Commodity Trade Mantra

Has the Market Finally Hit Bottom? Here’s the Answer…

Has the Market Finally Hit Bottom? Here’s the Answer…

Has the Market Finally Hit Bottom? Here’s the Answer…

Buy the dips! Buy the dips!

That’s the message Morgan Stanley is issuing today. Should we? I mean, they’re a bunch of pretty smart cats.

Well, strap in. You’re about to get the answer…

Stocks remain barely afloat as we approach the end of the trading week. Yes, the major averages shot higher yesterday. But the damage has been done. As it stands right now, the market’s just one leak away from sinking to its August lows and launching another round of Markets in Turmoil programming on CNBC.

But that’s not stopping Wall Street analysts from shouting all clear!

“Morgan Stanley has issued a ‘full house’ buy alert on international stock markets for the first time since early 2009, effectively calling the bottom of this summer’s equity slump,” The Telegraph reports.

No, the folks over at Morgan Stanley aren’t channeling 90’s family sitcom reruns. In this case, the “full house” refers to the fact that all five of its market-timing signals are flashing buy right now. The kicker? MS hasn’t flopped a full house since early 2009.

And they ain’t the only ones calling a bottom…

Almost everywhere I turn, I see folks trotting out these sentiment readings. They claim individual investors are too bearish, newsletter editors (ahem) are too bearish, and we’re in store for a face-ripping rally like we saw last October…

Does the Elevatory Go up?

But I seriously doubt this scenario plays out.


For starters, the major averages already have a failed rally under their belts. They marched halfway up August’s correction ladder—then came crashing back down again. And now we have morning rallies fading left and right. That’s not bullish action…

We should instead expect some seriously choppy action before we get a potential retest of the lows. Sure, plenty of market watchers are going to try and call a bottom over the next few weeks. But remember: it’s still early in the correction game. And it’s been a long time since investors felt any real pain in the stock market.

All three major averages remain below their respective 200-day moving averages. That means we have to give choppy and/or lower prices the benefit of the doubt until the market begins to give us clues that it has repaired the damage. It also means we might have to endure strong rallies that give us zero follow-through and plenty of fake-outs in both directions.

Remember, trying to call tops or bottoms isn’t a viable trading strategy. We’re never going to be able to time major turning points down to the tick. That’s OK. We’ll leave these big market calls to attention-seekers and big banks trying to make splashy headlines.

When it comes to buying a broken market, you don’t want to be the first sucker in line. Let’s see if stocks can get their feet under them before recklessly pushing all of our chips into the center of the table…



Courtesy: Greg Guenthner for The Daily Reckoning

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