Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil Prices’

Gold Prices Lose Steam After Post-FOMC Rally, May Turn Lower

Gold prices struggled to find follow-through after posting the largest daily gain in two weeks following the FOMC rate decision. Initial elation at the flattening of the central bank’s projected rate hike path in the immediate aftermath of the policy announcement may be giving way to the realization that Chair Yellen seemed to all but promise a rate hike in December.

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

Gold Prices Soften While Fed Officials Hard-Sell Rate Hike Hopes

Gold prices corrected gently lower after testing trend line resistance set from early July. Near-term support is at 1333.62, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fed officials may rekindle volatility via bits of guidance before the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period. Hawkish overtones may boost rate hike speculation, boosting the US Dollar and weighing on gold prices.

Crude Oil Enters Bull Market Amid Output Freeze Talk

An emphasis by oil companies on frugality in operations mean a certain amount of cost-cutting should be sustained in the coming years. Slashed expenditures in the oil industry are expected to add up to $1 trillion dollars over the 2015 – 2020 period. Dollar weakness & production freeze hopes combine again to rally crude oil prices higher. Here are 5 things to consider in crude oil markets today.

Deemed Necessary but Progressively Ineffective Monetary Injections will Support Gold

In the coming months, the central banks of advanced economies will begin to suffer from monetary exhaustion, possibly starting in Japan where the debt burden is now 250 percent of the GDP. As monetary injections will be seen as necessary but progressively ineffective, investors’ confidence in fiat currencies is likely to decline as they will add their gold purchases.

End of Driving Season Means More Declines In Crude Oil Prices

The driving season ends next month, which is when most refineries shut down for maintenance after operating at near-full capacity during the summer months. This is—historically—when gasoline demand subsides. The end of summer travels is also when gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. could increase, further pushing down crude oil prices.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

Brace for a Correction in Gold, Crude Oil Prices on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

Souring sentiment may reflect pre-positioning ahead of next week’s potent news-flow – notably, the FOMC rate decision – with traders using a lull in high-profile event risk to book profits & move toward a more neutral posture. A broadly corrective tone may also bode ill for gold prices after the metal hit the highest level in three weeks. Crude oil prices & the S&P 500 too have declined.

Bull Market in Commodities - Central Bankers to be Blessed with Inflation Soon

Commodities are now nearing bull-market territory after rebounding from the lowest level in at least 25 years. Investors have poured more than $17 billion into exchange-traded products linked to commodities since the start of the year. Sharply rising commodity prices since the beginning of the year are a warning sign that perhaps the inflationary times have begun.

Here's Why Crude Oil Prices Could Keep Climbing

Stocks took a beating yesterday. But crude oil continues to push to new 2016 highs, topping $48 for the first time in nearly five months. No one is cheering as it sneaks higher week after week. Where were these oil bears when crude was trading north of $100 in early 2014? And more importantly—where are the crude oil bulls right now as this disbelief rally continues?

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Crude Oil War

For exporters of commodities & industrial materials, the shrinking of the world’s largest source of demand is bad news. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Chinese energy sector, as crude oil accounts for 6% of total imports. China’s economic slowdown, combined with a global push towards renewable energy, could threaten the already fragile levels of its crude oil demand.

Iran Offers Discounts On Asian Crude Oil, Hits Saudi Where It Hurts Most

Iran has introduced a discount on the June contract for its heavy crude oil going to Asia, just after Saudi Arabia announced a price increase for its own June contract for the continent. With the discount, Iranian crude oil will be noticeably cheaper for Asian clients than both Saudi and Iraqi crude. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing a game of barrels & Asia is the ultimate prize.

Crude Oil Prices Spike After EIA Reports Surprise Draw

The EIA sees non-OPEC production dropping 0.7 million bpd this year, while it sees OPEC production up 0.9 million bpd this year & up an additional 0.7 million bpd in 2017 (h/t Iran). It now pegs crude oil demand growth at 1.4 million bpd for this year (up 0.3 million bpd from last month), with the increase in large part due to higher Chinese and Indian demand.

Gold Jumps, Silver Soars As The U.S. Dollar Slumps

Gold prices jumped to a seven-week high & silver soared to a 15-month peak as the dollar touched an 11-month low. With Japan closed today, and unable for now to do more damage (or damage control), China stepped in with some modest turmoil of its own by strengthening the Yuan fix by the most since 2005, pressuring the US dollar weaker for the 5th day in a row.

Oil Prices Rise Despite Threat of Potential Supplies

Oil prices are expanding their rally despite the failure of the Doha meeting. Traders are now concentrating on the declining North American production. US producers have lost their potential of investing in growth opportunities amid a decline in crude oil prices from $120 to below $30 a barrel. Oil supplies from Canada, US & Latin America could decline by 700,000 barrels per day this year.

What's Really Driving the Rally in Crude Oil Prices?

Does the huge rally in crude oil mean it’s time for us to bet on higher prices? Or is this rally doomed to fizzle? As crude oil has soared over 50% since Feb. 11, the number of bets on increased prices has barely budged. It’s been a hell of a bottom-bouncer so far. But we need to see more evidence before we’re ready to declare this new crude oil rally alive & well.

Why North-American Oil Is Positioned To Win In The Long-Run

Not only are North American oil producers displacing non-North American imports from the U.S. market, U.S. producers are competing for share in foreign crude oil and petroleum product import markets. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports at the end of 2015 will increase U.S. exports. The “growing volumes of exports” from the U.S. are now “spooking the markets.”

Oil Prices Drop After IEA Warns Production Freeze Is "Meaningless"

A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed … to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

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