On the back of dismal data this morning merely compounding the belief that whatever happens, there will be no Taper anytime soon (and record high physical premiums over spot as Indian demand surges), gold prices broke back above $1360 this morning to five-week highs. Of course, that ‘rise’ was very quickly squelched as stocks POMO’d higher from the US open; but, as Citi’s FX technicals group notes, the break of $1343 points to a test of $1430 and a bias to testing back above the $1522-32 region.
– Gold is breaking through resistance around $1,343 and should move towards the $1,430. We continue to be of the bias that Gold is setting up for a multi-year rally and a break above the $1,522-$1,532 area would solidify this view.
– In periods in which Gold does well, Silver actually outperforms. It is already setting up a double bottom which targets $24.40 and an overshoot of that area could take Silver towards $26 in the near term.
Gold is pushing higher through the 55 day moving average and we continue to expect higher levels in both the near and long-term. The next resistance level to watch in the short-term is the $1,430 area, where the 200 day moving average converges with the August high.
Through there the $1,522-$1,533 area could provide further resistance. This area held well as support in 2011 and 2012 and the break below this year led to accelerated losses. A break higher through that area would suggest to us that the correction for this year is over and that the long-term uptrend has resume (as we have previously articulated, we remain of the bias that Gold will continue to see gains in the coming years and maintain a long-term target of $3,500 – this is further supported by the idea of no Fed tapering for the foreseeable future)
We have seen over the last decade that in the periods where Gold rallied, Silver actually outperformed (red arrows). During periods where Gold prices declined, Silver did worse than Gold (green arrows). If we are in fact seeing the beginning of a long-term Gold rally, we would expect Silver to once again outperform.
Silver is now through the neckline of a double bottom which targets $24.40, in line with resistance around the $24.24-$25.00 area, where the 200 day moving average converges with the late April and August highs.
Through there $26 is an important resistance area (lows from late 2011 and 2012) and a move through there suggests much higher levels for Silver prices going forward.