Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil Exports’

Strong Buying Continues To Fuel The Oil Price Rally

While it is too soon for the latest CFTC data to reflect the market’s response to the OPEC decision, the forward curve is giving us a good indication of what has happened. Short positions by speculators have been closed out amid the post-OPEC meeting euphoria, while oil producers have snapped up short positions along the forward curve, hedging future oil production over the coming years.

OPEC’s Gloomy Long-Term Outlook For The Oil Market

Given the election is dominating much of the movement in markets today, and given the timely release of OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, today’s post digs into some of the longer-term trends emerging in the oil market. Here are six things to consider. Developing nations will lead demand growth (no surprise there), driven by the transportation sector.

Crude Oil Prices Spike After EIA Reports Surprise Draw

The EIA sees non-OPEC production dropping 0.7 million bpd this year, while it sees OPEC production up 0.9 million bpd this year & up an additional 0.7 million bpd in 2017 (h/t Iran). It now pegs crude oil demand growth at 1.4 million bpd for this year (up 0.3 million bpd from last month), with the increase in large part due to higher Chinese and Indian demand.

Why North-American Oil Is Positioned To Win In The Long-Run

Not only are North American oil producers displacing non-North American imports from the U.S. market, U.S. producers are competing for share in foreign crude oil and petroleum product import markets. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports at the end of 2015 will increase U.S. exports. The “growing volumes of exports” from the U.S. are now “spooking the markets.”

Why OPEC Oil Production Freeze Could Pave The Way For Actual Cuts

The purpose of the Doha agreement is to put a floor under crude oil prices—and as a first step in raising prices in the future. The freeze is a starting point, which, over time could lead to production cuts as major non-North American producers gain confidence in the intentions of their fellow producers and therefore bring forward balancing the global crude oil market.

Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound

The global economic unease may begin to reach American shores. Although an economic slowdown is no doubt a negative for oil prices, the news could provide enough justification for the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. A delay in a rate hike could likely push up WTI and Brent.

EIA On Board With Lifting U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban

The EIA studied the prospect of crude oil exports in response to questions from Congress, and it builds on several prior reports completed by the agency over the past year and a half. The report is full of caveats and other drawbacks, but the headline takeaway could fuel political momentum to remove the export ban.

Who Is To Blame For The Global Crude Oil Supply Glut? (Hint: Not Iran)

A long time will pass before significant Iran crude oil may flood developed markets & yet even without Iran crude oil, the market has recently seen a surge in supply and production over the past few months, which has been the true driver of most recent slide in prices. But who is the culprit then to blame for the most recent downturn in crude oil prices?

$20 Oil Looms As Iran-Nuclear Deal Nears Deadline

Iran is a sleeping oil giant holding 9% of the world’s proven oil reserves & with an estimated 2m barrels per day of excess supply already sloshing around international markets, any increase in Iranian output could easily trigger a further rout in oil prices. OPEC may clamp down on this in June, but by then oil may already be selling for $20.

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