Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘US Dollar’

Stronger Demand & Weaker US Dollar To Push Gold Prices Higher

The peaking of US real yields and the downward pressure building on the US dollar are positives for gold prices. Meanwhile, we expect global jewellery demand & investor demand to pick up in line with the overall improvement in the global economy and in gold demand centres in particular. It would be the first time in five years that demand will be higher than supply.

While the World Binges on US Dollar, Gold Awaits the Purge

The best thing to do is continue carrying a piece of your assets in Gold and Silver to hedge when (not if) the USD falls. Gold will be easily north of $2,000 soon after the world is done converting its currency risk into USD. Then they will be left holding the bag as our Fed pulls the plug. and then you will be buying dips at $1800 and selling rallies at $2500.

The Correlation between US Dollar & Commodities is now Broken

Commodity prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar over the past decade or so, but this relationship broke down in late 2016 and the breakdown looks here to stay. Commodities generated strong returns in the Q4 of 2016 with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index moving 9% higher despite a stronger dollar which gained about 7% against major currencies.

Inflation, US Dollar, Gold & the Interest Rate Action by the Fed

The evidence of inflation is starting to emerge. When will the markets begin to see that the Fed is not serious about nipping inflation in the bud? We don’t know the answer but any rate increase could be the one that looks too timid and too late compared to the inflation data. As the markets begin to take note, the dollar will weaken and gold will once again behave like an inflation hedge.

Petrodollar Dumpers - Russia & China Dominate Global Gold Production

China is way ahead in gold production & Russia isn’t far behind. Russia surpassed U.S. gold production for the first time in 25 years back in 2014. With cheap operational costs, expect the Russian gold rush to continue. Russia and China are already actively dumping U.S. Treasuries for gold. And together they are now openly defying Washington’s geopolitical plots. Devalued paper for gold.

Did Gold Prices Really Fall Over Trump’s Speech?

If Trump pursues a weak dollar policy, it has clear inflationary consequences, which is good for gold prices & euro. If Trump pursues a strong dollar policy, it will almost certainly lead to a Chinese maxi-devaluation & to an emerging-market dollar-denominated debt crisis. That could be a short-run head wind for gold prices, but as crisis conditions take hold, gold will benefit from a flight to safety.

Reasons why Gold Prices are Rising & the Dollar is Falling

Shortly after the election, the dollar index spiked as gold prices began a quick decline; however, recently the trend has reversed. The factors shown here for upward movement in gold prices suggest more people are beginning to feel less optimistic about the future, given the current political climate and rightful mistrust of institutions like the Federal Reserve.

The Limited Impact that Dollar Strength has on Gold Speaks Volumes

The dollar has hit a six-week high against the euro. The wider forex market, however, tells us that this latest move is mostly euro weakness over French election concerns rather than dollar strength. Into this uncertainty we are continuing to see a pick-up in demand for alternative investments such as gold and silver. We see a bigger upside to gold in the short term.

Are Rate Hike Cycles Good for the US Dollar & Bad for Gold?

Gold does not necessarily rise and fall with interest rates, jewelry demand in India, or any other widely believed nonsense. Rather, gold has moved in conjunction with perceptions as to whether or not the Fed and central banks have everything under control. If you believe as I do, that everything is not under control, or if you want some insurance, then take a position in gold.

Silver Prices Hold Regardless of Dollar Strength - Dips will be Well Supported

The fact silver prices have managed to accelerate higher while the dollar has been strengthening is noteworthy. With base metals generally rallying too, it looks as though silver is attracting industrial buying. A show of dollar strength may act as a headwind, so we would not be surprised to see prices consolidate at lower numbers; but we expect dips will be well supported.

China, Price Inflation & Weak US Dollar - A Perfect Storm for Higher Gold Prices

We can see two roads higher for gold prices from here, the first would be a return of significant price inflation and weakness in the U.S. dollar. The second route to higher gold prices would be the return of safe haven buying, driven by serious geopolitical turmoil, China obviously would be at the forefront of that, and perhaps a shock to the global financial system.

What is President Trump's US Dollar Policy?

Let’s take a look at what Trumponomics really means for the direction of the US dollar. If the Trump Administration really wanted a weaker US dollar they would ask for Janet Yellen’s resignation & appoint someone even more dovish than she is. A successful implementation of Trumponomics equates to a stronger US dollar, higher bond yields & rising borrowing costs.

Gold Prices will soon Reflect the Damage Done (By / To) the US Dollar

As the reality of the ‘new’ Depression sets in, the failure of initial efforts by government will be seen more clearly. They will then step up their efforts. Damage to the US dollar would be reflected in the US dollar price of gold which could easily go from $700 to $7000 in months, maybe weeks. If you think that $7000 gold prices are right around the corner, better plan accordingly.

Buy Gold - Dump Treasuries: A Strategic Geopolitical Move, not a Day Trade

US Treasuries are being dumped and gold is being acquired by the largest investors in the world. This is being done not as a “day trade” but as a strategic geopolitical move. Those aims include the overthrow of the U.S. dollar as the benchmark global reserve currency. When that happens, collapsing confidence in the dollar will send the dollar price of gold skyrocketing.

Gold Investment Demand to rise on Inflation & Pent-up Selling in Red-Hot Stocks & US Dollar

Stock investors owning essentially-zero gold exposure, have vast room to buy again when the wildly-overvalued stock markets inevitably roll over. Gold investment demand was triggered in 2016 by post-Fed-rate-hike stock selling delayed until January for tax reasons. Incentives to hold until January are far greater this year than most, since 2017 may see lower tax rates thanks to Trump.

With US Dollar so Strong, How come Gold Prices are yet so High?

Gold is about to have one of its worst quarters in nearly 35 years, but its price is still significantly higher than it should be right now & there does not seem to be any real reason why. Gold may have dropped by over 17% since its peak in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, but it is still significantly overvalued, and Macquarie can’t work out why.

Is Now The Right Time To Short The US Dollar?

The dollar rally has been led in hopes of the Fed tightening rates in December of 2016. The uncertainty over the election is certainly weighing on the dollar. The stock markets are at a critical juncture, as is the dollar and gold. There is some anticipation that the markets have built in a Hillary victory and that a Trump victory is going to roil the markets.

US Dollar & Elections to Kick-up a Massive Storm in the Gold Market

Gold has already unwound from its overbought conditions. We had very crowded positions at the recent high – it’s looking like it’s ticking up again on the back of Friday’s uncertainty and now I suspect that will continue technically until the 1,500 mark. The current bull market in gold stocks will likely run for a few more years & the average gold stock could head many times higher.

Is Gold and Silver Bull Market Intact or will US Dollar Strength Crush it?

Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, gold and silver would be vulnerable to further losses. Ultimately, as long as Gold and silver’s fundamental driver – declining or negative real interest rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track. With inflation poised to rise, real rates are likely to decline further in 2017.

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