Commodity Trade Mantra

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How Much More Higher Could The US Dollar Go?

The US Dollar broke out of its multi-year downtrend and soared above 100. Needless to say, the USD did in fact strengthen a lot. After that initial leg up, the dollar has remained in a consolidation range for much of 2015. Though it recently broke out of a wedge/triangle formation to the upside, it’s not yet clear if this is a definitive move higher or more consolidation.

Is This How the Next Global Financial Meltdown Will Unfold?

As emerging market currencies decline, income streams needed to service the dollar debt declines: as income & valuations fall, capital flees, pushing the relative value of the currency down even more, which further raises the risk premium which triggers even more capital flight. The sums in play are so staggering, even the Fed won’t be able to stop the financial meltdown.

Beijing & the West Together Manipulate the Global Currency War

So why is the world of currency diplomacy now playing along with the nonsense of the IMF examining whether the Chinese yuan has met the criterion to become a reserve currency? Why is the Western world playing along with the official Chinese currency charade? Why do Western governments pursue non-market trade diplomacy so enthusiastically with Beijing?

Currency Wars Become Much Nastier During Recession Times

All central banks have printed trillions of dollars in their respective currencies under various QE programs. They are at the point where they simply cannot print trillions more without risking the collapse of confidence in their currencies. How will central banks stop the recession when they’ve used up their dry powder fighting the currency wars?

Decline of the US Dollar – The Consequences

We cannot blame China and India, or Russia if they wish to protect themselves from western systemic risk by shifting their trade settlements away from the dollar. It is becoming clear to Asian leaders at least that the dollar’s reserve status is an anachronism of the past & cannot last, a simple deduction that raises important questions not addressed for over a century.

Gold and Silver unlikely to Rally till US Dollar can Forge Appearance of ‘Health’

If & when the elite’s corporate operations fall apart due do the unsustainable debt creation & the launching of so many regional wars around the globe in the service of maintaining the fiat Federal Reserve Note, “dollar, as the world reserve currency, only then will we likely see the end of the decline in gold and silver and some degree of higher prices.

Will US Dollar Collapse Over Another Debt Ceiling Fight?

The US federal government is about to hit the debt ceiling, which stands above $18.0 trillion, and Congressional Republicans refuse to raise it. The last debt ceiling fight led to a downgrading of U.S. debt. Another blow to the credibility of the U.S. government could be devastating. Could a US dollar collapse be around the corner?

Death Of Cognitive Dollar Dissonance & The Remonetization Of Gold

Gold, the only internationally-recognised non-national money provides the international monetary solution to an economically multipolar, globalised, competitive world. As gold again begins to circulate to settle cross-border balance of payments, it resolves the perennial floating fiat currency dilemma of ever-growing imbalances & associated ever-growing debts to finance them.

RBI Cuts Repo Rate 50 Basis Points, But Rupee Rallies

I’m a fan of RBI Gov. Rajan, and I think that if he feels as though this will help offset the China slowdown. But to see the rupee rally like it has after a rate cut? That’s a surprise. I shake my head in disbelief. But, gold is down, and so too is silver, and platinum, with palladium the only precious metals of these 4 to be trading with a gain this morning.

The Aussie Dollar Gold Just Broke Out to Multi-Month Highs

After putting in a panic low in Nov last year, Aussie dollar gold soared, peaking in late January of this year. A strong rally in Aug followed by more gains in Sept, gave the upward trend a push. US dollar gold price strength, combined with a weaker Aussie dollar, sent the Aussie dollar gold price to an eight month high overnight. It closed the US trading session at $1,641 an ounce.

The Next Financial Crisis Won't be Like the Last One

It’s not that difficult to predict that the next global financial crisis will arise not in the banking sector but in a market that’s beyond the reach of central banks.That is, printing $1 trillion and promising to “do whatever it takes” won’t fix what’s broken. It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets.

Gold’s Price Movement is not a Gold Story. It’s a Dollar Story

If gold went from $1,900 an ounce to $1,100, to me, that’s a 50% increase in the value of a dollar. If gold goes from $1,100 to $1,500, I would think of that as a devaluation of the dollar. What that tells me is the story is really about the dollar. So what’s happening to gold is not unique to just gold. It’s something that is affecting all of the other commodities & currencies.

Why Devaluing the Yuan Won't Help China's Economy

The slowdown in China’s economy was set in motion when the yearly rate of growth of the money supply fell from 39.3% in Jan 2010 to 1.8% by Apr 2012. The effect of this massive decline in the growth momentum of money puts severe pressure on bubble activities. Any tampering with the currency rate of exchange can only make things much worse as far as allocation of scarce resources is concerned.

Global Markets to Fed: No Rate Hike, Strong Dollar Is Killing Us

There are many reasons for global markets to melt down, but one that doesn’t get enough attention is the strong dollar. The USD has already strengthened by 20%. The damage delivered by the rising dollar has been severe; a move higher from here might prove fatal to emerging markets and faltering U.S. corporate profits.

Is China Quietly Targeting A 20% Yuan Devaluation?

Some Chinese agencies involved in economic affairs are assuming a much weaker yuan both over the near- and medium-term. Those projections, which suggest a depreciation of over 8% by Dec. 31 & about 20% by end of 2016, were adopted after the currency was devalued this month & compare with analysts’ forecasts for the yuan to reach 6.5 to the dollar by the end of this year.

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