Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil’

The Biggest Wildcard For Oil Prices Right Now - China

China’s record purchases, along with temporary production outages in Nigeria and Canada, helped rebalance supply and demand in the oil market. However, since that is now over, stopping shipments for the reserve would wipe out about 15% of the country’s imports & the price of oil would plunge as the already oversupplied market would find itself with an unprecedented glut of excess production.

Any Eruption of Reality will Reveal this Stock Market Rally as a Head-Fake

All the technical “buy” signals are precisely what you’d expect in a rigged rally. If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the stock market rally as a head-fake. Having exterminated short-sellers, there won’t be many who will benefit should the rally be transformed into a rout by reality.

Prices of Gold, Platinum, and Silver Communicate Valuable Insights

Would you rather hold gold / silver bars or paper bonds yielding “negative interest” issued by an insolvent government that promised to repay you (if at all) in devalued currency units? Ignore the daily and weekly price gyrations, forget the self-serving pronouncements from Goldman, do not trust the paper-pushers at the Fed, and look at the big trends in the gold and silver price charts.

Saudi Market Share Hit As Russia Doubles Oil Exports To China

Russia had overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s leading supplier of crude oil at the end of last year. Russia’s exports to China had more than doubled over the course of the past years — an increase equivalent to 550,000 barrels a day, while the two major oil suppliers – Saudi Arabia and Iran, saw their Chinese oil orders decline year-over-year.

The Rally in Commodity Prices has Surprised Many - Will it Continue?

The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to cause an improvement in market internals. But will the rally actually continue? As always, there are arguments – for & against.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Oil prices have bounced around a bit after last week but have held more or less in the range of $43 per barrel for WTI and $45 for Brent. The price gains over the past few weeks come as the fundamentals have improved. Oil production is expected to continue to fall through 2017 as too few new wells come online to replace rapidly falling shale output.

How to Play the End of the Biggest Oil Bear Market Ever

It’s been a long time since oil has had this much pep in its step. And it’s lifting the rest of the market higher too. Yesterday’s close above its 200-day moving average is crude oil’s first since July 2014. Is the longest downtrend for oil in history is finally through? It’s possible. The road higher will be messy and difficult. But some quality trades should materialize soon enough.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes

India is building a massive underground storage facility system that will be able to take on 5.33 million tons of crude oil as a bulwark against global price shocks and supply disruptions. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has agreed to store crude oil in India’s maiden strategic storage facility, sweetening the deal by saying India could take two-thirds of the oil for free.

Is The Gold And Silver Bottom In? Nothing Confirmed Yet

The purpose of articulating the importance of confirmation is now focused on gold and silver because of the increased calls for a [possible] bottom in both. The information gleaned from chart market activity, in the form of price/volume behaviour, is telling us that no bottom has been confirmed in gold and silver, factually speaking. Many may believe otherwise.

For Commodities Forecast: Follow This Sneaky Indicator

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) forecasts future manufacturing conditions and activity by assessing forward-looking factors. When a PMI “cross-above” occurs—that is, when the monthly reading crosses above the three-month moving average—it has historically signalled a possible uptrend in crude oil, copper and other commodities.

Crude Oil Bust Could End The US Dollar Domination

With Bretton Woods’collapse in 1971, oil became its new saviour and kingmaker as the U.S. dollar became the prime currency for crude oil transactions. The current strength of the U.S. dollar shouldn’t be taken for granted. Although a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar has yet to be found, the petro-dollar is vulnerable in the long-term, and perhaps even in the medium-term.

Betting on Deflation May Be a Huge Mistake. Here's Why

If the metals markets look forward, as markets are supposed to do, they will anticipate the Fed’s response to a strengthening dollar and economic malaise. In 2008, investors knew little about the lengths to which the Fed would be willing to go. Today they DO know. The Fed will overwhelm deflation by creating new inflation.

Gold And Silver Are A “Gift” At Current Levels

It is possible gold can still decline to 1,000 to 865, and silver to 12.50 to 11.70. Anyone purchasing gold and silver at current prices, even if price continues lower over the next year, will be owning one of the world’s most reliable wealth assets at extraordinary prices. Remember, price is a captive symptom of a highly irregular cause that is destined to fail. Count on it.

Is Crude Oil Close To A Tradable Bottom?

By all accounts, the world is awash with oil. Despite the downward pressure on oil, the devil’s advocate wonders: could oil be setting up a tradable bottom? By tradable bottom I mean a level from which oil might bounce. For example, oil reversed from the low $40s earlier in 2015 and climbed to about $60 before resuming its downtrend.

This Is Why $20 Oil Price Is A Possibility

I believe that another plunge in the oil price is required to thrust a dagger through the heart of US shale drillers and the banks that have supported them. Low oil price will at some point result in the situation reversing & prices will turn very quickly. But before that can happen, production momentum needs to be switched off & I dare say that requires a sharply lower oil price.

Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Short Gold

At 1.4 million ounces the market is now in its biggest net short position ever, surpassing bearish positions entered into in July and early August. That was the first time hedge funds were net negative since at least 2006. It’s not just gold that is being swamped by negative sentiment. According to the CFTC, 15 of the 24 commodities tracked turned more bearish last week.

Commodities Plunge To New 16 Year Low; Oil Slides On Venezuela Warning

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is set for its worst year since the financial crisis, plunging 23 percent. It’s not just the metals though: crude oil also started the session off on the wrong foot, following this weekend’s comments from Venezuela that oil prices may drop to as low as the mid-$20s a barrel unless OPEC takes action to stabilize the market.

Gold Prices Nearing a Secular Support

The long term chart of gold shows that we are very close to secular support, which goes back several decades. Old resistance becomes support, so the 1980 and 2008 peaks will be acting a strong support. Moreover, support coincides with the psychological level of 1,000 USD. In sum, we believe the downside is limited. We have reached huge support areas in 3 leading assets.

Get Ready for Commodity Liftoff: Global Manufacturing Just Made a HUGE Move!

We believe the real commodity liftoff should occur when the U.S., Europe, China & global PMIs all score above a 50.0, with the one-month readings above the three-month trends. Of those regions, China is the only one whose reading still trails below the 50.0 level. It’s crucial that China’s PMI move above 50.0, as the Asian giant is the top driver of global commodities demand.

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