Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

How Gold and Silver or Other Commodity Prices Are Set

The price of everything in the world has a price discovery process, which is just a fancy way of saying how prices get set. But what used to set prices and is still thought by most to continue to set commodity prices, no longer sets price over the intermediate time frame. The process has been completely upended & there has been a price setting revolution in some important world commodities.

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

Gold Market Manipulation has Created Rarest of Opportunities

The banksters, by manipulating the price of gold and artificially creating a bear market, have created what will likely turn out to be one of the greatest opportunities ever seen. It’s time for price to swing in the other direction. And it’s going to swing so far in the other direction, that I have no doubt before it is over this will be the largest bull market the world will ever see.

The Rally in Commodity Prices has Surprised Many - Will it Continue?

The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to cause an improvement in market internals. But will the rally actually continue? As always, there are arguments – for & against.

Silver Breakout Indicates A Dramatic Bull Move Higher

Silver prices on a weekly basis have broken above the six month forward looking average, indicating that trending behavior could result. The silver breakout shows like it could begin a bull move higher. While silver might be on a bull market run higher, there could be intermediate bumps in the uptrend and a potential re-testing of the break-out region.

Waiting for the Charts to Confirm the Change In Gold And Silver Market Trends

Buying and holding physical gold and silver is for the preservation of purchasing power. Buying or selling in the paper gold and silver futures market is purely for speculative purposes & the rigged exchanges have just about ruined that venue. Do not listen to what people are saying about the markets. Look at what the markets are saying through charts.

Silver Price Forecast: A Big Reason Why Silver Is Set To Soar

The stock market has been the biggest obstacle to a rise in precious metals, however, the bull market there seem to have come to an end. This leg of the bull market for silver will be different to the previous leg (2001 to 2011). With silver and gold almost being the only great investment options over the coming years, we will see a massive silver and gold bubble.

Gold - It Is The Only Sound Money There Is

Measured in gold, it is the price of the dollar falling that makes sense of what is happening. Gold’s purchasing power is considerably more stable than that of paper currencies over the long term. We do not have to make guesses over gold’s future purchasing power. The future price of gold depends on what happens to the purchasing power of the paper currencies in which it is measured.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

60% Gains in 2 Months & Gold Stocks Are Just Getting Started

We’re not ready to call the bottom in mining stocks yet, but gold stocks are the exception. Gold stocks provide leverage to the price of gold. A 10% jump in the price of gold can cause gold stocks to surge 30%…or more. The price of gold has surged 17% this year, making it the top performing asset of 2016. Gold’s big move has triggered a powerful rally in gold stocks.

Gold: Not Just Another Commodity, A Safe-Haven in Times of Uncertainty

Mainstream media pundits, economists, and journalists alike love to lump gold in with other commodities. They put it in the same category as oil, copper, wheat, natural gas, and other things that come out of the ground. Gold historically attracts capital flows in ways that these other commodities do not. Gold is a superior safe-haven asset to own in times of financial duress and uncertainty.

Is The Rally Beginning, Or Is That It For Gold Prices?

Following the sharp fall back in gold prices to near US$1,200 an ounce, Bloomberg’s headline said ‘Gold coming back down to earth’. Gee, sounds scary. Is that it for gold then? Is the bear market about to resume? My personal view: As long as the price doesn’t fall back below US$1,160, gold looks good for another move higher, which would put an end to the bear market.

The Fed Blinked; Dollar Plunged; Gold Rallied

Gold has fallen for the last few years based on this false belief that everything is great and we’re going to have a return to normalcy, and the Fed’s going to shrink its balance sheet. Nothing could be further from the truth. This gold price today, is at the highest it has been since the Fed hike. And this collapse in the dollar today is just the beginning.

Silly Myths about Gold during Rising Interest Rates

The myth of rising rates being bad for hard assets persists in spite of data that show the exact opposite is true. Meanwhile, spot gold prices have traded below mining production costs for much of the year – presaging supply destruction in the months ahead. That is a far more important development in the outlook for precious metals markets than anything the Fed did or said this week.

Why "Supply & Demand" Doesn't Work For Oil Prices

The costs of producing oil continue to rise, as a result of diminishing returns, so this fall in oil prices is clearly a problem. Low oil prices make future production unprofitable; it also leads to an increasing number of debt defaults. It is also inevitable that the price of oil must stop rising at some point because of the adverse impact on spendable income of consumers.

Gold Prices Nearing a Secular Support

The long term chart of gold shows that we are very close to secular support, which goes back several decades. Old resistance becomes support, so the 1980 and 2008 peaks will be acting a strong support. Moreover, support coincides with the psychological level of 1,000 USD. In sum, we believe the downside is limited. We have reached huge support areas in 3 leading assets.

Copper Hits Fresh Lows Not Seen Since March 2009

China is facing an unprecedented drop in refined copper imports as a slowing economy erodes demand. Concerns metals demand is ebbing deepened as Codelco, the biggest copper producer, cut its surcharge for sales to China by 26 percent next year. The reduction highlighted waning consumption in the Asian country.

Have Commodities Reached an Inflection Point?

Most commodities, including crude oil, metals and grains, are priced in U.S. dollars. They therefore share an inverse relationship. When the dollar weakens, prices tend to rise. And when it strengthens, prices fall, among other past ramifications. We might very well have reached an inflection point for commodities, which opens up investment opportunities.

What Does It Mean If The Fed Hikes Rates... And If It Doesn't

Here is an oddly accurate explanation of what it means if the Fed does hike rates on September, and alternatively, what it means if Yellen punts once again, and leaves the decision to the October or December meeting, or just punts to 2016 and onward altogether. As a reminder, Goldman does not expect the Fed to hike on September 17.

Gold Prices Actually RISE After Interest Rates are Hiked

Conventional wisdom says that rising rates are bad for gold prices. HSBC’s Global Research team found that gold prices have actually risen the last four times rate hikes began. History shows that gold prices also fall leading into a rate hike and generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike.

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