Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Economic Recovery’

Why ‘Stimulus’ Doesn’t Guarantee an Economic Recovery

The theory is that the additional spending will cause businesses to boost production to meet this demand. Producers will add jobs, triggering increases in consumer spending that will ripple through the economy and fuel a stronger overall recovery. Unfortunately, such government pump-priming hasn’t worked in the past & there’s no reason to believe it will work now.

Beware! The Billionaires Start Buying Gold as Stagflation Triggers Demand

The billionaires are buying gold. George Soros has just invested in a gold producer, Barrick gold. Soros’ former chief strategist Stan Druckenmiller has stated gold is now his largest currency holding. There is billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer who reportedly believes gold is at the beginning of a global rebound. Stagflation is driving positive perceptions of gold.

Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession

When the Fed effectively telegraphed its new reaction function last month, the FOMC served notice to the world that it was not only acutely aware of what’s going on in emerging markets, but also extremely worried about the possibility that hiking rates could end up triggering something far worse than the “tantrum” that unfolded across EM in 2013.

What Does It Mean If The Fed Hikes Rates... And If It Doesn't

Here is an oddly accurate explanation of what it means if the Fed does hike rates on September, and alternatively, what it means if Yellen punts once again, and leaves the decision to the October or December meeting, or just punts to 2016 and onward altogether. As a reminder, Goldman does not expect the Fed to hike on September 17.

Gold Will Take Off as the Fed Loses Its Credibility

Anticipation of future strength of the dollar is driving gold prices right now. A small rate hike immediately followed by quantitative easing and an rate cut would completely undermine the Fed’s credibility. What about the price of gold? It will rise when the markets wake up to the fact that the Fed’s biggest easy money days are yet to come.

U.S. Wages Have Fallen EVERY Quarter of the Recovery

What has been difficult to document in a definitive way has been the fall in U.S. wages. The problem is that to express U.S. wages meaningfully, we must use “real dollars”, i.e. adjust these wages for inflation. With the U.S. government only providing nominal data about U.S. wages & consistently lying about the actual inflation rate; there’s a lack of data to make any conclusive statement.

Paper Gold And Silver Are Slammed – Is The System Collapsing?

How is it that day after day gold and silver get smashed when the NY Comex floor trading opens? Does it seem odd that, nearly everyday for years, at 8:20 a.m. EST all of a sudden the world decides to unload paper gold and silver positions? The misrepresentation of the true, intrinsic price of gold and silver by the NY & London paper markets is perhaps the greatest fraud in history.

What's Next For Oil And Gold: Thoughts From Eric Sprott, Rick Rule & Marc Faber

Weak economies around the world offer weak demand for commodities and for capital. The effect is to keep interest rates extremely low and to push commodity prices down. We can therefore view the oil price as a symptom of poor global economic growth, which is a long-term problem & not just as a consequence of a slight oversupply.

Gold Is Beginning to Lose Less Badly Against the US Dollar

Over the last few years, gold has simply been losing the war against the US dollar. Though gold’s price is stabilizing, its struggle against the US dollar is uphill, and that the dollar still has a strong upper hand. Important moves in gold originate from deep changes in the global monetary and financial system.

Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed

The threat of a deflation, more than six years after the last recession, remains an imminent threat. It is not just a domestic issue, but a global one. The continued hope, of course, is that the next round of interventions will be the one that finally sparks the inflationary pressures needed to jump start the engine of economic recovery.

Get Your Money Out of Banks & into Something Tangible: GOLD

The most important factor right now is the physical shortage of gold. The declining amounts of gold in Shanghai storage suggest we are getting close. So I expect something to happen in the physical gold markets soon. When people finally decide they want to buy gold, there probably won’t be any gold.

Alternative Measures Suggest Weaker Economy

In an economy where activity is beginning to surge, the prices of commodities also pick up, as demand for these increases. Rising economic activity leads to demand for credit & so interest rates also increase. But this is hardly the case, which increases risk of disappointment in months ahead which could be negative for markets.

Jobs Market: The True U.S. Rate of Unemployment is 23.2%

Dearth of jobs resulted in Americans giving up looking for non-existent jobs and thus ceased being counted in the labor force. The 6.2% US unemployment rate is misleading as it excludes discouraged workers who have given up and left the labor force because there are no jobs to be found.

The Ongoing Rot in the Economy

However hard the Central Planners try, they will soon realize that no amount of money printing can cleanse the rot of the US economy. Here we investigate the U.S. consumer & show that for a large portion of the population, things are not anywhere close to being better, in fact they are worse than before the recession.

Full-Time Pain: Most Americans "Wouldn't Call This A Recovery"

Most people will have the impression that the 288,000 jobs created last month were full-time. Not so. And more directly, “most Americans wouldn’t call this an economic recovery.” There are 48 million people in the U.S. in low-wage jobs, resulting, as Mort Zuckerman concludes, “Faith in the American dream is eroding fast.”

30 Reasons The Bear Market In Gold Ends This Summer

Here now are all the 30 reasons, 23 new ones and the older 7 set in cement, of why the Bear phase in the bull market for gold ends this summer without any new lows – By Jim Sinclair. These include all geo-political & other fundamental reasons on why an investor should now turn more bullish on gold.

Unemployment and A Tale of Two Financial Crises

Statistics on unemployment following each recession are clear. Strong economic recoveries translate directly into rapid reductions of unemployment. US economic growth has been anemic & unemployment has remained at high levels. The pace of recovery slowed to 2.1% in 2010 & has persisted at a slow rate since then.

What are Negative Interest Rates and how do they work?

The ECB has cut its headline interest rate to a new record low of 0.15%, and also imposed negative interest rates of -0.1% on Eurozone banks with the hope that this will encourage the banks to stop hoarding money, and instead lend more to each other, to consumers, and to businesses, in turn boosting the broader economy.

follow us

markets snapshot


Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com India

live commodity prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com India

our latest tweets

follow us on facebook