Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil demand’

Will The Rally In Crude Oil Prices End Today?

The market sell off on product market concerns did not lead any notable change in crude oil fundamentals. Refiners have yet to pull back meaningfully on crude oil purchases & crude oil inventory builds are only starting to turn bearish in both the weekly US statistics and globally. US crude oil inventories are set to build above normal over the coming months.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil Prices To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. Putting a number to his call: oil prices will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Crude Oil War

For exporters of commodities & industrial materials, the shrinking of the world’s largest source of demand is bad news. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Chinese energy sector, as crude oil accounts for 6% of total imports. China’s economic slowdown, combined with a global push towards renewable energy, could threaten the already fragile levels of its crude oil demand.

Iran Offers Discounts On Asian Crude Oil, Hits Saudi Where It Hurts Most

Iran has introduced a discount on the June contract for its heavy crude oil going to Asia, just after Saudi Arabia announced a price increase for its own June contract for the continent. With the discount, Iranian crude oil will be noticeably cheaper for Asian clients than both Saudi and Iraqi crude. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing a game of barrels & Asia is the ultimate prize.

Crude Oil Prices Spike After EIA Reports Surprise Draw

The EIA sees non-OPEC production dropping 0.7 million bpd this year, while it sees OPEC production up 0.9 million bpd this year & up an additional 0.7 million bpd in 2017 (h/t Iran). It now pegs crude oil demand growth at 1.4 million bpd for this year (up 0.3 million bpd from last month), with the increase in large part due to higher Chinese and Indian demand.

Crude Oil At $20 Is Now A Distinct Possibility As Chinese Demand Wanes

Importantly for crude oil is the fact that China’s worsening economic situation could cut into the country’s crude oil demand. As the world’s principle driver of crude oil demand suddenly starts slowing to more pedestrian levels of growth, the oil markets are very much feeling the effect. As Goldman Sachs predicted, crude oil prices might indeed fall to $20s per barrel.

7 Reasons Why Oil Could Fall Even Lower Before Christmas

While OPEC has been reticent and reluctant to defend its oil production levels this year, Russia has been unabashedly boosting exports after six years of declines. As refinery improvements have caused less domestic crude oil demand, this has opened up a window of opportunity for the country to export more.

Who Is To Blame For The Global Crude Oil Supply Glut? (Hint: Not Iran)

A long time will pass before significant Iran crude oil may flood developed markets & yet even without Iran crude oil, the market has recently seen a surge in supply and production over the past few months, which has been the true driver of most recent slide in prices. But who is the culprit then to blame for the most recent downturn in crude oil prices?

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