Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Employment Growth’

No Fed Rate Hike In September - Goldman Sachs

The market’s initial reaction signals rising expectations of a September rate hike but, as Goldman’s Jan Hatzius explains, with a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the August Current Activity Indicator is +2.8%, in line with the July figure. So they continue to expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the September 16-17 meeting.

What's The Real Reason The Fed Is Raising Rates? Surely Not Employment

Although Federal Reserve officials publicly claim that the reason for impending rate hikes is that the American economy is doing well, there’s not a lot of evidence, at least based upon prior tightening cycles, that it’s the real economy the Fed is worried about. Employment growth is in fact decelerating, and has been decelerating since February 2015.

Recovery? No Jobs for the Young, No Retirement for the Old

The Fed’s Zero Interest Rate Policy has destroyed low-risk yields on retirement funds, greatly reducing the yield on retirement savings. As a a direct result of Fed policy (designed to recapitalize banks at the expense of savers & retirees), those hoping to retire have been forced to put their savings at risk or working longer because the low-risk yield on retirement savings are now meager.

Alternative Measures Suggest Weaker Economy

In an economy where activity is beginning to surge, the prices of commodities also pick up, as demand for these increases. Rising economic activity leads to demand for credit & so interest rates also increase. But this is hardly the case, which increases risk of disappointment in months ahead which could be negative for markets.

Financial Markets - How Effective Have The Fed's QE Programs Been?

The rise & gains in the financial markets have come at a time when corporate profits are slowing; economic growth remains weak and geopolitical tensions have been on the rise. This is solely due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections into the financial markets. How this all ends is really anyone’s guess.

Full-Time Pain: Most Americans "Wouldn't Call This A Recovery"

Most people will have the impression that the 288,000 jobs created last month were full-time. Not so. And more directly, “most Americans wouldn’t call this an economic recovery.” There are 48 million people in the U.S. in low-wage jobs, resulting, as Mort Zuckerman concludes, “Faith in the American dream is eroding fast.”

What's Lurking Beneath the Glossy Veneer of the Jobs Report?

You need to peer beneath the glossy veneer. On the surface, last week’s jobs report was glossy good news: the U.S. economy added 288,000 non-farm jobs. Beneath the glossy veneer, however, the news wasn’t quite as good as advertised: full-time jobs declined by 523,000 and part-time jobs surged 840,000.

Surprise, Surprise … The Dreaded Taper Is Postponed Again

With Tuesday’s release of Sept payrolls report, various banks have now decided to alter the taper time line they previously envisaged as well – We believe that the pace of ‘QE’ will actually be increased rather then lowered at some point in the future.

Commercial Lending Suggests Weaker Employment

If businesses were indeed gearing up for stronger economic activity in the months ahead which would lead to an increase in employment, we should be seeing a reflection of this ramp up in commercial loans & not a downturn in loans as is being seen.

Is The U.S. Unemployment About To Spike Higher?

As per the latest weekly Gallup Survey, Unemployment has surged from its April lows of 7.3% to 8.9%, which certainly doesn’t bode well for continued increases in the upcoming BLS employment reports

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