Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Commodity Prices’

Excessive Bearishness Indicates, Commodities Perfectly Poised for a Major Upswing

The benchmark Bloomberg Commodity Index lost value in five of the past six years, down so far in 2017 too, touching a 13-month low in early deals on Tuesday. The commodities-to-stocks ratio at a historic low today (extreme level rarely seen over the past five decades), suggests “real” assets could once again be set to beat financial assets over the next several years.

Commodity Cycle in Early Stages of Turning Bullish, Buy & Hold Gold and Silver

As a resource investor, it’s important to have some idea of whether you’re investing in a commodity at a time in the cycle when it’s favorable to do so. Chart reading, combined with supply & demand fundamentals, can help investors identify favorable times to be a buyer or seller. Right now, the cycle appears to be in the early stages of turning bullish for commodity prices.

Analysis - The Macroeconomic Drivers of the Gold Price

There are essentially two types of gold price drivers worth discussing: measurable ones and those that cannot be measured. Most of the “measurable” macroeconomic fundamentals that are considered important drivers of the gold price are either mixed/neutral or bearish at the moment. However, there are good reasons to believe that several of them will turn gold-bullish.

The Correlation between US Dollar & Commodities is now Broken

Commodity prices have traded in a strong inverse relationship with the US dollar over the past decade or so, but this relationship broke down in late 2016 and the breakdown looks here to stay. Commodities generated strong returns in the Q4 of 2016 with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index moving 9% higher despite a stronger dollar which gained about 7% against major currencies.

Investors' Bullish Commodity Bets Hit Record on Signs of Growth

Rising interest in commodities reflects a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when these markets fell to historic lows that wiped away all gains from the 2000s. Booming commodity prices attracted new producers, flooding markets for everything from oil & gas to aluminum & wheat. As signs of inflation & improving global demand have returned, investors are beginning to pile back into commodities.

Why It’s High Time to Consider Emerging Market Stocks

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emerging markets grew 4.1% last year. For perspective, the U.S. economy grew 1.6%. For 2018 the EMs will grow 4.8%, compared to 2% U.S. economy growth. Commodity prices have taken off. Higher commodity prices could be the catalyst that emerging market stocks have been waiting for.

Gold Prices Lose Steam After Post-FOMC Rally, May Turn Lower

Gold prices struggled to find follow-through after posting the largest daily gain in two weeks following the FOMC rate decision. Initial elation at the flattening of the central bank’s projected rate hike path in the immediate aftermath of the policy announcement may be giving way to the realization that Chair Yellen seemed to all but promise a rate hike in December.

Will The Price of Silver Take a Breather Before Another Rally Kicks Off?

The price of silver has emerged as the perfect compensation for those whom the market inflicted losses last year. The price of silver appears set for a correction, which suggests the overbuying activity that took place in June could witness several cash outs in the coming weeks. But the overall direction of commodity prices suggests that this could just be a breather before another rally kicks off.

Silver Measures Wealth While Gold Stocks Increase It

Despite gold (& silver) & gold stocks (& silver) being connected; they operate on different cycles. It is for this reason that gold & silver bottomed around 2001, whereas many gold and silver stocks only bottomed around 2015/2016. What has been despair & disappointment, due to the lack of gold and silver stock performance, is now the reason for great opportunities.

How Gold and Silver or Other Commodity Prices Are Set

The price of everything in the world has a price discovery process, which is just a fancy way of saying how prices get set. But what used to set prices and is still thought by most to continue to set commodity prices, no longer sets price over the intermediate time frame. The process has been completely upended & there has been a price setting revolution in some important world commodities.

Rising Commodity Prices Signal Inflation - Purchasing Power Collapse

Asset inflation is increasingly spilling over into commodities, the feedstock for final goods. Unless commodity prices start falling soon, they are certain to drive up record price inflation, despite the lack of economic activity in the advanced economies. The official line, that there is almost no price inflation, is misleading everyone. Monetary inflation withdraws purchasing power from the masses.

Why We Need Oil Prices to Rise to $120 Per Barrel or More

When oil prices fall from $100 per barrel to $50, the incomes of a large share of people are adversely affected. This drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items & is also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house.

A Technically Reasonable Correction in Gold Prices

For those who persist in looking at gold as an investment, the fall in gold prices in May is simply within the bounds of a normal correction. But they would be missing a vital point & that is by buying gold they are selling an inferior form of money. Not only is the dollar already demonstrably overvalued when priced in gold, but there is a growing inevitability of a further, substantial declines.

Bull Market in Commodities - Central Bankers to be Blessed with Inflation Soon

Commodities are now nearing bull-market territory after rebounding from the lowest level in at least 25 years. Investors have poured more than $17 billion into exchange-traded products linked to commodities since the start of the year. Sharply rising commodity prices since the beginning of the year are a warning sign that perhaps the inflationary times have begun.

The Rally in Commodity Prices has Surprised Many - Will it Continue?

The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to cause an improvement in market internals. But will the rally actually continue? As always, there are arguments – for & against.

Inflation: A Semantic Change Worth Noting

The concepts of inflation & deflation have been completely misconceived by the public and economists alike. The semantic revolution has changed the traditional connotation of these terms. What people call inflation or deflation is no longer the increase or decrease in the supply of money, but its inexorable consequences, the tendency toward a rise or a fall in commodity prices & wage rates.

Why the Fall in Oil Prices is a Problem for Everyone

The increase of oil prices during the ‘70s caused inflation and recession in Europe & the US while oil producers were building a trade surplus & currency reserves. On the other end, in the late ‘80s & all of the ‘90s, the collapse of commodity prices contributed to a long period of economic growth in industrialized countries & caused serious problems for some oil producers.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

Gold Deposits Worth $2-$3B That Can Be Bought Now For $15Mn

Think about a company that has a very, very large gold deposit. This company 5 years ago would have had (while only owning half the deposit) a $2 billion market cap with one of the biggest copper-gold porphyry deposits in the world. Now it owns the entire deposit and has about an $80 million market cap for the whole deposit. You get twice as much for about 4% of the price.

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