Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Backwardation’

Oil Market Tightening Puts a Firm Floor Beneath Oil Prices

The shift into backwardation in the futures market suggests that the supply balance is heading in the right direction, and it probably puts a floor beneath oil prices for the time being. EIA reported a hefty draw in U.S. commercial oil inventories but oil prices did not rally on the hefty draw, because the EIA also reported that U.S. crude oil production rose last week.

The Cost of Physical Gold vs. Gold Futures

Amongst many, there is one more advantage to physical gold over gold futures. Futures have counterparty risk. You are extending credit. For a short time frame, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. However for a 10-year period, there is a risk that gold could go into permanent backwardation . In that case, futures contracts could become worthless.

Is The Selling Of Paper Gold And Silver Finally Ending?

What if gold and silver naturally act as Giffen Goods (goods that people buy more as its price increases) in the latter stages of a global debt bubble? Intuitively, this makes sense. Rising gold and silver prices should naturally reflect increasing risk to the financial system— especially counterparty risk since gold and silver bullion are the only financial assets which have none.

Gold Shortage, Worst In 21st Century... And India Just Made It Worse

One event that may stretch the already ridiculous disconnect between physical & swap-based gold, is that India scrapped a rule mandating traders to export 20% of all gold imported into the country, in a surprise move that could cut smuggling and raise legal shipments into the world’s second-biggest consumer of the metal after China.

Gold and Silver: The Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report

The dollar dropped a lot more this week than it has in any one week for a long time. Measured conventionally, the gold price spiked $51, and the silver price by $1.47. Gold owners have 4% more dollars, and silver owners have 7.4% more dollars. However, those dollars are worth less. How much less?

Supply and Demand Analysis of Gold and Silver

The prices of gold and silver, as expressed in dollars, are unstable, not because of gold and silver, but because of the dollar itself – which means that you cannot analyze their fundamentals with conventional techniques.

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