Commodity Trade Mantra

Market Insights

How, What & Why India needs to do to Improvise it's Gold Market

The gold market in India is in a mess. Smuggling continues big time. Seizure of smuggled-in-gold barely accounts for 3% of volumes each year. Almost 90% of the gold in the markets is adulterated. So, can the situation be remedied? Yes, if there is political will, and the willingness to take a fresh look at gold markets. Here are the things that the government should do. Immediately.

Having Manipulated & Acquiring Silver Cheap, will JPM Allow Silver Prices to Rise?

After starting from ZERO in 2011, JPMorgan now holds/controls nearly 53% of all silver backing the Comex silver paper derivative exchange. Has JPM conspired to keep silver prices low for years so that they could acquire metal as inexpensively as possible? Maybe. And, now that they appear to be “done”, might silver prices finally be allowed to rise? Again, maybe.

Why & How to Hedge Growing Risks by Diversifying with Gold Investment

Equity has been going up. It’s been ingrained now that you’ve got to buy the dips & again. And there’s going to be a lot of crying happening in those markets if and when those markets show an extended period of volatility. The beauty about precious metals, gold in particular, is that the longtime correlation to equities is near zero. And as such, it’s a diversifier.

Stock Market Meltdown - Real Test for Gold & Cryptocurrencies

The real test for gold and the cryptocurrencies is going to come when the stock market enters bear-market territory. Gold provided a solid safe-haven during earlier financial crisis & will likely do so again. Bitcoin and Ethereum have the potential to do so, but they are unproven and carry additional risks. It all comes down to your risk tolerance. Do you want to shoot for the moon or want stability?

Gold and Silver Investor Sentiment Sours Exactly when a Turnaround is Imminent

Commercial traders such as banks have engaged in “huge short covering,” moving into more bullish positioning, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Meanwhile, the more momentum-driven funds have sold off a large chunk of their paper silver to them. History has shown this to be a bullish indicator for the coming reversal in silver prices.

For How Long will Gold and Silver Continue to be "Rigged Markets"?

The discussion surrounding the likelihood of gold and silver being “rigged markets” has been rendered moot by way of the countless flash crashes – More recently, the one in silver on Friday July 7. Had that flash crash occurred in stocks, they would have cancelled the trades. In the silver market, the damage done by the intervention was successful in destroying morale. How long will this continue?

Beware of the Central Bankers' Malice - Trust Only Gold

It seems very clear that policy makers in the U.S. and Europe, at least, are going to try to withdraw financial stimulus and sell the need for doing so to their respective consumer bases. So there’s a conspiracy to increase in consumption & economic activity that will allow policy makers to begin to withdraw stimulus. Gold is a hedge against their failing in the process.

Insurance against Event Risks & Inflation is Cheaper: Time to Buy Gold

Gold tends to do well when other assets do badly, but it does best of all when people lose faith in central bankers. Gold’s current price means also means it is now cheaper for investors seeking insurance against other assets falling. Gold prices should recover from this latest pullback as the move higher in real rates is unlikely to be sustained and we see longer-term value around these levels.

Nothing is More out of Favor than Gold Right Now

Gold is an inflation hedge, I guess people forgot. It’ll respond. Sometimes it just takes a while to get the ball rolling. Best of all, I love all the commentary about how higher rates are bearish. Personally, I love markets that are out of favor. You can’t get any more out favor than gold right now. I have no problem waiting. I’ll be selling when all the chest-pounding, back-slapping gold bears will be buying.

Dollar's Long-term Downtrend will have Positive Impact on Gold Prices

The charts for the dollar index continue to look grim. On the 8-month chart we can see it dropping away beneath a parabolic downtrend that is accelerating to the downside. If this parabolic downtrend continues to force the dollar lower it should have a positive impact on the gold price, although it hasn’t thus far. Further significant weakness in the dollar should of course be bullish for gold and silver.

Double Bottom Formation Indicates its Time to Buy Silver for a Sizeable Rally

The Large Specs have finally given up on silver in recent weeks and their positions have shrunk steadily & rather dramatically. It is unlikely that silver’s COT readings will ease much more, if at all. We are, therefore, thought to be either at or close to an important intermediate bottom here, a time to buy silver and the better silver stocks for the sizeable rally that should follow.

Silver Price Slam-down Suggests - Something Big is About to Happen

The big silver price smashes in late June & July 7th revolve around a coordinated effort to reduce legacy short positions in the silver market. Something big is about to happen. The take-down style we’ve seen in the last two weeks tends to be followed by delivery of large quantities of physical gold and silver to the banks in the subsequent delivery month. I expect some major fireworks pretty soon.

What may have Caused the Flash Crash in Silver Prices

Silver prices have been the subject of significant debate of the past few hours as a result of a flash crash that saw the metal plummet to the $14.27 handle before roaring higher within moments. Of course, this has brought out the usual speculations and accusations about exactly what was driving the movement so we have collected a few honorable mentions that might help to explain the crash.

Clarifying the Major Myths on Gold and Silver Investments

A distinction needs to be made between physical metals markets and manipulated paper gold and silver markets. Artificially low prices serve as a disincentive to new mining production, which makes the long-term supply/demand fundamentals for gold and silver even more favorable. Here are the 6 common and current objections that gold and silver naysayers get wrong.

Gold Bullish on a Long Term Basis - Gold Bulls need to be Patient

The world is awash in too much debt, be it household, corporate or government. Gross global debt is at $152 trillion, an all-time high 225% of world GDP. At some point, central banks will be forced to engineer higher inflation rates to lessen the burden of all this debt. Realizing this, investors can be expected to embrace gold as the ultimate safe haven. Gold bulls should prepare to be patient.

Amid All Downside Noise, Gold Prices Will Move Sharply & Quietly Higher

Even if there are negatives ahead for gold prices, like the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten, the metal’s resilience this year has been impressive. And so, despite the recent noise in the gold market, we remain bullish on gold. The psychology is overwhelmingly bearish and yet gold prices are not making new lows, that is worthy of note. I think gold wants to move quietly higher.

The Most Interesting Aspect in Silver Charts is the Volume Behavior

The only interesting aspect of silver is the volume behavior. In the past few months, downside volume has been way above average, yet there has been no giving way of the December 2016 low. In a truly weak market, the December low should not have held. Volume read from the weekly gives credence to the possibility of a bear trap. We are also seeing the possibility of strong money covering shorts.

The Outlook Remains Extremely Bullish on Silver Prices

Since 2011, silver prices were trending, in a channel. Back in 2016, this trend was broken, and silver prices remain above it. Also, the volume’s been increasing as the prices are breaking above the trend. Silver remains, as I see it, one of the most ignored assets. It’s severely undervalued. When looking at the fundamentals and technical analysis, the outlook remains extremely bullish.

A Major New Bear Phase is Long Overdue in Stock Markets - Don’t be Fooled

If you study the history of the stock markets, stock prices never do well for long starting from bubble valuations. Such extreme stock prices relative to underlying corporate earnings streams actually herald the births of major new bear markets. So buying stocks here, late in a huge old bull market artificially levitated by the Fed, is the height of folly. Massive losses are inevitable.

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