bull market that’s been devoid of major price swings for months – and you might miss them if you don’t know where to look. Don’t be lulled to sleep by near-record low stock market price swings. Before you know it, shares will be getting whipsawed around, just like the good ol’ days. At least that’s what official measures of volatility are suggesting.

Stocks at Tipping Point, Bearish Signals Are Multiplying for Equity Markets

The ratio of outstanding puts to calls on the S&P 500 has risen to levels last seen in the late-2015 market sell-off. Nervous Equity investors are willing to pay more for protection against losses than gains. So-called equity implied volatility skews are above the 10-year average. Investors have increasingly pushed into perceived haven assets in the second half of 2017.

What are You going to put Greater Faith in Now - Stocks or Gold?

The world currently seems to believe more in companies and all the enterprise that comes with them than it does in gold. Have we reached a turning point here, with the S&P 500 at two times the price of an ounce of gold? That’s a question we all need to think about. What are you going to put greater faith in from current levels given the current state of the world – stocks or gold?

Is Apparent Strength in Stock Market Masking Deeper problems below the Surface?

Mounting pessimism comes at a time when US equities are looking healthy, at least on the surface. This apparent strength of the stock market may just be masking deeper problems brewing under the surface. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point.

Are You a Real Contrarian Investor or Just a Fashion Contrarian?

Contrarian investing is based on taking a position that is opposite to that of the masses. Very few of today’s contrarians are true contrarians; Most fall into the category of fashion contrarians. Investing based on psychology amounts to not only taking a position against the masses but also against the fashion contrarians. Once sentiment has reached boiling point, one should go into cash.

A Major New Bear Phase is Long Overdue in Stock Markets - Don’t be Fooled

If you study the history of the stock markets, stock prices never do well for long starting from bubble valuations. Such extreme stock prices relative to underlying corporate earnings streams actually herald the births of major new bear markets. So buying stocks here, late in a huge old bull market artificially levitated by the Fed, is the height of folly. Massive losses are inevitable.

Upside Turn in Stocks & Slam-down in Gold and Silver - Both may be FAKE

The recent inflection from skepticism to optimism could be the first step toward the stock market euphoria that we typically see at the end of bull markets & has been absent so far. People have been convinced that everything is wonderful right now & that stocks are going to go up forever. I don’t buy this. It wouldn’t be a total shock to me if stock markets are down 25% & gold is up 50% by October.

Fundamentals in place for Gold with Fed Tightening amid Unjustified Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500 Index has reached new, all-time highs. While the current stock market does not have the same feeling of mania seen before the tech bust, in the context of an economy that struggles to achieve 2% growth, we struggle to justify current stock market valuations – and remember, the Fed is tightening. Gold should also benefit if the US dollar trend seen so far in 2017 continues.

Gold and Silver OR Stocks - Choose Between High Risk or High Reward

While the gold price has a bit more cushion than silver, we can plainly see that both gold and silver are much closer to a bottom than the Dow Jones Index. The HIGH RISK, LOW REWARD easily goes to the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index. While retail gold and silver sales have fallen significantly, as well as their sentiment, the fundamentals point to a LOW RISK & HIGH REWARD… if we are patient.

When will Equities and Gold Begin to Change Places?

In our view, Bullard has signaled the approaching demise of the Trump inflation trade. The equity markets have not yet got the memo. In the midst of a manic bubble, all news is still good news. The prop under the run up in stocks and the narrative behind the correction in gold are fading. We think equities and gold will soon begin to change places.

Commodities Firms Gain Most as FTSE 100 Keeps Going Strong

It is clear that commodities prices have had a really big impact on the stock market in this period, and that this has been far greater than even the impact of the general election. With the pound not doing anything especially interesting at the time (it rose slightly against the dollar but was down against the euro), oil prices have certainly been one of the most important drivers on the market.

Warnings of a Stock Market Bubble from Major Investors

Many money & hedge fund managers are privately telling investors: Stocks have risen to unsustainable levels & a stock market crash may well be imminent. Geopolitical tensions continue to rise with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatening to explode & the US & North Korea are seemingly determined to maintain a collision course. In short – there are a lot of pins to pop a bubble.

The Fake Paper Markets & the Real Gold and Silver

Just like the artificial paper markets in New York and London that are used to keep the price of gold and silver from rising, the western stock markets are prevented from falling by a web synthetic derivative securities and fraudulent financial reporting applications. Never before in history have stock market valuations been more disconnected from the underlying fundamental economic reality.

Trump’s Stock Market Report Card Says - Buy Gold

Judging by the huge post-election rally we’ve witnessed, it’s no surprise the Trump administration is patting itself on the back. But if early morning market action is any indication, the streak ends today. It’s safe to say investors are feeling giddy as the stock market blasts into uncharted territory. As the stock rally loses steam to finish the trading week, gold looks stronger than ever.

The Next Market Correction Will Trigger Record Gold ETF Demand

Once the Great Hyped Trump Rally runs its course and the lousy fundamentals are allowed to kick in, the broader stock markets are going to experience one hell of a correction. And with that correction, we will experience another big surge in Retail Gold ETF demand. Even though Gold ETF demand is paper driven market, it is instrumental in pushing the gold price considerably higher.

The Stock Market Crash Will Be Violent - Its Only a Matter of Time

Coming soon, is the mother of all debt ceiling crises that will finally demolish the notion that Trump is good for the economy & the stock market. Fed has destroyed honest price discovery, & so the stock market has no braking or correction mechanism & will drift higher on buy-the-dips momentum until it hits a sharp object – the most dangerous market mutation to have been confected by state policy.

Rising Gold and Silver Prices Indicate a Wall Street Correction

The recent upsurge in gold and silver does point to a possible correction on Wall Street. Share prices have been hitting new all-time highs repeatedly in recent times without any further fundamental support. With US stock indices near record high levels, we are hesitant to turn bearish yet & its impossible to predict the timing of the upcoming crash. But the stage looks set, so be prepared.

Gold Investment Demand to rise on Inflation & Pent-up Selling in Red-Hot Stocks & US Dollar

Stock investors owning essentially-zero gold exposure, have vast room to buy again when the wildly-overvalued stock markets inevitably roll over. Gold investment demand was triggered in 2016 by post-Fed-rate-hike stock selling delayed until January for tax reasons. Incentives to hold until January are far greater this year than most, since 2017 may see lower tax rates thanks to Trump.

History Says Markets Could Crash in the Cruelest Month - September

What month is the great menace for markets? September… What could possibly go wrong? Turns out the 30 days ahead are peppered with land mines that could go off with…detonative effects on the market. One of them is Sept. 21. The markets have most definitely not “priced in” a rate hike. It will sell off violently if the Fed goes ahead and raises rates.

The Unique Factor that could Drive Gold & the Stock Market to New Highs

It’s not often we see a strong correlation between gold and the stock market, as the historical data tends to suggest indifference, but the recipe is there for both to soar to new heights. An increase in the spot price of gold will have an immediately positive impact on the margins of both Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton, and as such could push the valuations of both companies substantially higher.

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