Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Bond Markets’

Pension Fund Deficits Stand at Record Levels - Can Gold Ameliorate the Situation?

The result is pension fund deficits today stand at record levels, even after a doubling of equity markets over the last five years. Goodness knows how bad it must be for pension funds in countries where negative interest rates have been imposed. This article lays out the problem & its scale, so far as it is known, & notes that a pension fund that has a holding in gold is a very rare animal.

The Euro Crisis: Solvency of the ECB is at Stake

How the Greek crisis is a euro crisis: ECB itself now needs refinancing as losses that ECB faces from Greece alone are about €189.3bn – twice its equity capital & reserves of €98.5bn. Given the likely collapse of the Greek banking system & default on its debt, collateral held by ECB are more or less worthless. Upsetting of the Greek applecart risks destabilising the euro itself.

Silver Price Lows and Bubble Bond Markets

T bonds & S&P look dangerous, while silver has been crushed during the past 4 years. Which of those three asset classes is likely to perform better between now & Election Day 2016? Which of those assets has no counter-party risk? Two of those assets currently trade near all-time highs, while one is quite inexpensive.

If Anyone Doubts That U.S. Is In A Stock Market Bubble, Show Them This

It would be one thing if stocks were soaring because the U.S. economy as a whole was doing extremely well. But we all know that isn’t true. Instead, what we have been experiencing is a clearly artificial stock market behavior that has nothing to do with economic reality. The warning signs are there – if you are willing to look at them.

Watch As All the Bond Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting

The FOMC Meeting this week is not just any FOMC Meeting, but the one where the Fed gives its quarterly outlook, forecasts & Yellen is asked a bunch of difficult questions by economists regarding FOMC Policy. The week is all about positioning or the De-Positioning taking place right up until the last minute of this important Fed Meeting.

Gold Prices and the Fed's Interest Rate Hikes

The sharp early-year surge in gold prices has fizzled in recent weeks Are higher rates really bearish for gold? Gold can’t drift lower forever any more than stock markets can rally forever. So instead of just blindly accepting the belief that Fed’s rate hikes are bearish for gold, why not check the historical record which proves just the opposite?

2015: If this the Year of the Slump?

There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability.

Avoid the Next Global Financial Crisis - Invest in Gold

The ultimate conclusion to the events now unfolding will take the world in one of two directions: an economic meltdown, or a dramatic re-correction. Gold, too, will struggle temporarily, if only because of the shock factor. But just as it did in the last crisis, gold will gather its bearings & prove to be a safe haven for shell-shocked investors & savers.

Forecast 2015 – 11 Forecasts from Greece to Gold

Here are my financial forecast particulars for 2015 from Greece to Gold – Both China and Russia will continue to work to convert their dollar reserves into Gold whenever possible. Meanwhile, America and Great Britain’s campaign to discredit and devalue gold will only permit their rivals to acquire more at a cheaper price. Read on…

Will the Fed Intervene in the Oil Market?

The question isn’t, why would the Fed intervene in the oil market? The question is, why wouldn’t the Fed intervene in the oil market? In a larger sense, the Fed is already intervening in the oil sector. Should the Fed turn the dial of intervention up by buying futures and oil-based bonds, it is not a new policy–it is simply a matter of degree.

Gold: The Year Ahead For Gold Investors

After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors. A number of factors, some interrelated, will drive gold prices higher. Here’s my short list of the top gold-price drivers I expect will combine to reestablish the long-term uptrend in the yellow metal’s price.

Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up?

Currently, there are few economic tailwinds prevalent that could sustain a move higher in interest rates. The reason is the higher interest reduces the flow of capital within the economy. For an economy that remains dependent on the generosity of Central Bankers, rising rates are not the outcome that “stock market bulls” want.

If The Fed Was Truly Data-Dependent, They Would Have Tightened Already

If the Fed were truly ‘data dependent’ they would have tightened already. Yet, it has been difficult to react to this fact, because of the FOMC’s recent history of fluctuating policy objectives and shifting interpretations as to how best to achieve its dual mandate. Simply stated, the goal posts & communication around them keep moving.

All Eyes on the Swiss Gold Referendum

On November 30th, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to vote in a referendum on gold. On the ballot is a measure to prohibit the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from further gold sales, to repatriate Swiss-owned gold to Switzerland, and to mandate that gold make up at least 20 percent of the SNB’s assets.

We’re in an Era of Central Bank Worship

On the subject of bond markets, “does it not seem incongruous to chase low-yielding fixed-income securities denominated in a currency that the central bank is vowing to inflate?” Why do you think that investors go into bonds despite the Fed’s intention to devalue them over time?

New Gold Rush Cometh With Global Bond Market On Edge Of “Cliff”

Should we see capital flight from US & global bond markets, gold should see gains on a par with those in the 2nd half of the 1970s. Experts said that gold’s bubble had burst when it fell from $200 to $100 from Dec 1974 to Aug 1976. But as interest rates rose, gold rose more than 8 times in 3 years & 4 months, to $850 in January 1980.

Impact On Gold And Silver By Death Of Derivatives Monster

The U.S. Banking industry utilized the Interest Rate Swap Market to destroy the REAL MARKET RATE OF INTEREST. By the banks artificially controlling the market rate of interest, they also manipulate the REAL VALUE of goods, services, commodities and yes… Gold And Silver.

Preserve Your Wealth in the Face of Financial War

Investors may not be able to change this dangerous state of the world, but they are not helpless when it comes to preserving wealth. A modest allocation of investable assets to physical gold will help to preserve wealth in the face of financial war or unexpected catastrophic outcomes.

Gold, Silver, and the Future of the Dollar

If you transfer your cash wealth from dollar denominated deposits in banks to gold denominated accounts or physical gold, paper gold, then you’re moving yourself personally to the gold standard. I think the status, the monopoly status of the US dollar as a reserve currency has already been broken and I see that trend continuing.

What To Expect From June's Major Economic & Central Bank Events

Since the last Employment report things have been relatively quiet on the economic and Central Bank front but all that is set to change over the next three weeks. Volatility should pick up and many of these events could be potentially market moving for certain asset classes.

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