Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Brexit Vote’

Gold Prices will Rise Once the Rate-Hike Obsessed Sellers are Out of the Way

After a rip-roaring first half, gold prices are plunging as we enter the home stretch of 2016. Gold futures are sitting near breakeven as we begin the new trading week. But when it comes to gold’s longer-term prospects, all is not lost. Even mainstream analysts are preparing for a bounce in gold prices once the highly-anticipated December rate hike is out of the way.

Gold Edging Close to Triggering a “Buy” Signal. Will You Buy?

Banks added 27 tonnes to their reserves in August in an effort to diversify their assets and hedge against their own policies. In a survey of 19 central bank reserve managers, the WGC found that close to 90 percent of them have plans either to increase their gold reserves or maintain them at current levels. Investors might consider doing the same, for the very same reasons.

Timeline For Gold Price Movements & The Next Gold Price Rally

It’s possible that gold could trade as low as $1285 and back near its 50-day moving average before bottoming. This area has proven as support all year. Expect a renewed rally in August back to near, but likely not exceeding much, the highs of late June & early July. Something between $1370 – $1390. Another tumble in mid-late Sept & finally, a breakout to new 2016 highs in Oct and Nov.

Brits Pouring Over Half Their Net-Worth Into Gold Post-Brexit

The speed at which the British people are buying gold is unprecedented. We are seeing people convert as much as 40 to 50% of their net worth into physical gold, (compared to) 5 to 10% in the past. The sudden surge in gold sales is more remarkable considering the British historically haven’t shown as much interest in the yellow metal as residents of many other countries.

Gold and Silver Bulls Need to Climb The Great Wall of Worry

Confidence is slippery, even when you are a metals investor sitting atop the best performing assets of 2016. It doesn’t help when 4 years of a miserable bear market remains fresh in our memories. Any weakness in gold and silver prices & it can feel like they are ready to plunge. World events are unpredictable. In bull markets some of the biggest moves happen suddenly, when people least expect it.

Silver Prices on Fire - Can hit $25 an ounce by the End of 2016

Silver has outshined its sister metal since the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union sparked turmoil in global equities markets, and the rally could lift the white metal to a three-year high. Silver prices are set to surpass some analysts’ $22 predictions from earlier this year & talk of $25, $27, & even $32 have emerged. Those levels would take prices to their highest since at least 2013.

Can Silver keep Soaring on Lack of Market Risk Appetite?

A difference of opinion is emerging in the markets over whether silver can extend its recent strong gains. The price of silver rose more than 6% on Friday and another 4% early Monday to top $21 per ounce for the first time since 2014. The uncertainty in Europe caused by Brexit will continue. Add into the mix fears over Italian banks, & investors will continue to flock to silver & other precious metals.

UK's Aviva Property Fund Frozen Due To Lack Of Immediate Liquidity

Aviva Investors Property Trust is as of this moment “frozen” citing “extraordinary” market conditions. The dominoes are starting to fall in the U.K. commercial property market, as yet another fund locks its doors on the back of outflows precipitated by the Brexit vote. It’s probably only a matter of time before we see other funds follow suit.

Could $1,900 Price of Gold Be a Reality in Wake of Brexit

The price of gold soared in the wake of the Brexit vote, going as high as $1,350 on Friday before settling back slightly. But there are indications that a lot more factors than just short-term, knee-jerk safe-haven buying are pushing the price of gold up. That means this may be more than a reactionary spike in the market. We’re going to see a whole lot more upside in the days ahead.

So Far, So Good - What's Next for Gold and Silver? Brexit Aftermath

Gold outperformed the US dollar & Treasuries as the go-to safe haven asset. Investors rushing around on Friday & looking for somewhere to flee favored gold. World financial markets are highly leveraged & massively interconnected. The collapse of even one bank or hedge fund can have vast implications. Here are some early insights on Brexit as it relates to the gold and silver markets.

The Greatest One Day Global Stock Market Loss In World History

Worldwide markets haemorrhaged more than $2 trillion in paper wealth on Friday, according to data from S&P Global, the worst on record. For context, that figure eclipsed the whipsaw trading sessions of the 2008 financial crisis. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Friday may turn out to be just the tip of the iceberg.

Alien Invasion More Likely than July Rate Hike & That’s Good for Gold

Interest rates are actually lower now than they were at the depths of the 2001 economic downturn after the dot-com collapse and 9/11. In other words, this so-called recovery is weaker than most recessions. If this recovery is weaker than your typical recession, imagine what the next recession is going to be like. The bottom line is all of this is good for gold.

Gold Price Reversal Could Trigger Speculative Washout

Large speculators have been stocking up on gold futures at a record pace & the gold miners are selling all the forward production they can lock in above $1,220. This could lead to quite the washout as speculators are forced to take losses under $1,280. Commercial trader position is at just over half its record. There really aren’t any speculators left to buy & so odds favor the shorts.

Progress of Gold and Silver Against Dollar Building Momentum

The regular negative, mainstream coverage that gold and silver receive is lessening. When larger thematic elements of mainstream media coverage become less obvious or even falter, one can take that as a sign of a change in direction. Media coverage seems to be signalling this shift in sentiment. If it’s a trend, it will reinforce the progress of both gold and silver against the dollar.

The Medium-Term Gold Market Outlook Deteriorated Substantially Last Week

While the long-term outlook for gold could hardly be better, the short to medium-term outlook deteriorated substantially last week, with an important chart reversal on Thursday that was not negated by Friday’s bounce-back. Gold reversed violently intraday to close well down on Thursday on high volume, leaving behind a classic “shooting star” reversal on its chart.

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