Commodity Trade Mantra

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Everyone Is Probably Wrong About The US Dollar

Could the current US dollar rally last a bit longer? Absolutely. However, it is unlikely to move substantially higher without a reasonable correction first. From a contrarian standpoint, with everybody on the long side of the trade, it may be time to take the opposing view. The good news is that a weaker dollar will play favorably for the beaten down commodity driven sectors.

Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed

The threat of a deflation, more than six years after the last recession, remains an imminent threat. It is not just a domestic issue, but a global one. The continued hope, of course, is that the next round of interventions will be the one that finally sparks the inflationary pressures needed to jump start the engine of economic recovery.

Surprise...Everyone Was Wrong About The End Of QE

With the Fed now extracting the QE support, it is very likely that economic weakness will resurface since the “engine of growth” was never repaired. Furthermore, interest rates can remain low for a very long time when there is a lack of sufficient economic catalysts to sustain the drag imposed by higher borrowing costs.

10 Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

Strongly rising asset prices, and in this case commodity prices, have driven investor exuberance in the sector leading many to ignore deteriorating fundamentals, excessive leverage, and other financial diseases. However, when prices deteriorate rapidly, investment mistakes are quickly revealed. Here are some legendary “Do’s & Don’ts.”

Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up?

Currently, there are few economic tailwinds prevalent that could sustain a move higher in interest rates. The reason is the higher interest reduces the flow of capital within the economy. For an economy that remains dependent on the generosity of Central Bankers, rising rates are not the outcome that “stock market bulls” want.

Why The Stock Market Is Detached From The Economy

While statistical economic data suggests that the economy is rapidly healing, it has only been so for a very small percentage of the players. For most American’s they have only watched the “rich” prosper as the Federal Reserve put Wall Street before Main Street. Moreover; global deflationary pressures have only begun to wash back on the domestic economy.

5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE

Are the markets, and the economy, finally strong enough to stand on their own? Or, will the end of the current QE program be the start of a bigger correction? With central banks much more concerned about a return to recession than about asset-price bubbles, they have little choice but to step back in.

Don't Fear Rising Interest Rates? Really?

There has been much commentary published as of late discussing when the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates. Generally, attached to the heels of that discussion, are comments suggesting that investors have nothing to fear from such an event. However, is that really the case? Let’s take a look.

Alternative Measures Suggest Weaker Economy

In an economy where activity is beginning to surge, the prices of commodities also pick up, as demand for these increases. Rising economic activity leads to demand for credit & so interest rates also increase. But this is hardly the case, which increases risk of disappointment in months ahead which could be negative for markets.

5 Reasons Why The Market Won't Crash Or Will

Can this bull market last, given the current economic & fundamental variables? While we can eventually recover from a market crash, we can not regain the time lost to save & grow our investments to fund our retirement. Its critical to understand what the ramifications to your long term investment & financial planning goals will be if you are wrong.

When Fundamentals No Longer Matter

Individuals will scour the internet to find the best deal on everything from a pair of shoes to a television. However, when it comes to investing, most people disregard “value” and tend to spend less time researching the underlying investment fundamentals and more time fantasizing about their future wealth.

The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts & the Fed have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. But the Q1 drop points to underlying economic growth conditions that remain weak & concerning despite several years of healing facilitated by exceptionally accommodative monetary policy.

Is The Economic Recovery Only Statistical?

Since economic recoveries should be a function of economic prosperity across the national spectrum, is the current economic recovery achieving that goal? While Wall Street & top 20% of the population have certainly enjoyed the surge in asset prices due to Fed interventions, has the other 80% seen an increase in prosperity too?

Asset Purchases By The US Fed And The S&P 500

Periods where the Fed was buying bonds have seen stocks rally, whereas periods where the Fed was not actively purchasing bonds saw two of the largest pullbacks for the S&P 500 during this bull market – proving a historical correlation between increases in the Fed’s balance sheet & the S&P 500.

What History Says About Fed Interest Rate Hikes

While Ms. Yellen stated that interest rates could rise as soon as 2015, it is possible that it will be far longer than that. Jim Cramer said the idea of rising interest rates shocked the markets, however, in the long-term it’s a positive sign. It is natural for interest rates to rise as the economy does better.

10 Warnings Signs Of Stock Market Exuberance

Despite the repeated warning signs, the next stock market correction will leave investors devastated looking to point blame at everyone other than themselves. The question will simply be “why no one saw it coming?” When it occurs, we simply refuse to accept responsibility for the consequences.

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