Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

Gold and Silver at Never-to-be-seen-Again Prices vs Financial Assets

The world is now entering the most dangerous period since the end of WWII. Real assets are at historical low against financial assets. Real assets such as commodities (including gold and silver) are even more oversold. Investors still have a unique opportunity to acquire physical gold and silver at prices which will not be seen for a very, very long time, if ever.

The Correlation between US Dollar & Commodities is now Broken

Commodity prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar over the past decade or so, but this relationship broke down in late 2016 and the breakdown looks here to stay. Commodities generated strong returns in the Q4 of 2016 with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index moving 9% higher despite a stronger dollar which gained about 7% against major currencies.

Investors' Bullish Commodity Bets Hit Record on Signs of Growth

Rising interest in commodities reflects a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when these markets fell to historic lows that wiped away all gains from the 2000s. Booming commodity prices attracted new producers, flooding markets for everything from oil & gas to aluminum & wheat. As signs of inflation & improving global demand have returned, investors are beginning to pile back into commodities.

Will Silver Prices Continue Outpacing Gold Prices In 2017?

Precious metals are off to the races in the first six weeks of 2017, as returns in both gold and silver are beating the S&P 500. The current technical chart pattern for silver prices is stronger than gold. The silver market is trading above its 50-day & 100-day moving averages, which are bullish signals for trend following traders. Why are silver prices outperforming gold? Here are some solid reasons.

Fundamental & Technical Views in The Commodity Markets

Let’s take a look at some key commodity components to see what’s going on right now & how it might be helpful. Historically, we tend to see strong moves in commodities with converse movements in the US Dollar. If you have a good scent on where Commodities are headed & that is confirmed with US Dollar moving in opposite directions, you have found a good theme that could trade & ride for a while.

Why It’s High Time to Consider Emerging Market Stocks

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emerging markets grew 4.1% last year. For perspective, the U.S. economy grew 1.6%. For 2018 the EMs will grow 4.8%, compared to 2% U.S. economy growth. Commodity prices have taken off. Higher commodity prices could be the catalyst that emerging market stocks have been waiting for.

British Assets play second Fiddle to Gold on Geopolitical Fears

The British bank’s investor sentiment index climbed to 6.1% in Feb, its highest level since April 2016, as UK investors continued to ride the sentiment wave. However, of all the assets, gold proved the most popular, rising 5.59% between Jan & Feb to a 46.37% approval rating. This is further evidence that “investor optimism is tempered by the need to shield against persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

What Makes Goldman Sachs Majorly Bullish On Commodities

Commodities ended positively in 2016 for the first time in six years, so there should be further room to run. When business optimism goes up, capital expenditure also goes up & when capex goes up, commodities follow. Goldman has been neutral on commodities, recommending an overweight position only 4 times in the last 20 years. So now when it is become bullish, investors should pay attention.

Gold to Steam Ahead on Uncertainty, Despite a Strong Dollar

Despite the strength of the dollar, gold is on an upward trajectory as investors look for a safe haven in an increasingly uncertain world. We think that the gold market is targeting $1,250/oz to the upside so long as we stay above $1,220/oz support. One of the factors driving investors towards gold – uncertainty over the outcome of the upcoming French presidential elections.

Investors Shift Back into Gold as Trump’s Honeymoon Period Ends

Following the Nov election, outflows from gold ETFs & other products accelerated. But now, just two weeks into Trump’s term as president, the gold bulls are banging the drum, with several large hedge fund managers taking a contrarian bet on the precious metal. Following Trump’s comment that it was “too strong”, the U.S. dollar declined, helping gold prices rise.

Commodities that will Continue Industrial-led Rebound in 2017

In 2016, commodities began the recovery from a five-year bear market. As producers across the complex have scaled back supply, markets appear to be rebalancing. We believe that this rally will be extended over the next few years, supported by supply and demand dynamics, government action and investment demand as investors seek inflation protection.

How Gold and Silver or Other Commodity Prices Are Set

The price of everything in the world has a price discovery process, which is just a fancy way of saying how prices get set. But what used to set prices and is still thought by most to continue to set commodity prices, no longer sets price over the intermediate time frame. The process has been completely upended & there has been a price setting revolution in some important world commodities.

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

Gold Market Manipulation has Created Rarest of Opportunities

The banksters, by manipulating the price of gold and artificially creating a bear market, have created what will likely turn out to be one of the greatest opportunities ever seen. It’s time for price to swing in the other direction. And it’s going to swing so far in the other direction, that I have no doubt before it is over this will be the largest bull market the world will ever see.

The Rally in Commodity Prices has Surprised Many - Will it Continue?

The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to cause an improvement in market internals. But will the rally actually continue? As always, there are arguments – for & against.

Silver Breakout Indicates A Dramatic Bull Move Higher

Silver prices on a weekly basis have broken above the six month forward looking average, indicating that trending behavior could result. The silver breakout shows like it could begin a bull move higher. While silver might be on a bull market run higher, there could be intermediate bumps in the uptrend and a potential re-testing of the break-out region.

Waiting for the Charts to Confirm the Change In Gold And Silver Market Trends

Buying and holding physical gold and silver is for the preservation of purchasing power. Buying or selling in the paper gold and silver futures market is purely for speculative purposes & the rigged exchanges have just about ruined that venue. Do not listen to what people are saying about the markets. Look at what the markets are saying through charts.

Silver Price Forecast: A Big Reason Why Silver Is Set To Soar

The stock market has been the biggest obstacle to a rise in precious metals, however, the bull market there seem to have come to an end. This leg of the bull market for silver will be different to the previous leg (2001 to 2011). With silver and gold almost being the only great investment options over the coming years, we will see a massive silver and gold bubble.

Gold - It Is The Only Sound Money There Is

Measured in gold, it is the price of the dollar falling that makes sense of what is happening. Gold’s purchasing power is considerably more stable than that of paper currencies over the long term. We do not have to make guesses over gold’s future purchasing power. The future price of gold depends on what happens to the purchasing power of the paper currencies in which it is measured.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

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