Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Chinese Economy’

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Crude Oil War

For exporters of commodities & industrial materials, the shrinking of the world’s largest source of demand is bad news. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Chinese energy sector, as crude oil accounts for 6% of total imports. China’s economic slowdown, combined with a global push towards renewable energy, could threaten the already fragile levels of its crude oil demand.

A Recession Occurred The Last 16 Times This Happened

Something has just happened that has signalled a recession every single time that it has occurred since World War I. 16 times since 1919 there have been at least 8 month-over-month declines in industrial production during the preceding 12 month period, and in each of those 16 instances the U.S. economy has plunged into recession.

Commodity Crash Warns Of Imminent Deflationary Financial Crisis

Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down more than 28 percent over the past 12 months, and it has plummeted by more than half since mid-2011. The exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the great stock market crash of 2008 are happening once again. This includes the staggering crash of commodity prices that we are currently witnessing.

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy

The US Federal Reserve orchestrated an artificial boom from 2001 to 2007 through artificially low interest rates, paid for it with millions of destroyed jobs, wasted labor & wasted resources, but has resumed doing so once again. The Chinese Central Bank learned nothing from the Fed’s catastrophic experiment for its economy. They will reap the same rewards.

Stock Markets Of The 10 Largest Global Economies Are All Crashing

You would think that the simultaneous crashing of all of the largest stock markets around the world would be very big news & that this would be enough to wake people up, but most Americans still don’t seem very alarmed. And of course what has happened to U.S. stock markets so far is quite mild compared to what has been going on in the rest of the world.

The Market is Simply not Expecting Renminbi Devaluation to Happen

The Chinese seem to have changed the focus of their monetary policy from one that targets the exchange rate to one that targets domestic money supply growth. This shift will only serve to increase the divergence between the Fed and PBOC monetary policies and put more downward pressure on the renminbi.

Will China's Currency Peg Be the Next to Fall?

A pegged currency rises & falls against other currencies along with the underlying currency. As the dollar weakened from 2010 to mid-2014, China’s Renminbi weakened along with it. Now that the USD has gained 16% in less than a year, that’s dragging the RMB / Yuan higher with it, making China’s goods less competitive outside the US.

China’s Monumental Debt Trap: Why It Will Rock The Global Economy

China is caught in a monumental debt trap. There will undoubtedly be a long series of cuts before China sweats out its hangover from a $26 trillion credit boom. Debt has risen from 100pc to 250pc of GDP in eight years. It means that China is the New Greece—-but one sporting 40X more GDP and 70X more debt.

Copper, Nickel and Zinc Won't Be Cheap for Long

A big driver for nickel is the steel market, and this has been relatively bearish. Nickel ore stockpiles in China and elsewhere are still high, but are now being drawn down toward potentially critical levels. There is a bullish argument that we could see the nickel market slip into deficit by as early as mid-2015.

26 Other Ways China, The Largest Economy, Has Surpassed America

In terms of raw GDP, the U.S. is still number one, at least for now. But according to the IMF, China is now the number one economy on the entire planet in terms of purchasing power…China accounts for more total global trade than the US, consumes more energy than the US & China now manufactures more goods than the US does.

China to Obama: “Shut Up and Mind Your Own Business”

First Russia, and now China. The US is being firmly put in its place by the emerging superpowers in the world. First it was President Putin standing up to Obama over Syria in 2013. Then again in early 2014, Putin stood up to the US sanctions. Now China has sent a sharp official message to the US, warning it to stop meddling.

How Commodity Super Cycle Will Decimate Mighty Bull Market

Rising commodity prices are relevant to the Fed only in the context that they confirm biases introduced through the lens of controlling monetary policy. In reality, these cause hypersensitive dislocations in the natural rhythm; hence, volatility. There are many factors at play outside of the human ego.

Marc Faber: Gold Is One Of The Few Cheap Assets

When I look around asset prices, real estate, bonds, equities, collectibles, etc, I think the price of gold is one of the few assets that are relatively inexpensive. Every investor understands the principle of buy low and sell high. But when prices are low, nobody wants to buy. – Marc Faber

China Currency Yuan Plunges Most In Over 5 Years, Biggest Weekly Loss Ever

Yuan has gone from being most attractive carry trade bet in EM to worst as PBOC efforts to weaken currency cause volatility to surge. Is PBOC’s engineering this CNY weakness a strategy to increase volatility & deter carry-trade malevolence or is it a more aggressive entry into the currency wars?

How China Fooled The World With Fiat

China is the second largest economy in the world & for the last 30 years it’s economy has grown at an astonishing rate, as spending and investment has been undertaken on a scale never seen before in human history. And now they’ve had two technical defaults over the last couple of weeks.

10 Reasons The Market Will (Or Won't) Crash

When markets push to new highs, analysts begin to discuss the potential for the next crash because every major crash in history has occurred from market peaks when valuations, based on trailing 12 months reported earnings, exceeded 20x earnings.

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