Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Dollar Rally’

Is Now The Right Time To Short The US Dollar?

The dollar rally has been led in hopes of the Fed tightening rates in December of 2016. The uncertainty over the election is certainly weighing on the dollar. The stock markets are at a critical juncture, as is the dollar and gold. There is some anticipation that the markets have built in a Hillary victory and that a Trump victory is going to roil the markets.

How Much More Higher Could The US Dollar Go?

The US Dollar broke out of its multi-year downtrend and soared above 100. Needless to say, the USD did in fact strengthen a lot. After that initial leg up, the dollar has remained in a consolidation range for much of 2015. Though it recently broke out of a wedge/triangle formation to the upside, it’s not yet clear if this is a definitive move higher or more consolidation.

The Key to Understanding China's Devaluation Against the Dollar

By decoupling from the dollar now, China is sending a message that it may be prepared to let it fall later. This means that when the dollar starts to fall in earnest, China may not be there to catch it. This will also mean that the biggest foreign buyer of Treasury bonds will likely be unwilling to provide help when the U.S. needs China’s help the most.

Is the US Dollar Rally Nearing Its End?

Past dollar rallies of this type have mostly seen a dollar appreciation of around 20% & lasted from under a year, meaning the current rally is already extended. Also, disappointing U.S. economic data is mounting and being largely ignored. Valuations suggest that the U.S. dollar may now be the world’s most overvalued currency.

Trading the Parabolic Dollar

The US dollar has been rocketing higher on the incredible divergence of major central-bank policies. While the Fed’s first rate-hike in 9 years looms, ECB has started aggressively monetizing sovereign debt first time ever. Resulting yield differential has catapulted the USD parabolic, portending a major reversal & fantastic trading opportunity.

When A Soaring Dollar "Reflects Loss Of Investor Confidence And Is Potentially Devastating"

A strong dollar has a Jekyll and Hyde personality – a ‘good dollar’ that reflects economic & monetary policy divergence & whose rally is orderly and limited. A ‘bad dollar’ which de-couples from monetary policy & reflects instead a loss of investor in the face of higher volatility. That dollar rises faster, much further & is potentially devastating.

Why The Gold Price Is Trend-less Currently

Clearly, investors/traders are looking at some signs of economic improvement but are also seeing geopolitical events & other factors which are making them second guess themselves & lose conviction as to which way things are going. There are two very important & opposing gold price drivers which we discuss in this article.

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