Commodity Trade Mantra

All posts under ‘India’

Gold Demand in India is Bound to Rise - Here Is Why

One of the major drivers for demand is the growing middle class & the popularity of gold jewelry during wedding seasons. Acceptability of gold in banking and financial transactions is also on the rise. Also, 60% of gold jewelry demand comes from weddings. We have 10 million weddings every year on average. And more than 60% of India’s people are below the age of 25.

How, What & Why India needs to do to Improvise it's Gold Market

The gold market in India is in a mess. Smuggling continues big time. Seizure of smuggled-in-gold barely accounts for 3% of volumes each year. Almost 90% of the gold in the markets is adulterated. So, can the situation be remedied? Yes, if there is political will, and the willingness to take a fresh look at gold markets. Here are the things that the government should do. Immediately.

Can Indians Stop Tradition of Hoarding & Gifting Gold? Gold Target after Cash Ban

The latest moves in India are designed to force the gold trade onto the banking system in partnership with the central government to better track and tax the industry. The cashless agenda of control laid bare. There shall be no economic activity outside of State control. Cartels that play nice will be rewarded with more market share. Can Indians give up their tradition of storing & gifting gold?

India’s Hunger for Gold is Legendary - But who are these Gold Buyers?

India’s hunger for gold is not surprising – people have been complaining about the “drain of gold” into India for ages. In Q1, 2017, India’s demand for gold jewellery was 92.3 tonnes, v/s 22.9 tonnes from the US & demand for gold bars and coins was 31.2 tonnes in Q1 2017 v/s 16.2 tonnes from the US. But where in India does the gold go to? And who are the people who buy all this gold jewellery?

India's Obsession & President Trump to Boost Gold Demand

The return of physical gold demand in India after two successive droughts is a huge cushion for international gold prices and with the ongoing wedding season and the upcoming list of festivals, the prospect of a further rise in gold demand looks bright. Appreciation in the Indian rupee has come as a blessing in disguise for buyers who were postponing gold purchases.

Why is India's Gold Demand, the Best Hope for Gold Prices

The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world’s top consumer of the precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummeled in 2016, but there are positive signs that India is recovering, with gold imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS.

Silver Demand in India Slammed after Demonetisation

Silver imports by India, one of the world’s top buyers, will probably shrink this year to the lowest since 2012 as the government cracks down on black money, farmers struggle for cash & stockpiles remain ample. Purchases from overseas plunged 60% to about 3,000 metric tons last year & will contract further in 2017. Investment demand for silver will continue to fare badly too.

India's Gold Bullion Demand Hit by Demonetisation - A Temporary Phenomenon

Gold bullion demand from India’s huge jewelry sector is set to recover from last year’s plunge according to dealers & retailers, as consumers make delayed purchases & the industry adapts following November’s shock demonetisation. The World Gold Council believes, this is a temporary phenomenon. The market is picking up & things are starting to normalize.

Gold Trapped Between $1220 - $1180; India's Gold Demand Key

The up-move in gold, has been gradual as investors brace this week’s slew of important US macro releases. This week’s FOMC meeting, and the keenly watched US monthly jobs report, would be looked upon for fresh clues over the central bank’s near-term monetary policy outlook and eventually determine the next leg of directional move for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Indian Gold Industry Hit on Both Fronts: Domestic Sales & Exports

After demonetisation, Indian gold buyers suddenly seem to have all gone into hibernation. The Indian gold industry, recovering with great difficulty from the shock of demonetisation, has been further attacked by a sudden hike in UAE’s gold import duty. UAE, which accounts for a third of India’s gold exports has increased duty on gold imports from 0.36% to 5%.

Will China & India's Falling Demand Impact Gold Prices? Can Central Bank Gold Demand Help?

The demand for gold has been weak in India & China. The cash crunch in India contributed to the falling demand. In an attempt to constrain the outflows of the Chinese yuan, China has curbed the import of gold. US federal debt is growing at a fast rate. When major central banks increase debt as a percentage of GDP, their gold holdings often rise – a positive for demand & gold prices.

Gold Price Outlook Hostage to Uncertain Trump & India

Things didn’t quite pan out the way gold bulls would have hoped, and now they face a new year where the price of the precious metal is likely to be hostage to developments that are inherently unpredictable. The two main risks for the gold outlook for 2017 are what actually happens in the presidency of Donald Trump & how the demonetization of India plays out.

Indian Investors Stampede into Gold and Silver Bullion

For the previous year or two the Indian government had been trying to encourage citizens to decrease their demand for physical gold and silver. Because of the ability to convert the notes at banks on a delayed basis, jewelry stores in India were quickly besieged since Nov. 8th, with customers seeking to spend the banned notes buying physical gold and silver.

Gold Investment Amid Fears of Govt. Crackdown & Weakening Prices

Domestic gold prices are expected to remain range bound with a weaker bias in the next quarter because the dollar is strengthening against the Indian rupee. Local gold demand has come down drastically after demonetisation. Gold sales from wholesalers to retail jewellers have come down by around 90%. The situation is expected to remain like this till 31 December.

India to Step up Measures to Control It's Gigantic Physical Gold Demand

India’s physical gold hoard is estimated to be 20,000 tonnes and at current market price, this works out to be a massive Rs 60 lakh crore – 4 times the total value of the withdrawn Rs 500 & Rs 1,000 notes. The government’s focus will be on a permanent reduction in domestic gold demand & not just on import of gold. Be ready for more restrictive measures in coming days.

Indian Demonetization Denotes Severe Stress in the Global Gold Market

We believe that the primary objective of the Indian currency demonetization was to sharply reduce gold demand in the world’s most important retail market, India. It indicates to us that the bullion banking cabal is coming up against the wall, and that there is severe supply – demand stress in the global gold market that is rapidly becoming non-containable.

India's Shift from Gold to Silver would Result in a Massive Jump in Silver Prices

India has been trying to reduce its demand for imported gold through a number of means & may soon permanently reduce gold imports. A return to silver for consumers in India may be on the cards. Even a small substitution from gold to silver would result in a massive increase in silver prices. A mere 10% reallocation from gold investment to silver in India would nearly double world silver demand.

Gold Buying Frenzy in India - The Price Means Nothing, Security is All

Gold jumped to $1,339 as speculation of a Trump win built. But then, Trump buying was met by Modi selling, which finally overtook Trump buying. What killed the gold rally? Those who are wiser are acquiring gold at bargain prices, at good prices and at high prices. The price means nothing. But it does require some wisdom to understand this.

Gold Jewelry Buying Expected to be Exceptionally Strong

Plentiful monsoon rains in India tend to drive up demand for gold & gold jewelry among rural, income-flush farmers, who make up a third of the country’s consumption of the yellow metal. Gold jewelry sales in India are expected to surge as much as 60% over last year, during this year’s festival season thanks to the fortuitously timed sharp drop in gold prices.

Surge in Smuggled Gold Hits Indian Gold Refiners, Gold Jewelers & Banks

Smuggled gold could account for over a third of demand this year in India – the world’s second-biggest buyer of gold – potentially costing the government over $1 billion in lost revenue. Gold refiners have less than a 1% margin. If smugglers offer 4 or 5% discounts, they have no choice but to close operations. All 32 refineries in the country have stopped buying dore until market conditions normalize.

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