Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Disinflation’

Why is the Whole Pie Shrinking? Well - It's Recession Time

We are picking up signals from a source even more powerful than central banks. This source is the specter of global recession. One of the other signals is the shrinkage in world trade. You can have a reduced trade deficit but still find that exports and imports are both shrinking. It means the global trading economy is shrinking: a sure sign of recession.

Currency Wars Become Much Nastier During Recession Times

All central banks have printed trillions of dollars in their respective currencies under various QE programs. They are at the point where they simply cannot print trillions more without risking the collapse of confidence in their currencies. How will central banks stop the recession when they’ve used up their dry powder fighting the currency wars?

How Inflation Could Be Caused in 15 Minutes

So-called “money printing” is seen as a certain path to inflation. The Fed has printed almost $4 trillion since 2008. Yet inflation (at least as measured by official statistics) is barely noticeable. With so much money around, where’s the inflation? Increased money supply alone does not cause inflation. The money must be borrowed and spent.

Deflation In Europe Is Just Beginning... And How To Trade It

Disinflation is just about to turn into outright Deflation in Europe. The ECB is active but most likely already late in the game, behind the curve, and unable to prevent deflation from kicking in. There are important consequences for rates and spreads in Europe, together with the level of the EUR itself.

Will Inflation Comeback In 2014 When The Consensus Worries About Deflation?

The Incrementum Inflation Signal started showing rising inflationary momentum after a period of 19 month of disinflation. Is Inflation making a comeback just as the consensus worries about deflation risk? The direction of inflation is important in Incrementum’s Inflation Signal, not the absolute figure.

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