Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Emerging Markets’

The Silver Futures Market War Continues Unabated - Be Cautious

The hedge fund net long is at a new all time high. The Swap Dealer net short is also at a new all time high. Commercial net shorts in silver are fast approaching the all time high set back in October 2009. All of this being said, the composition of this silver market internally is becoming extremely unnerving. If you are long in silver – be cautious and whatever you do, do not grow careless.

Any Eruption of Reality will Reveal this Stock Market Rally as a Head-Fake

All the technical “buy” signals are precisely what you’d expect in a rigged rally. If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the stock market rally as a head-fake. Having exterminated short-sellers, there won’t be many who will benefit should the rally be transformed into a rout by reality.

Gold Price Must Rise, But Brexit Is Not The Reason Why it Should

The pain of negative yields & social chaos will be very long lasting & very good for gold. So, gold must go up, but Brexit is not one of the reasons why it should. In the short term there will likely be a correction in the gold price, creating an opportunity to trade. The market must take the price up for the right reasons, before one can be confident about the resilience of the advance.

Higher Gold Prices can Produce the Inflation the Elites Seek

There are three ways out of debt. One is default, which is not a good option. One is growth, but it’s not happening. The third way is inflation. The government has to have inflation. If it doesn’t, there’s going to be a crack-up in the national debt. But we’re not getting inflation from monetary policy. There’s another option & that’s to bid up the price of gold.

A Stock Market Correction Has Only Been Postponed, Not Avoided

Markets are relieved that the Fed won’t hike rates in March. But, the markets are never satisfied. Getting stock market expectations aligned with the intended FOMC policy path will not be pretty. Expect higher volatility and stock market drawdowns in April and May as markets reprice. A further stock market correction has been postponed, but not avoided.

IEA Sees “Light At The End Of The Tunnel” For Oil Markets

The IEA found a variety of reasons to think that the oil markets are turning a corner, including: supply outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and the UAE; the declines in non-OPEC supply; tepid but steady demand; recent weaknesses in the U.S. dollar; and the potential that OPEC takes stronger action to boost prices, although any meaningful steps to reduce supply remain unlikely.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

Marc Faber on Cashless Society Insanity & Why Wall Street Hates Gold

Basically, everybody – the media, the government and the financial sector – detests and hates gold because it’s honest. You cannot print it and double the supply of gold overnight. They want to move into cashless society so they can control you. If they introduce a cashless society, I think it’s going to be very likely that the government will try to take the gold away from you.

Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central Banks Is Lost: Jeff Gundlach

In his latest communication with the outside world, Jeff Gundlach said that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce “as investors lose faith in central banks. “The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the ‘In Central Banks We Trust’ mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax,” Gundlach said.

The Fed Blinked; Dollar Plunged; Gold Rallied

Gold has fallen for the last few years based on this false belief that everything is great and we’re going to have a return to normalcy, and the Fed’s going to shrink its balance sheet. Nothing could be further from the truth. This gold price today, is at the highest it has been since the Fed hike. And this collapse in the dollar today is just the beginning.

One-Fifth Of All Worldwide Stock Market Wealth Is Already Gone

As bad as things are in the U.S. right now, the truth is that we still have a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the planet. Around the world, many major stock market indexes are already down more than 30 or 40 percent. Overall, the MSCI All-Country World Index is now down 20 percent, which officially puts us in bear market territory.

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: Buy Gold As A 30% Bear Market Is Coming

The bear market started with the energy complex but it is a trend, which is filtering through into other commodity themes, as well as Emerging Markets, Asia and at the end of the day into the Western world. In 2016, we see gold profiting as a safe haven and as of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market.

Have Commodities Reached an Inflection Point?

Most commodities, including crude oil, metals and grains, are priced in U.S. dollars. They therefore share an inverse relationship. When the dollar weakens, prices tend to rise. And when it strengthens, prices fall, among other past ramifications. We might very well have reached an inflection point for commodities, which opens up investment opportunities.

Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession

When the Fed effectively telegraphed its new reaction function last month, the FOMC served notice to the world that it was not only acutely aware of what’s going on in emerging markets, but also extremely worried about the possibility that hiking rates could end up triggering something far worse than the “tantrum” that unfolded across EM in 2013.

We're Nowhere Near Peak Coal Use in China and India

China and India collectively consume about 60% of all coal produced in the world. Consumption is expected to continue expanding as their populations balloon and the energy-thirsty middle class expands. Unlike China, India has no present interest in reigning in its use of coal & it’s possible that if China’s coal consumption declines, India will be there to fill the hole.

Central Banks Behind Slowdown in Global Trade

Over the past decade, all central banks went into overdrive with currency devaluations. This has done more harm than good. A currency war between developing nations is likely to be more damaging than thought, leading to a reduction in global trade & possibly economic growth, rather than just reapportioning a fixed level of trade between winners & losers.

The Next Financial Crisis Won't be Like the Last One

It’s not that difficult to predict that the next global financial crisis will arise not in the banking sector but in a market that’s beyond the reach of central banks.That is, printing $1 trillion and promising to “do whatever it takes” won’t fix what’s broken. It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets.

Why the Fed Would be Insane to Raise Rates: The Rising U.S. Dollar

What happens when the Fed makes the US Dollar more attractive to global capital? Capital flows even faster out of emerging economies and China. The tidal flow of capital out of emerging markets and China threatens to surge into a veritable tsunami should the Fed raise rates. What happens as capital flees emerging markets and China? Lots of bad things.

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