Global financial and commodity markets are warning that the US Dollar is in for a bout of trouble, warns BofAML’s Macneil Curry. Across asset classes, Curry points out that Gold was the first to make its low against the US Dollar, doing so back on Dec-15. The second market to turn against the US Dollar was US Treasuries, with Ten year note futures turning bullish back on Dec-26. Currently, the FX market – most specifically GBP – is breaking out and pressuring the US Dollar. Finally, the Japanese stock market continues to suffer, putting downward pressure on USDJPY and thus US Dollar weakness.
Via BofAML’s Macneil Curry,
Gold breaks pivotal resistance
Across assets gold has been the lead market against the US Dollar; having forged its base back in mid December. Now, it has broken above its 150d average (1295) for the 1st time since Jan’13. This average has been an excellent barometer of the medium term trend and points to further gains. We target the confluence of resistance between 1355/1374 and potentially beyond.
US Ten Year Notes futures set to make new highs
The TYH4 corrective pullback from its Feb-03, 126-16 high, coupled with the hold of its 21d moving average (now 125-10) says the year-to-date uptrend remains intact. When combined with an increasingly bullish backdrop for risk, this is bearish the $.
A closing break of the1.6748, Apr’11 high, would mark the end of a 4yr contracting range and target further upside towards long term pivots at 1.7145/1.7167. This could also prove to be the catalyst for €/$ to break key resistance at 1.3737 and the US Dollar Index to break key support at 79.68; all of which would be very bad for the US Dollar.
A bearish Nikkei is trouble for $/¥
The Nikkei remains in a medium term bear trend, with the break of the 100d (now 14,988) pointing to further near term weakness. We continue to target the summer 2013 lows at 13,388/14,415 before the long term bull trend can resume its footing. This Nikkei weakness is likely to maintain downward pressure on $/¥ given their strong positive correlation. For the currency pair, watch the Feb-07 post NFP low at 101.54. Through here opens the 200d at 100.21 and below.
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