Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Economic Data’

Can The Price Of Gold Break Above This Key Level?

The post-2011 Down trendline looks to be the line to focus on at the moment in determining the direction of the price of gold & should serve as stiff resistance for the time being, absent a Simone Biles-like vault over the line. The good news is that the GLD has already twice tested the trendline, in early July and early August. These tests should have served to weaken the trendline somewhat.

Can Silver keep Soaring on Lack of Market Risk Appetite?

A difference of opinion is emerging in the markets over whether silver can extend its recent strong gains. The price of silver rose more than 6% on Friday and another 4% early Monday to top $21 per ounce for the first time since 2014. The uncertainty in Europe caused by Brexit will continue. Add into the mix fears over Italian banks, & investors will continue to flock to silver & other precious metals.

With System Failure Dead Ahead, Smart Investors Stack Physical Gold

With some $200 trillion in projected unfunded liabilities, the government will have to default on some of its promises. A blow up in the futures or other derivative markets could cause a “run on the bank” & the financial system to be thrown into chaos. The U.S. dollar could either crash or surge in a financial panic, depending on how it unfolds. Buy & hold gold outside the banking systems.

Key Structures That Guide the Processes of Inevitable Collapse: 2016-2019

Leaders face a no-win dilemma: any change of course will crash the system, but maintaining the current course will also crash the system. The end-state of unsustainable systems is collapse. Though collapse may appear to be sudden & chaotic, we can discern key structures that guide the processes of collapse. These six dynamics are sufficient to illuminate the inevitable collapse.

Investors Not Believing Economic Data, Still Prefer Gold

I think there is some disbelief in the recent slew of better-than-expected U.S. economic data, which could be supporting gold prices. Lower U.S. Treasury yields are increasing the attractiveness of gold and other precious metals as gold doesn’t pay a coupon or dividend. Investors have started to move back into gold. As a result, every slight weakening in prices is only temporary.

Gold Price Strengthening as Debt Ceiling Debate Heats Up … Again

Any near-term “resolution” of the debt ceiling standoff that doesn’t require the government to start living within its means won’t resolve the debt problem. It will just make the problem bigger – more spending; more borrowing; more bond buying from the Federal Reserve. It all adds up to more reasons to own gold and silver.

Government Shutdown & Debt Limit Questions Answered

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, but the House looks unlikely to act until shortly before the September 30 deadline. Here are some attempts to answer the main questions surrounding the shutdown, debt limit & ramifications.

OPEC Lowers Global Oil Demand Growth Expectations In 2016

OPEC provides this first serving, as they have released the third and final installment of key monthly oil reports after last week’s releases from the EIA and IEA. The cartel has upped its expectation for oil demand growth this year by 84,000 barrels per day to 1.46 mn bpd, but revised its forecast lower for next year by 50,000 bpd to 1.29 mn bpd.

Could Gold Prices Soar in September?

Gold prices began this week on a slightly negative note as prices drifted back towards their lowest levels since mid-August after US payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a US Fed rate hike. People are also waiting to see what’s going on in China. That & the Fed rate decision will be the most important factors for gold prices over the next days.

A Sept Rate Hike Is Not Even Close: Goldman's 7 Reasons Why Yellen Will Delay... Again

On one hand, every economist, virtual portfolio manager, Yahoo Finance Twitter expert & TV talking head is certain that a September rate hike is inevitable. On the other hand, the bank that runs the NY Fed, Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its call that the Fed will not hike in September. So here is Goldman’s Jan Hatzius with seven reasons why Yellen will delay. Again.

Falling Oil Prices and Gold Market

It is difficult to precisely assess the overall impact of lower oil prices on economic growth. The states driving GDP growth in US now are oil states, indicating that much of current US economic growth depends on the oil business. So what are the possible consequences of the drop in oil prices for the economy and gold market?

Data Driven or Driven Data: Economy

While there are a many types of economic data releases, 2 reports have risen above the rest in importance: Quarterly GDP estimates issued by BEA & monthly jobs report issued by BLS & both have been recently coming up roses. Almost all the other significant data, have been ignored or, when that proves impossible, rationalized away.

All Economic Data Are Lies

The scariest part of it all is that the data most utilized by the Federal Reserve, in determining how many dollars to print out of thin air, are the employment lies & the “twin towers” of inflation understatement; i.e., the CPI and GDP. Lying about the rate of inflation is an activity which comes more naturally to central bankers than breathing.

Why The Stock Market Is Detached From The Economy

While statistical economic data suggests that the economy is rapidly healing, it has only been so for a very small percentage of the players. For most American’s they have only watched the “rich” prosper as the Federal Reserve put Wall Street before Main Street. Moreover; global deflationary pressures have only begun to wash back on the domestic economy.

The Great American Economic Growth Myth

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts & the Fed have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. But the Q1 drop points to underlying economic growth conditions that remain weak & concerning despite several years of healing facilitated by exceptionally accommodative monetary policy.

Is The Economic Recovery Only Statistical?

Since economic recoveries should be a function of economic prosperity across the national spectrum, is the current economic recovery achieving that goal? While Wall Street & top 20% of the population have certainly enjoyed the surge in asset prices due to Fed interventions, has the other 80% seen an increase in prosperity too?

Stock Index At Record High And Rupee Strength Makes Analysts Like India Now

Despite India’s troubles over the past few years, more recent economic data indicate that India is heading in the right direction. India has a very good future. All we need is to make some reforms to allow growth at the pace that it should be growing. This is an economy that should be growing at 6%.

Asset Purchases By The US Fed And The S&P 500

Periods where the Fed was buying bonds have seen stocks rally, whereas periods where the Fed was not actively purchasing bonds saw two of the largest pullbacks for the S&P 500 during this bull market – proving a historical correlation between increases in the Fed’s balance sheet & the S&P 500.

What Needs to Happen Before We See a Big Recovery in Economy?

Will real economy mend before excessive financial risk-taking kills the patient? What needs to happen before we get a robust recovery: 1) Households need to borrow at the pace we normally see in economic expansions. 2) Household income needs to grow strongly – More of the second & less of first.

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