Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Debt Ceiling’

The GOLD Investment Thesis rests on the Gross Over-Issuance of DEBT

Every measure of domestic & global debt is significantly worse today than at its financial-crisis peak. Our gold investment thesis rests on the gross over-issuance of paper claims (debt) against comparatively modest levels of productive output (GDP). The US dollar’s extended decline & gold’s breakout signal growing market skepticism that the era of central bank stimulus is coming to a close.

Inflation in 15 Minutes & Solution to Debt Crisis - Raise the Dollar Price of Gold

A massive inflation in 15 minutes: the time it takes to vote on the new policy. Don’t think this is possible? It’s happened in the U.S. twice in the past 80 years. Raising the dollar price of gold is the quickest way to cause inflation. If the markets don’t do it, the government can. It works every time. Gold can be used to work around a debt ceiling crisis if an agreement isn’t reached in the months ahead.

Gold and Silver Prices to Rise Substantially Higher - This is Just the Beginning

With plenty of upside potential & favorable fundamentals supporting them, gold and silver are not just a safe haven to store wealth in times of stress, but a real opportunity to participate in price appreciation as both are nowhere close to their 2011 record highs. With both safe haven & price appreciation appeal, gold and silver will be tough to beat as a solid investment for the rest of 2017.

Potential Catalysts Forming a Great Scenario for Gold Prices

The continuous printing of money, a weak dollar and negative real interest rates – all make a great scenario for gold prices. Another potential catalyst for higher gold prices may be the theater surrounding the hiking of the debt ceiling in Washington. We’re also in the seasonal pattern for gold prices where it’s usually from here up to the Chinese New Year, a succession of higher highs.

Dollar nowhere near Bottoming out, Gold nowhere near Topping out

Despite two rate hikes & impending balance sheet reduction, the 10-year yield has moved 15% lower since early March while USD has been weakening, both contrary to many forecasts. While USD has been falling, Gold has rallied over $200 since December 2015 to its current mark at 1,276.70. Now there are many potential catalysts to move make the 20%+ seen in Gold look small.

US Dollar Headed Significantly Lower with Lower Highs & Lower Lows

Lower highs and lower lows mean one thing — a downtrend. That’s what the US dollar is in now. This downtrend is happening despite anticipated rate hikes. So maybe ask yourself, what if the Fed doesn’t hike rates? What will the US dollar do then? We’ve had some good news on consumer confidence and manufacturing. But that’s the icing on a pretty disappointing economic cake.

Inflation, US Dollar, Gold & the Interest Rate Action by the Fed

The evidence of inflation is starting to emerge. When will the markets begin to see that the Fed is not serious about nipping inflation in the bud? We don’t know the answer but any rate increase could be the one that looks too timid and too late compared to the inflation data. As the markets begin to take note, the dollar will weaken and gold will once again behave like an inflation hedge.

The Return of the US Government’s Statutory Debt Ceiling

The budgetary bottleneck arrives again next month, when the latest suspension of the limit expires on March 15. Back in October 2015, Congress decided to punt on the issue by suspending the debt ceiling—with a hard end date. The US Treasury Department has been actively working to keep the nation’s total public debt outstanding from rising any faster than possible since late Nov 2016.

The Stock Market Crash Will Be Violent - Its Only a Matter of Time

Coming soon, is the mother of all debt ceiling crises that will finally demolish the notion that Trump is good for the economy & the stock market. Fed has destroyed honest price discovery, & so the stock market has no braking or correction mechanism & will drift higher on buy-the-dips momentum until it hits a sharp object – the most dangerous market mutation to have been confected by state policy.

US Treasury Finally Updates The Total US Debt Number, And It Is...

On March 16 of 2015, the US Treasury officially hit what was then the US statutory debt limit of $18.113 trillion. After 162 work days without an update, the latest US debt number is $18,492,091,120,833.99 (yes, and 99 cents), an increase of $339.1 billion since the latest official pre-debt ceiling update. This is also 102.5% of US GDP.

Is This the Beginning of the End for the Dollar?

While the notion of the dollar losing its status as world reserve currency had appeared muted for some time given the lack of alternatives, it is now gaining credence, with calls in China for a new reserve. Gold will play a crucial role as a stabilizer & offset the dollar decline by a higher gold price.

Janet Yellen On A Mission Impossible - Peter Schiff

Rather than asking Janet Yellen about (Mission Impossible) withdrawing stimulus and shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet – we should be asking how markets will react when she runs out of excuses for delaying QE Taper, or decides to expand QE rather than contract it.

UBS Warns The Fed Is Trapped

Why did the Fed decide to hold back in Sep, puzzling investors who had very widely expected a taper and thereby putting the credibility of its communication strategy at risk? The Fed is facing two major but opposing risks, which confirm that it is now trapped.

Why The Fed Likely Won't Taper...Anytime Soon

Its unlikely the Fed will taper its purchases in Dec as government once again begins to debate over raising the debt ceiling. A March taper is also unlikely as the Fed will be dealing with two primary issues then – Evaluating impact of Debt ceiling deal & transition of control at the Fed.

The Collapse Of The Dollar Is Unavoidable - Peter Schiff

None of the attributes that made the US & the dollar so great and deserving of the world’s reserve currency status, exist today. America is now a mirror image of its former self- Now the world’s biggest debtor, with the biggest trade deficit and the dollar backed by nothing.

If The US Dollar Is Doomed, Gold Should Rise

It is rare that investors are given a road map. When this happens, the few who can actually read the map, understand the clear signs and directions it contains, find themselves in an enviable position – Such is currently the case with gold and gold-related investments.

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