Gold Investment a safe Haven? – Stormy Days Ahead.
|April 23, 2012 |||Comments Off ||
Gold has been on a Super Major Bull Market Run for around 8 to 10 years. It is now time to realize that too much of a good thing could be almost, a bit too good to last much longer. Gold has historically proven to make profit for investors when mainstream investing is at a standstill. The yellow metal proved its traditional role as the sole protector of wealth during the dramatic global wealth destruction witnessed in 2008. In times of economic panic, Gold is susceptible to wild speculations. The problems facing the world today are not going to disappear overnight. In this uncertain era of globalization and & an ever-increasing natural, as well as man-made calamities, it is imperative that we all be proactive in protecting our wealth & in securing a reasonably safe future for our families.
For all those Commodity Traders or Investors who have incurred severe losses in their earlier investments in Bullion, it is even more critical to take appropriate action now. I agree there are some more rises expected in gold & larger in silver, but do not get misled & trapped into a further larger loss triggered by unreasonably greedy expectations or baseless rumors currently doing rounds of very large rises for a prolonged period in these commodities. No investment is a sure thing at all times, and no single investment strategy is right for everyone always. Investing is necessary but profit booking & exiting at the right time is even more vital for great wealth building.
I also agree it is wise to include gold investments in every portfolio as a hedge against inflation and declining values in mainstream investments. Global demand for Gold is steadily increasing with the emergence of powerful new economies likeChina& the ever Gold-hungryIndia. Investors are converting more & more soft assets into Gold due to its stabilizing effect.
Most Forecasters & Commodity Analysts providing Commodity Trading Tips or Investment Advisory Services, now say gold will rebound from its recent biggest monthly plunge since Oct 2008 & reach a record in 2012 because economic growth is stagnating &Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved. There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system & an urgent need for safe-haven investment is crucial.
However, I would now like to highlight a few points & also some of my forecasts which stand in stark contrast with almost every analyst & investment advisor globally as was also seen around the 2004-08 period. I have been extremely bullish on Gold right since 2004 & also accurately forecasted the rise of Gold from below $400 to $850. My next Gold Forecast announced on 1st January 2008 pointed out towards a further meteoric rise to 4 strong & large upper targets – $1072, $1450, $1927 & finally the upper target range of $2215 to $2296. I was ridiculed by many then for being overly bullish, but have been proven to be absolutely correct to the last dot till now. To many, a further rise above $850 to these levels above $2000 seemed too far-fetched & impossible to be achieved.
I would like to bring to your attention that, Gold has invariably seen a decline after having achieved each of these 4 targets till now. As of now also, a correction seems inevitable. Gold is still very bullish in the longer term & on a rebound from dips, a small hurdle of $2,080 will definitely be hit first with a further rise to the final upper target range of $2215 to $2296 in 2012 as forecasted. I have been highly bullish when most were conservative & now the opposite seems to be true.
I may now seem highly conservative to many for my final upper target range of $2215 to $2296 by 2012, as most advisors are extra-ordinarily Bullish on Gold now after having witnessed the super zoom from $1450 to above $1910 in a very short span of time & some are now forecasting levels of above $3,000 to $5,000 in the immediate future. Most are expecting Gold to rise to $10,000 also.
Surprising and contrary to many, I forecasted in 2011 & strongly insisted that Gold inflows may increase gradually from 2012 onwards, thereby reducing it’s demand. Huge corrections in Gold can be expected. Gold may finally end its long Bull-run of the past 8-10 years for sometime, giving a golden opportunity to very long term investors. Silver will be the metal to watch out for first, from Jan 2012 onwards & I expect it to rise to higher levels of above $55 to around $64.
Emergency surgery (Bail outs) methods for immediate relief will prove to be the undoing for many governments. Spiraling debt through credit cards which would seem to keep on piling up on the now jobless, homeless and fate-fully, also may be hit by epidemics. Who all and how do we bail out then?
There will be new avenues for investing later on but for sometime, Cash may remain King. Investments in Gold will also be wise for the next Bull-run but, after a prolonged cooling period only.
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