Commodity Trade Mantra

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Doha Is Done, Saudi Prince Says - No Oil Deal Without Iran

In what appears to be a Doha party-pooping statement, Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman stated unequivocally that The Kingdom won’t restrain its oil production unless other producers, including Iran, agree to freeze output at a meeting this weekend in Doha. If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday.

Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

Oil producers including Gulf OPEC members support holding a meeting next month to discuss a deal to freeze output even without Iran. Given Iran’s determination to add an additional 1 million b/d of supply to an already glutted oil market, it’s still difficult to understand how “let’s freeze things at a record rate” is a viable way to permanently alleviate downside pressure.

JPMorgan Corners LME Aluminum Market, Leading To Strange "Price Anomalies"

For some months now there have been large holdings of aluminum warrants, which are a claim to metal stored in warehouses approved by the LME. Currently there is a dominant position holding 50-79% of warrants. “JPMorgan have been doing this on-and-off for a long time. The backwardation (or premium) doesn’t accurately reflect oversupply,” a Reuters source at a commodity trading firm said.

Ugly-Stepchild To Beauty Queen - Gold ETF Holdings Surge To 18-Month Highs

Gold has “seen some exceptional flows after quite a few years of being the ugly redheaded stepchild, but it’s not moved into sort of beauty-queen territory,” notes one commodity strategist as hedge fund net-long positions are the highest since Feb 2015 and gold holdings in ETPs has soared to 18 month highs. Gold is now heading for a third straight monthly gain.

Negative Rates Confirm The Failure Of Globalization: Deutsche Bank

Negative interest rates may or may not be a thing of the past, but the confusion about their significance remains. Here is Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam explaining how, among many other things including why Europe will need to “tax” cash before this final Keynesian experiment is finally over, negative rates are merely the logical failure of globalization.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

Victory For Saudi Arabia, North Dakota's Largest Oil Producer Suspends All Fracking

Reuters reports, that North Dakota’s largest producer, Whiting Petroleum, would suspend all fracking, and that Continental Resources has effectively done the same after reporting that it no longer has any fracking crews working in the Bakken shale. It was also a confirmation that the Saudi plan to put high-cost producers on ice is working, if only temporarily.

Gold Prices Are Breaking Out; Goldman Stumped

After a long time, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index has broken out on an absolute & relative price basis to put in what appears to be a meaning bottom that is bullish for gold and silver mining stocks. We maintain this bullish view as long as the absolute & relative price trends hold above the weekly moving averages, which should provide support on pullbacks.

JPMorgan: People Have More Confidence In Gold Than In Paper Money

Global CIO & Head, Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group of JPMorgan Bob Michele, who earlier today was on CNBC, admitted “Gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money. I think things have gotten out of control.”

Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central Banks Is Lost: Jeff Gundlach

In his latest communication with the outside world, Jeff Gundlach said that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce “as investors lose faith in central banks. “The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the ‘In Central Banks We Trust’ mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax,” Gundlach said.

The Real Reason Behind Crazy Volatility In Crude Oil This Week

The volatility in crude oil trading has been incredible to say the least, and has reached the highest levels since Lehman’s systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos.

Negative Rates In The U.S. Are Next: Here's Why In One Chart

The Fed will follow the footsteps of negative rates in Sweden, Denmark, Europe, Switzerland & now Japan. Will this crush money markets as we know them & unleash even more volatility & havoc around the world? Absolutely. But at this point, when every other central bank has lost credibility “what differnce will it make” if the Fed joins the party on the central bank Titanic?

GOLD: Something Seems To Have Snapped At The Comex

In the latest update from the Comex vault, we learn that a whopping 201,345 ounces of Registered gold had been de-warranted & shifted into the Eligible category, reducing the total mount of Comex Registered gold by 73%, from 275K to just 74K overnight. Meanwhile, the aggregate gold open interest remained largely unchanged, at about 40 million ounces.

US Mint Sells Nearly As Much Gold On First Day Of 2016 As All Of January 2015

First-day sales of American Eagle gold bullion coins was unprecedented, with the 60,000 ounces sold equal to roughly 75% of the 81,000 that sold in the entire month of January 2015. Silver coin sales jumped after the US Mint said it set the first weekly allocation of 2016 at 4 million ounces, roughly 4 times the amount rationed in the last 5 months of 2015, after a surge in demand.

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: Buy Gold As A 30% Bear Market Is Coming

The bear market started with the energy complex but it is a trend, which is filtering through into other commodity themes, as well as Emerging Markets, Asia and at the end of the day into the Western world. In 2016, we see gold profiting as a safe haven and as of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market.

WTI Slides As Goldman Warns $20 Crude Oil Looms

Crude oil prices continue to slide back towards a $34 handle this morning following a reiterated downbeat note from Goldman warning that oil storage levels are “too full for comfort,” that positioning is not as stretched short as some believe, and confirming that this will not end until prices near cash costs to force oil production cuts, likely around $20/bbl.

Bitcoin Or Gold: What Is More Valuable?

Mr Ferrier is alleged to have told Mr Wright gold was good security in the event the ‘funny money’ of Bitcoin failed. In December 2013 Mr Wright filed actions in the Federal Court and NSW Supreme Court suing for his share of the gold, claiming the sum of $84.42m based on the market value of the alleged Bitcoin payments for the gold.

Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Short Gold

At 1.4 million ounces the market is now in its biggest net short position ever, surpassing bearish positions entered into in July and early August. That was the first time hedge funds were net negative since at least 2006. It’s not just gold that is being swamped by negative sentiment. According to the CFTC, 15 of the 24 commodities tracked turned more bearish last week.

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