Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘Equity Trading’

History Says Markets Could Crash in the Cruelest Month - September

What month is the great menace for markets? September… What could possibly go wrong? Turns out the 30 days ahead are peppered with land mines that could go off with…detonative effects on the market. One of them is Sept. 21. The markets have most definitely not “priced in” a rate hike. It will sell off violently if the Fed goes ahead and raises rates.

The Unique Factor that could Drive Gold & the Stock Market to New Highs

It’s not often we see a strong correlation between gold and the stock market, as the historical data tends to suggest indifference, but the recipe is there for both to soar to new heights. An increase in the spot price of gold will have an immediately positive impact on the margins of both Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton, and as such could push the valuations of both companies substantially higher.

How will the US Elections Affect Equities and Gold?

The experience of losing money is common in investing. But where is the certitude of loss even before your check clears? That’s the situation with sovereign debt right now. Gold is money and money is sterile. It does not pay dividends or earn income. I don’t suggest that it is the only thing that people should have their money in. But to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder.

Marc Faber Predicts a 50% Correction in Stocks - Rings Alarm Bells

Marc Faber is just one more expert who is ringing the alarm bells in stocks. Sadly, the mainstream media continue to dismiss the experts who are trying to warn the masses, stating that we are conspiracy theorist and nothing more. Even though we have been proven right in our predictions time and time again, causing the trash can to nearly overflow with tin foil hats.

A Stock Market Shock Is the Only Way Out: Deutsche Bank Analyst

The US stock market continues to hit new highs to the puzzlement of many. This run to new highs in the US stock market is bizarre seeing as the profit picture remains as muddled as ever. This is definitely not an earnings-based rally. Ironically the shock that is needed would require a collapse in risk assets for policymakers to then really panic and attempt dramatic fiscal stimulus.

August Watchout! Stocks Will Slump While Silver Will Soar

Historically, August has been a rough month for stock investors. The fall in the dollar will reflect in the rise of silver. I believe that silver is on the cusp of a rally. The silver bulls have seen a stupendous run from the lows of around $13.73 during the start of the year to the highs of $21.2 in early July 2016. However, I believe that the bull run in silver will continue after a small consolidation.

At Record Valuations - The Market is Now Too Big To Fail

When large concentration of total asset value is dependent on the market, it becomes necessary to maintain the market at all costs. The market has become too systemically important to allow it to fail. And that means policymakers have changed the function of the market. Today, the market is being used as a (false) portrayal of the underlying economy.

Gold and Silver Strong – Banks and Stocks Scary

European Banks are worth watching. The failure of even one modest-sized European bank will send ripples through the world financial system & would likely drive significant safe-haven buying in gold and silver. Valuations are widely acknowledged to be at nosebleed levels versus historical norms & individual investors are fleeing equity markets. Gold and silver benefit during a selloff in stocks.

Last 2 Times Equity Valuations Were This High, Result Was A Historic Crash

The current P/E expansion cycle is now one of the largest in history. Although equity valuations are typically highest during periods of low interest rates, the current 18x P/E stands at the upper end of the historical valuation range. During the last 40 years the only instance in which S&P 500 forward P/E exceeded 20x was the Tech Bubble (peak of 24x in December 1999).

Any Eruption of Reality will Reveal this Stock Market Rally as a Head-Fake

All the technical “buy” signals are precisely what you’d expect in a rigged rally. If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the stock market rally as a head-fake. Having exterminated short-sellers, there won’t be many who will benefit should the rally be transformed into a rout by reality.

The Greatest One Day Global Stock Market Loss In World History

Worldwide markets haemorrhaged more than $2 trillion in paper wealth on Friday, according to data from S&P Global, the worst on record. For context, that figure eclipsed the whipsaw trading sessions of the 2008 financial crisis. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Friday may turn out to be just the tip of the iceberg.

Why Goldman Is Suddenly Warning About A "Large Drop" In The Market

After recent bearish conversions by the JPM, BofA, Citi & UBS, the only bank that steadfastly held a bullish view on stocks during the recent market squeeze higher was Goldman Sachs. Not any more. With 80% of fund managers underperforming, the probability of irrational capital allocations increases & as a result there is a reasonably high probability of a large drop in the S&P500.

12 Lethal Trading Mistakes That Even the Best Traders Make

Given that markets are on a major turning point, it’s time we discuss 12 of the worst trading mistakes that even seasoned traders do. And it’s worth mentioning that I’ve been guilty of quite a few of these trading mistakes earlier. If you want to become a better trader & make money, you have to identify & rectify your biggest trading mistakes. A little self-reflection can go a long way.

Gold and the Postponed Stock Market Correction

Is it just me or is the next market correction taking way longer than it should? In other words, have the powers that be figured out how to keep the music playing better than ever? The Fed must have inflation & will do everything possible to create it. Central banks as well as markets have become aware that monetary policy has limitations. And the gold price is sniffing this out.

A Stock Market Correction Has Only Been Postponed, Not Avoided

Markets are relieved that the Fed won’t hike rates in March. But, the markets are never satisfied. Getting stock market expectations aligned with the intended FOMC policy path will not be pretty. Expect higher volatility and stock market drawdowns in April and May as markets reprice. A further stock market correction has been postponed, but not avoided.

Volatility Frustrates Traders: No Rational Explanations On What’s Going On

Traders are frustrated in a market where nothing makes sense. A casualty of this current volatility is that at any given time there are no rational explanations for what’s going on. Back & forth swings of meaningful proportion are characterized, by necessity, with a random reason generator. Better to just put it down to simple things like China’s economy or European banking system is collapsing.

One-Fifth Of All Worldwide Stock Market Wealth Is Already Gone

As bad as things are in the U.S. right now, the truth is that we still have a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the planet. Around the world, many major stock market indexes are already down more than 30 or 40 percent. Overall, the MSCI All-Country World Index is now down 20 percent, which officially puts us in bear market territory.

Will this Manic Stock Market Rally End in Tears?

The stock market is back to where it should be, i.e. in rally mode. Can the stock market completely ignore these changes and keep powering higher on the fumes of Mario Draghi’s promises and another rate cut or three in China? At some point reality will trump fumes, and the manic rally will falter and the mania in stocks will end in tears.

Got Gold And Ready For The Next Bear Market?

Given the run-up in equity prices in recent years, we wouldn’t be surprised if the looming bear market, if it indeed becomes one, will last at least as long as historic bear markets. Are we already in a bear market in stocks? In this context, we study past bear markets to see whether gold may serve as a valuable diversifier for what’s ahead. Got gold?

Stock Markets Of The 10 Largest Global Economies Are All Crashing

You would think that the simultaneous crashing of all of the largest stock markets around the world would be very big news & that this would be enough to wake people up, but most Americans still don’t seem very alarmed. And of course what has happened to U.S. stock markets so far is quite mild compared to what has been going on in the rest of the world.

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