Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Bubbles’

Is The Mother Of All Bubbles About To Burst In 2014?

Yes, a big one could happen. Stocks look over-priced, gold and silver look beaten down, global credit & currencies bubbles could implode, global derivatives are a potential disaster zone & our politicians seem intent on creating distractions, “false flags,” & new ways to enrich the military-industrial complex and bankers.

It Can't Be A Bubble! Does One Actually Exist Or Not?

Ultimately the question is whether brisk money supply growth will be maintained and whether the economy’s real pool of funding is still large enough to allow for additional diversions of scarce resources into bubble activities. Most of the time, it’s the eventual slowdown of money supply growth that brings a bubble to its knees.

Investment Decisions Based On Fundamentals - No Longer A Viable Philosophy

A skeptic would have to be blind not to see bubbles inflating in junk bond issuance, credit quality, and yields, not to mention the nosebleed stock market valuations of fashionable companies like Netflix and Tesla. The overall investment picture is one of growing risk and inadequate potential return almost everywhere one looks.

The Fed Sees No Bubbles, No Inflation, No Problems!

Even if you believe the highly manipulated government CPI data, April’s YoY inflation rate came in at 1.95%. If annualized, April’s monthly change would equate to a rate closer to 4%. Yet, the Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come.

The Problem With Credit Booms Is That They Are Followed by Busts

Research on private sector credit booms over the last 20 years show that whenever credit to the private sector expanded by 30% or more within a 10-year period, a banking crisis & recession resulted without any exception. Credit booms always end badly & last longer than rational minds expect.

What Happens When The Giants Unwind Economic Stimulus

The world has depended on Chinese and American stimulus for years, and one implication of their tightening is a slowing global economy in 2014 – Unwinding stimulus, especially one so large and prolonged, is fraught with unintended consequences. Bubbles tend to pop, not deflate slowly.

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