Commodity Trade Mantra

Market Insights

A Buy Position in Gold - Heads I Win, Tails I don’t Lose

Markets have now priced in a 100% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Gold is just waiting for confirmation from the Fed in a few weeks. We have a “Heads I win, tails I don’t lose” situation. If you take a long position in gold today & the Fed raises rates, nothing happens to the price because the rate hike is already priced in. But if the Fed does not raise rates, gold prices will spike suddenly & dramatically.

When an Insatiable Appetite for Gold gets Diverted to Silver

India in the past has had a history of being the largest importer of gold, which it has only recently been dethroned from, due to India’s war on gold. Their appetite for gold is insatiable and therefore it was only logical to assume that a large percentage of the funds intended to flow into gold, were going to go to the next best thing – SILVER. This has and continues to prove to be the case.

The Big Question now is - Where does Gold go from Here?

Gold has held its own despite higher interest rates and threats of more. That tells me we’re seeing a flight to quality, meaning people are losing confidence in central banks all over the world. They realize the banks are out of bullets. So gold has been moving up in what I would consider a challenging environment of higher rates. The question now is, where does gold go from here?

Global Silver Production will take a Big Hit this Year - Silver Bulls to Rejoice

It looks like global silver production will take a big hit this year. We could see world silver mine supply fall by 40-50 million oz in 2017 if the trend continues for the remainder of the year. 58% of world silver production is a by-product of copper, lead and zinc production. As the market & economy continue to disintegrate, global silver supply will fall right at the very same time investment demand surges.

Gold Remains Preferred - Wild Volatility & Internet Dependency Weigh Against Bitcoin

Internet shutdowns and cybersecurity attacks compromise our democratic freedoms. When our democratic freedoms are threatened it means our financial ones are also at risk. So many investors spread the risk & hedge their bets against such events. However it can be rendered pointless if your management of your assets is reliant on internet access. Gold is as relevant here as it always has been.

Think AGAIN! - Is Bitcoin a Better Store of Value than Gold?

The bitcoin story has grabbed the trading and investing world’s attention like nothing else, hence the huge rise in its price this year. The root cause of the recent price plunge is a long-running conflict over Bitcoin’s failure to fix its most obvious flaws. But if we get a period of market stress then it could be time for the gold bugs to step up a gear as no one knows how bitcoin will react to a market panic.

Gold Investment Demand will Boom as Bearish Realities of Bubble-Valued Stock Markets Hit

Like nearly everything else in the global markets, gold prices are heavily dependent on investment capital flows. Mesmerized by the extreme stock-market euphoria, investors feel no need to diversify their portfolios with counter-moving gold. Gold investment demand will return as the hard bearish realities of bubble-valued stock markets & central-bank tightening shatter today’s hyper-complacency.

Gold is a Misunderstood Metal - Don't make the Mistake of Ignoring it

Gold was once a common form of payment around the developed world, but after World War II it’s influence began to wane. In 1971, when the US finally put an end to the gold standard, the role of gold changed for good. But that doesn’t mean gold is just an antiquated relic or a bad investment; you need to understand its place in the world & your portfolio. Here are five myths about gold debunked.

Despite Incredible Purchasing-Power Protection, Why Doesn't Gold Get The Respect It Deserves?

The empirical data suggest a modest gold allocation provides tangible portfolio diversification benefits in any investment climate. Given the unprecedented monetary, financial & asset-valuation risks now confronting investors, gold’s potent benefit of purchasing-power protection, which essentially accrues for free & portfolio-insurance value has rarely been more compelling. So what is it about gold’s performance that is so difficult to embrace?

Gold Stocks Entering Seasonally-Strongest Period - All Primary Drivers are Bullish

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. This seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. And this coming winter rally looks exceptionally bullish because the seasonal tailwinds won’t be overpowered by bearish sentiment, technicals, or fundamentals.

The New Lightest (Heavyweights) on Earth - Stocks Continue to Defy Gravity

Bull markets in stocks seem unstoppable right up until the moment they stop. Stocks continue to defy gravity. We’ve now gone a full year without a 5% pullback in the S&P 500. Traders are scooping up every tiny dip, earnings are strong, and your market leaders continue to push to new highs. Then comes a rapid crash-and-burn phase. Is there ever any warning that a collapse is about to happen?

Rally in Oil Prices is Fundamentally Driven, not Based on Speculation

Oil prices are at their highest since the start of 2017, after rising above the key $50-a-barrel mark in Sept & holding those gains. Rather than pure speculation, this move is rooted in fundamentals: falling inventories and increasing demand. The outlook for crude is no less bright as U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts financed by additional deficit spending, could also send oil prices higher.

Stock Market Crashes happen when no one's Worried about it, Not when Everyone's Worried

Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Why should investors be so concerned right now? I expect the wheel of fortune to turn and for luck to run out for the sellers. The catalysts for a volatility spike are all in place. We could even get a record super-spike in volatility if several of these catalysts converge.

Prices of Commodities to Witness Fresh Boom in 2018

The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report includes price forecasts to 2030 for more than 45 commodities. It also provides historical price data and supply, demand, and trade balances for most commodities.

Nothing will Respect You like Gold does - Invest in Gold, or Prepare to Fail

Naively treating anything other than gold like gold is the first step in financial mismanagement. Nothing is like physical, allocated & segregated gold. For a start it is all yours. Depositors should be aware of their country’s requirements when it comes to keeping their money safe in the banks. Gold is the financial insurance against bail-ins, political mismanagement & overreaching government bodies.

A Long Dry Spell of Exploration will Pressure Gold Prices Upwards

We’ve had a long dry spell of exploration in the gold mining space. Over the medium and long-term, this could lead to a supply-demand imbalance & ultimately put strong upward pressure on the price of gold. It doesn’t really matter what the gold price will do in the next few years. Production is coming off, and that means the upward pressure on gold prices could be very intense.

Fed & ECB to now Strangle the Extraordinary Stock Bull they Nurtured

The stock bull went from normal between 2009 to 2012 to literally central-bank-conjured from 2013 on. Without central-bank money printing behind it, the stock-market levitation between 2013 to 2015 never would’ve happened! Now that the Fed & ECB have started strangling this extraordinary stock bull they nurtured, the long-overdue stock bear delayed by QE, will also prove proportionally oversized.

What's keeping a lid on Gold Prices? Seems just a Play to Distract Investors

You will see higher gold prices next year on the back of low interest rates, no matter who the new Federal Reserve Chair is. A global debt crisis is building and that will be a long-term factor for gold prices. Sentiment, which has driven equity markets to record highs, could change very quickly and investors will soon be happy to have gold in their portfolio as an insurance policy.

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