Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Base Metals’

Will Silver Prices Continue Bull Run or is a Correction Close-by?

Silver prices gained by a good margin last month with gains of around 10% in the international markets. The run-up in base metals also contributed to the rise in silver prices. The net longs in silver increased by 62,964 contracts as on 31 January 2017. However, there is a possibility of these longs getting liquidated in the weeks ahead which will pressurize silver prices.

The Sun Shines Bright on the Future of Silver

Increasing solar power generation in the country and elsewhere, along with rising industrial demand from the US and China, has pushed silver prices up 8% in January & the trend is likely to continue through the year. Silver prices are expected to continue moving higher in the year 2017 backed by a strong pick up in the physical demand as a result of increasing use in solar power globally.

Commodities that will Continue Industrial-led Rebound in 2017

In 2016, commodities began the recovery from a five-year bear market. As producers across the complex have scaled back supply, markets appear to be rebalancing. We believe that this rally will be extended over the next few years, supported by supply and demand dynamics, government action and investment demand as investors seek inflation protection.

Reasons for Silver Demand to Explode have never been Stronger

The reasons for silver demand to explode – amidst an environment of verified peak production, and historically low above-ground, available for sale inventories, have never, in my very strong view, been stronger. Which is why, I might add, the opportunity to make a year-end tax swap, at an historically high gold/silver ratio of 69, may make sense to many investors.

The Fed will not raise rates for the fun of it. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control, but what the organization really wants is negative real rates. That’s where inflation is higher than nominal rates. It does the Fed no good to raise rates unless inflation is going up even faster. Yet that’s exactly when gold does its job of preserving wealth.

The gold market is starting to look extremely oversold, so what does this mean for gold focused investor? For those with a more aggressive investment philosophy, a stomach for buying dips at support levels and a strong conviction that gold is going higher in the long term, the next few weeks may offer up a good buying opportunity.

Zinc Prices Soar Over 45% YtD, Amid Supply Crunch

MMG’s CEO Andrew Michelmore told an investor conference that his management team thinks now is the time to be betting on zinc. A sentiment that he summed up by saying, “The crunch has finally come.” The recent price action supports this bullish sentiment, with zinc prices having risen nearly 45% so far in 2016, largely driven by a number of big mine closures globally.

Gold Sentiment is Changing - Play it Safe

We could see some more downward pressure before the end of the year, but it’s difficult to make predictions because every market is somehow manipulated & managed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold at $1,400–1,500 in 2015 but if central banks step in & keep pushing equities higher, as they did this year, then $970/oz is more likely.

Copper, Nickel and Zinc Won't Be Cheap for Long

A big driver for nickel is the steel market, and this has been relatively bearish. Nickel ore stockpiles in China and elsewhere are still high, but are now being drawn down toward potentially critical levels. There is a bullish argument that we could see the nickel market slip into deficit by as early as mid-2015.

CME mulls Price fluctuation limits for Gold, Silver Futures

U.S. futures exchange CME Group Inc is considering the introduction of daily limits on price moves in gold and silver futures (the most-traded commodity contracts after crude oil and other energy products) in a bid to rein in wild volatility that has spooked investors in recent years.

Zinc or Swim: Do Base Metals Have a Future?

There are several long-term issues that impacted zinc, copper and the other base metals in 2013, and those long-term issues will persist for the foreseeable future – How are the fundamental challenges facing the global base metals markets likely to play out in 2014?

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