Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Consumer Confidence’

Rate Hike Largely Priced into Gold and Silver - What about Rationality in Sell-off?

Could the FED finally raise rates before 2016 draws to a close? That sounds plausible in theory, but there are a number of factors that do not support a rate hike in the near term. But even if they do hike rates, this move is already largely priced into gold and silver. We should question the rationality of this sell off. After all, the gold price often moves higher along with interest rates.

RBI Cuts Repo Rate 50 Basis Points, But Rupee Rallies

I’m a fan of RBI Gov. Rajan, and I think that if he feels as though this will help offset the China slowdown. But to see the rupee rally like it has after a rate cut? That’s a surprise. I shake my head in disbelief. But, gold is down, and so too is silver, and platinum, with palladium the only precious metals of these 4 to be trading with a gain this morning.

Global Economy Back In Contraction, First Time Since 2012: Goldman

How much longer the rigged, HFT and central bank-manipulated “markets” can continue to ignore what is now a global contraction (from which the US is now clearly not decoupling courtesy of the 30 out of 35 economic misses just in February following today’s latest Philly Fed miss) is anyone’s guess.

Data Driven or Driven Data: Economy

While there are a many types of economic data releases, 2 reports have risen above the rest in importance: Quarterly GDP estimates issued by BEA & monthly jobs report issued by BLS & both have been recently coming up roses. Almost all the other significant data, have been ignored or, when that proves impossible, rationalized away.

Deflation comes Knocking at the Door

The economic establishment associates deflation, or falling prices, with lack of demand. If it is allowed to continue, deflation will lead to business failures & ultimately bank insolvencies due to contraction of bank credit. Therefore, the reasoning goes, demand and consumer confidence must be stimulated to ensure this doesn’t happen.

"Off The Grid" Indicators Suggest US Economy Anything But On Solid Ground

In summary, this turn through our Off the Grid indicators show a U.S. economy that is still only gradually on the mend. Consumers are no longer as afraid of systemic failure of the banking system, hence the decline in gold and silver coin demand. At the same time, food insecurity is still an issue and food inflation is on the rise.

QE Ending Because It Was Successful? Then Here Are A Few Questions

Certainly, QE-induced perpetually rising asset prices & sinking volatility, likely boosted consumer confidence through the interpretation of lofty prices as ‘all must be well’. However, those aspects dangerously conspire to produce a false perception about the true state of economic fundamentals. Some simple questions need answers.

Deadbeat Nation: A Shocking 77 Million Americans Face Debt Collectors

A new research says about 77 million – a stunning number, Americans have a debt in collections. But how is it possible that tens of millions of Americans are in such dire straits? Wages have barely kept up with inflation during the 5 year recovery, as per Labor Department figures. But.. recovery? And consumer confidence at 2007 highs?

Financial Markets - How Effective Have The Fed's QE Programs Been?

The rise & gains in the financial markets have come at a time when corporate profits are slowing; economic growth remains weak and geopolitical tensions have been on the rise. This is solely due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections into the financial markets. How this all ends is really anyone’s guess.

Velocity Of Money In U.S. Falls To All-Time Record Low

When an economy is healthy, there is lots of buying – selling & money tends to move around quite rapidly. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy is the exact opposite of that right now. Discussions about the money supply can get very complicated & that can cause people to tune out, but it doesn’t have to be that way.

China's First Default Is Coming: Here's What To Expect

With a large volume of trust products scheduled to mature this year, who bears the losses in the event of a default could set an important precedent. Policymakers may see, the default of a trust in current circumstances, as having less risk of contagion than some other shadow banking products.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Plunges The Most In 2 Years

From 80.2 in Sept, Consumer confidence collapsed to 71.2 (the largest MoM drop in 2 years) to its lowest in six months, far below expectations – It appears the Fed has lost its wealth effect inspiration and once again we remind that all about confidence and hope appears to be fading.

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