Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Dollar Weakness’

Star Performance in Silver yet bears Characteristics of a Bear Squeeze

The strength in silver in recent days indicates of an overall shortage & is an illustration of how the mixture of regulated futures, forwards & over-the-counter instruments creates analytical difficulties. CFTC’s CoT Reports indicate silver is very overbought, with hedge funds holding near-record net longs. Silver’s outperformance has the clear characteristics of a bear squeeze.

The Key to Understanding China's Devaluation Against the Dollar

By decoupling from the dollar now, China is sending a message that it may be prepared to let it fall later. This means that when the dollar starts to fall in earnest, China may not be there to catch it. This will also mean that the biggest foreign buyer of Treasury bonds will likely be unwilling to provide help when the U.S. needs China’s help the most.

The Silver Sentiment Cycle

As a reminder, after silver rallied to the then astounding price of $6.40 in early 1974, it crashed back to $3.80 and then traded sideways for 2 years. Less than 3 years later it had briefly traded at $50.00, due to a combination of inflation, debt and deficits, political issues, conflict with the USSR, fear, a market corner, and dollar weakness.

Gold, Dollar Index & S&P 500 Index - Long Cycles & Trend Changes

Given the troublesome global economic conditions & potential expansion of war, there is considerable risk that S&P 500 could fall substantially & a strong probability that gold will rally. A growing global movement away from the dollar use in global trade bodes poorly for long-term dollar strength but well for higher gold prices.

The Safest Investments in a Dangerous World Market

You need both the wood & the spark to have the fire of inflation. US Fed & other central banks have printed trillions of dollars of money in the past four years. So far, inflation has been relatively tame. The printed money is only the wood; a spark is still required. Events in the Middle East, Ukraine and China today may provide the spark.

Safe Havens Since The Great Financial Crisis

How have the traditional safe havens performed since the great financial crash of 2008 / 2009? What can we expect from the traditional safe havens going forward? As we try to answer these two questions, the safe havens we look at in this article are the US Dollar, US Treasuries, Gold and the Yen.

U.S. Default Risk On October 17 Jitters Push Gold Up 2.4%

Deepening concerns about the government shutdown, poor jobs data and growing risk of a U.S. default led to dollar weakness which in turn helped Gold recoup much of Tuesday’s flash crash losses and rise by 2.4%, gaining $40 from a 2 month low at $1,278.24/oz

Manipulation, Gold and the Decline of the Dollar - Sprott

Bernanke has lost control of the bond market; sooner or later there will be unintended consequences to the actions of the Federal Reserve and the biggest one will be the decline in the US dollar – Expect higher Gold prices on dollar weakness among other reasons.

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