Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘India’

India's Obsession & President Trump to Boost Gold Demand

The return of physical gold demand in India after two successive droughts is a huge cushion for international gold prices and with the ongoing wedding season and the upcoming list of festivals, the prospect of a further rise in gold demand looks bright. Appreciation in the Indian rupee has come as a blessing in disguise for buyers who were postponing gold purchases.

Why is India's Gold Demand, the Best Hope for Gold Prices

The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world’s top consumer of the precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummeled in 2016, but there are positive signs that India is recovering, with gold imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS.

Silver Demand in India Slammed after Demonetisation

Silver imports by India, one of the world’s top buyers, will probably shrink this year to the lowest since 2012 as the government cracks down on black money, farmers struggle for cash & stockpiles remain ample. Purchases from overseas plunged 60% to about 3,000 metric tons last year & will contract further in 2017. Investment demand for silver will continue to fare badly too.

India's Gold Bullion Demand Hit by Demonetisation - A Temporary Phenomenon

Gold bullion demand from India’s huge jewelry sector is set to recover from last year’s plunge according to dealers & retailers, as consumers make delayed purchases & the industry adapts following November’s shock demonetisation. The World Gold Council believes, this is a temporary phenomenon. The market is picking up & things are starting to normalize.

Gold Trapped Between $1220 - $1180; India's Gold Demand Key

The up-move in gold, has been gradual as investors brace this week’s slew of important US macro releases. This week’s FOMC meeting, and the keenly watched US monthly jobs report, would be looked upon for fresh clues over the central bank’s near-term monetary policy outlook and eventually determine the next leg of directional move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Indian Gold Industry Hit on Both Fronts: Domestic Sales & Exports

After demonetisation, Indian gold buyers suddenly seem to have all gone into hibernation. The Indian gold industry, recovering with great difficulty from the shock of demonetisation, has been further attacked by a sudden hike in UAE’s gold import duty. UAE, which accounts for a third of India’s gold exports has increased duty on gold imports from 0.36% to 5%.

Will China & India's Falling Demand Impact Gold Prices? Can Central Bank Gold Demand Help?

The demand for gold has been weak in India & China. The cash crunch in India contributed to the falling demand. In an attempt to constrain the outflows of the Chinese yuan, China has curbed the import of gold. US federal debt is growing at a fast rate. When major central banks increase debt as a percentage of GDP, their gold holdings often rise – a positive for demand & gold prices.

Gold Price Outlook Hostage to Uncertain Trump & India

Things didn’t quite pan out the way gold bulls would have hoped, and now they face a new year where the price of the precious metal is likely to be hostage to developments that are inherently unpredictable. The two main risks for the gold outlook for 2017 are what actually happens in the presidency of Donald Trump & how the demonetization of India plays out.

Indian Investors Stampede into Gold and Silver Bullion

For the previous year or two the Indian government had been trying to encourage citizens to decrease their demand for physical gold and silver. Because of the ability to convert the notes at banks on a delayed basis, jewelry stores in India were quickly besieged since Nov. 8th, with customers seeking to spend the banned notes buying physical gold and silver.

Gold Investment Amid Fears of Govt. Crackdown & Weakening Prices

Domestic gold prices are expected to remain range bound with a weaker bias in the next quarter because the dollar is strengthening against the Indian rupee. Local gold demand has come down drastically after demonetisation. Gold sales from wholesalers to retail jewellers have come down by around 90%. The situation is expected to remain like this till 31 December.

India to Step up Measures to Control It's Gigantic Physical Gold Demand

India’s physical gold hoard is estimated to be 20,000 tonnes and at current market price, this works out to be a massive Rs 60 lakh crore – 4 times the total value of the withdrawn Rs 500 & Rs 1,000 notes. The government’s focus will be on a permanent reduction in domestic gold demand & not just on import of gold. Be ready for more restrictive measures in coming days.

Indian Demonetization Denotes Severe Stress in the Global Gold Market

We believe that the primary objective of the Indian currency demonetization was to sharply reduce gold demand in the world’s most important retail market, India. It indicates to us that the bullion banking cabal is coming up against the wall, and that there is severe supply – demand stress in the global gold market that is rapidly becoming non-containable.

India's Shift from Gold to Silver would Result in a Massive Jump in Silver Prices

India has been trying to reduce its demand for imported gold through a number of means & may soon permanently reduce gold imports. A return to silver for consumers in India may be on the cards. Even a small substitution from gold to silver would result in a massive increase in silver prices. A mere 10% reallocation from gold investment to silver in India would nearly double world silver demand.

Gold Buying Frenzy in India - The Price Means Nothing, Security is All

Gold jumped to $1,339 as speculation of a Trump win built. But then, Trump buying was met by Modi selling, which finally overtook Trump buying. What killed the gold rally? Those who are wiser are acquiring gold at bargain prices, at good prices and at high prices. The price means nothing. But it does require some wisdom to understand this.

Gold Jewelry Buying Expected to be Exceptionally Strong

Plentiful monsoon rains in India tend to drive up demand for gold & gold jewelry among rural, income-flush farmers, who make up a third of the country’s consumption of the yellow metal. Gold jewelry sales in India are expected to surge as much as 60% over last year, during this year’s festival season thanks to the fortuitously timed sharp drop in gold prices.

Surge in Smuggled Gold Hits Indian Gold Refiners, Gold Jewelers & Banks

Smuggled gold could account for over a third of demand this year in India – the world’s second-biggest buyer of gold – potentially costing the government over $1 billion in lost revenue. Gold refiners have less than a 1% margin. If smugglers offer 4 or 5% discounts, they have no choice but to close operations. All 32 refineries in the country have stopped buying dore until market conditions normalize.

Gold Buying in India Set to Get a Boost from Strong Monsoons

Gold is more popular among lower income families, many of whom depend on monsoon rains to nourish their crops. About a third of Indian gold demand comes from rural farmers, who have traditionally converted a percentage of all crop revenue into the precious metal to be held as insurance and sold in times of dire need. Most reports so far this year indicate surplus rainfall.

Will India Revive It's Love Affair With Gold Anytime Soon?

India’s gold demand fell significantly in the first half of 2016. World Gold Council data show the combined demand for jewellery and investment at only 247 tonnes. Import during January-June was 248 tonnes, 42% lower than the corresponding period last year and lowest since 2009. Clearly, many variables are at work. Only time will tell if India’s love affair with gold revives!

India's Booming Silver Market Still Growing: World Silver Survey

Silver bullion trade in 2015 continued to be dominated by flows to India, where total imports reached an all-time high of 256.0 million ounces, rising by 16% from the 2014 level. Physical silver bar investments in India increased by 31% to 82.5 million ounces, the highest since 2008. All this despite a record silver production total in the country of 12.0 million ounces.

India's Soaring Oil Demand Provides Floor Beneath Oil Prices

India’s oil demand grew by 400,000 barrels per day in the first quarter – the fastest in the world, accounting for about 30% of the total global increase. Crude oil imports have jumped by 12% so far this year from 2015 levels. India’s oil demand could rise to 10 mb/d, a more than 6 mb/d increase from today’s levels, which will also be the largest source of growth on the planet.

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