Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Employment’

Any Eruption of Reality will Reveal this Stock Market Rally as a Head-Fake

All the technical “buy” signals are precisely what you’d expect in a rigged rally. If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the stock market rally as a head-fake. Having exterminated short-sellers, there won’t be many who will benefit should the rally be transformed into a rout by reality.

Goldman Calls It: No Rate Hike Until Mid-2016

There you have it: no rate hike until mid-2016, which as we said previously, means no rate hike at all since the “apolitical” Fed will never hike just before a presidential election, and more importantly, by then the epic inventory liquidation-driven recession will have already started, making the only question that matters in the summer of 2016: NIRP or QE4.

What Is The Federal Reserve System?

Spending time to understand the ins and outs of the Federal Reserve will give you a significant financial edge. Paying attention to and understanding the Federal Reserve System is more critical to your investments now than in the past decade. Well, everything you need to understand the Federal Reserve is right here at your fingertips.

Interest Rates and the Future of Gold

In my view, the U.S. economy remains anemic, additionally suffering from a strong dollar & proponents of the rosy scenario are likely to be disappointed. A reassessment of economic prospects & reassessment of Fed policy in the months ahead could be just the turn of events that will support a springtime recovery in the price of gold.

The Real Reason the Fed Has To Raise Rates in June

If we assume the same continuous trends regarding employment, GDP, retail spending etc. that US has been producing for the last 12 months, then things are going to get real uncomfortable for the Fed and markets come the Sept FOMC Meeting. Markets should actually be begging the Fed for a June rate hike.

The Oil Glut And Low Prices Reflect An Affordability Problem

There has been a belief that oil supply decline will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. But it seems that the decline in supply will come through low oil prices. The oil glut seen now reflects a worldwide affordability crisis, which in turn keeps demand depressed. Lack of demand keeps prices low–below cost of production.

The Fed Waited Too Long: Here Comes Inflation

This inflation surge is going to be led by wage inflation. By the time the Fed realize that the labor market is so tight that employers are voluntarily raising wages across the board it is far too late, you are officially behind the curve as the surge in wage inflation is signaling loud and clear. The Fed will have no choice but to raise rates fast.

When "Rumor Becomes Reality" - This Is The Devastation Across The US Oil Patch

Trouble has been looming over the oil patch since crude prices began falling last summer, from over $100 a barrel to under $50 today. But only now are the long-feared effects of a bust starting to ripple through the complex energy ecosystem. Cutbacks aren’t yet reflected in broad data on employment, home sales or tax collections.

Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up?

Currently, there are few economic tailwinds prevalent that could sustain a move higher in interest rates. The reason is the higher interest reduces the flow of capital within the economy. For an economy that remains dependent on the generosity of Central Bankers, rising rates are not the outcome that “stock market bulls” want.

Why The Stock Market Is Detached From The Economy

While statistical economic data suggests that the economy is rapidly healing, it has only been so for a very small percentage of the players. For most American’s they have only watched the “rich” prosper as the Federal Reserve put Wall Street before Main Street. Moreover; global deflationary pressures have only begun to wash back on the domestic economy.

How Macroeconomic Data Encourages Government Intervention

What possible use can an entrepreneur make out of information on GDP, Employment or Deficit, etc? In practice, so-called macroeconomic indicators are fictitious devices that are used by governments to justify intervention with businesses. These indicators can tell us very little about wealth formation in the economy or individuals’ well-being.

12 Charts That Show Permanent Damage Done To US Economy

Here are 12 economic charts that show we are in much worse shape than we were 5 or 10 years ago. Long-term problems that are eating away at the foundations of the US economy like cancer have not been fixed. Many of them continue to get even worse. Sadly, most Americans will continue to deny the truth until it is far too late.

If Economy Is Recovering, Why Is Labor Force Participation Rate At A 36 Year Low?

The percentage of Americans that are either working or looking for work is the lowest in 36 years. There are over 100 million working age Americans that are not employed right now. If the percentage of people in the labor force continues to decline like it has been, what is that going to mean for the future of our society?

Central Bank Monetary Policy Enables Us To Put Off Real Reforms

The cycle of entrenched interests protecting their skims and scams via central bank monetary policy is self-liquidating: every nation that pursues this “fix” will find its economy liquidated by financial implosion and the hollowing out of productive sectors to support crony-capitalist unproductive sectors.

6 Major Flaws in the Fed’s Economic Model

Janet Yellen’s greatest deficiency is that she does not use practical rules. Instead she uses esoteric economic models that do not correspond to reality. This approach is highlighted in two Yellen speeches. In June 2012 she described her “optimal control” model and in April 2013 she described her model of “communications policy.”

Failure Of The Fed Complicates Its Endgame

To demonstrate it hasn’t failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin. The abject failure of these policies to aid Main Street while heaping wealth on Wall Street greatly complicates the Fed’s endgame. No matter what the Fed chooses to do, the failure of its policies will soon be revealed to all.

Even the Fed Admits Minimum Wages Cause Unemployment

Minimum wage doesn’t apply to everyone. As economists have shown, minimum wage doesn’t help the lower class. It prohibits employers from hiring anyone whose earning or productive capacity is below the enforced minimum hourly wage, creating permanent unemployment among the least productive people.

Has The Next Recession Already Begun For America’s Middle Class?

In most of the cities in the nation except in a very few, evidence continues to mount that the next recession has already begun for the poor and the middle class. Unless the employment situation in the U.S. starts to turn around, there does not seem to be much hope that the middle class will recover any time soon.

Why the U.S. Recovery is Such a Disappointment

We have had a disappointingly slow recovery, and our consistent expectations for a pickup in growth have been dashed over a number of years. This has been the most agonizing post-recession recovery since The Great Depression, in spite of record stimulus efforts including zero bound interest rates.

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