Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil Prices’

Is There a Relationship Between the Malaysian Ringgit & Crude Oil Prices?

The fortunes of the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) have reversed in line with crude oil prices since the beginning of 2017, as OPEC’s production caps continue to drive incremental hikes. This highlights the direct correlation between crude oil prices & the Malaysian currency, with the former dictating the performance of the latter & driving clearly visible trends in growth & depreciation.

Futures Market Trend Indicates The Return Of Bearishness In Oil Markets

Speculative movements in the futures market don’t dictate everything, but they are good indicators of market sentiment. Net-long positions in crude futures reduced for a third week in a row. Also the fact that the oil glut persists despite what should be bullish trends – high OPEC compliance, growing demand, and the initial signs of falling inventories – suggests that lower oil prices could be forthcoming.

OPEC on the Brink of Failure - The End to the Cartel may be Near

OPEC, which has far exceeded the average life of cartels, is on the brink of failure. Though cracks have been developing in the cartel since the start of the current oil crisis, it has managed to stay together so far. The success of the current OPEC deal for production cuts will decide its future as a cartel. If the OPEC members don’t act together, chances are that the cartel will come to an end very soon.

Here's What Gold Can Tell You About Crude Oil Prices

The WTI crude oil to gold ratio is one of the oldest indicators in the market. Currently, the ratio, which bottomed at about 21 at the end of 2016, has risen to just over 26 & has now clearly broken the trend line, that peaked in early 2016 at just above 45. So 45 barrels per ounce reflects very cheap oil or very expensive gold while 21 reflects very expensive oil or very cheap gold.

These Fundamentals Point To Higher Oil Prices

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

Don’t Worry about Oil Prices, Here’s How You Can Profit

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

A Massive Spike In Crude Oil Prices Seems Inevitable - IEA

3 years of drastic cuts to upstream spending due to the meltdown in oil prices could result in a shortage of oil supply in a few years, according to the IEA. Global oil and gas investment dropped by a quarter in 2015 & by an additional 26% last year. The pipeline of new projects is too small, while oil demand continues to grow, eventually overtaking supply & leading to a sharp spike in oil prices.

Will $60 Level be a Ceiling For Crude Oil Prices?

Oil prices faltered on Tuesday on slow but steady gains in U.S. output. The failure to break out of a narrow trading range on the upside has exposed crude oil prices to some losses. Having failed on a couple of occasions to break higher it is only natural to see it correct lower. As per a Reuters survey, analysts see oil prices staying below $60 even if OPEC extended its cuts through the end of the year.

Will Crude Oil Prices Rise To $60 By Christmas?

What does the crude oil chart forecast? Crude oil has made a nice ascending triangle pattern. If the price breaks out of the $52 levels and sustains the breakout, it gives an upside pattern target of $67. However, the markets have rejected the levels above $52 on December 5, but we should see one more attempt at a breakout above the highs.

Brace for Inflation - The Next Big Trigger for Gold Prices

Based on the 10-year TIPS market, inflation expectations recently hit 1.75%, the highest level since the summer of 2015. To the extent that rates are being driven by changing perceptions of inflation & not real rates, higher interest rates may not be an impediment for gold. Gold is potentially the more leveraged play under a scenario where inflation expectations rise faster than nominal rates.

Gold Prices Lose Steam After Post-FOMC Rally, May Turn Lower

Gold prices struggled to find follow-through after posting the largest daily gain in two weeks following the FOMC rate decision. Initial elation at the flattening of the central bank’s projected rate hike path in the immediate aftermath of the policy announcement may be giving way to the realization that Chair Yellen seemed to all but promise a rate hike in December.

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

Gold Prices Soften While Fed Officials Hard-Sell Rate Hike Hopes

Gold prices corrected gently lower after testing trend line resistance set from early July. Near-term support is at 1333.62, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fed officials may rekindle volatility via bits of guidance before the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period. Hawkish overtones may boost rate hike speculation, boosting the US Dollar and weighing on gold prices.

Crude Oil Enters Bull Market Amid Output Freeze Talk

An emphasis by oil companies on frugality in operations mean a certain amount of cost-cutting should be sustained in the coming years. Slashed expenditures in the oil industry are expected to add up to $1 trillion dollars over the 2015 – 2020 period. Dollar weakness & production freeze hopes combine again to rally crude oil prices higher. Here are 5 things to consider in crude oil markets today.

Deemed Necessary but Progressively Ineffective Monetary Injections will Support Gold

In the coming months, the central banks of advanced economies will begin to suffer from monetary exhaustion, possibly starting in Japan where the debt burden is now 250 percent of the GDP. As monetary injections will be seen as necessary but progressively ineffective, investors’ confidence in fiat currencies is likely to decline as they will add their gold purchases.

End of Driving Season Means More Declines In Crude Oil Prices

The driving season ends next month, which is when most refineries shut down for maintenance after operating at near-full capacity during the summer months. This is—historically—when gasoline demand subsides. The end of summer travels is also when gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. could increase, further pushing down crude oil prices.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

Brace for a Correction in Gold, Crude Oil Prices on Pre-Positioning for FOMC

Souring sentiment may reflect pre-positioning ahead of next week’s potent news-flow – notably, the FOMC rate decision – with traders using a lull in high-profile event risk to book profits & move toward a more neutral posture. A broadly corrective tone may also bode ill for gold prices after the metal hit the highest level in three weeks. Crude oil prices & the S&P 500 too have declined.

Bull Market in Commodities - Central Bankers to be Blessed with Inflation Soon

Commodities are now nearing bull-market territory after rebounding from the lowest level in at least 25 years. Investors have poured more than $17 billion into exchange-traded products linked to commodities since the start of the year. Sharply rising commodity prices since the beginning of the year are a warning sign that perhaps the inflationary times have begun.

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