Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Energy Markets’

Why Any Major Crash in Oil Prices Remains Unlikely

At oil prices below $40 a barrel, virtually no new drilling occurs. As a result, oil prices today may be artificially boosted by market speculation, but as long as they don’t go high enough to lead to significant new drilling, fundamentals will eventually catch up and production will fall dramatically. That in turn will support current oil prices and perhaps even higher prices in the future.

Will A Possible Hike In Interest Rates Hit Energy Markets?

While both the equity rally and the commodity sell-off appear overdone, logic dictates that these trends could well continue in the face of an improving economy and rising interest rates. But at the risk of ignoring cognitive dissonance, financial markets also seem ripe for a counterintuitive move, as indicators reach extremes: commodities could rebound amid a correction in equities.

Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers

Our view is that oil prices are likely to continue falling to $50/bbl and probably lower in H1 2015, in the absence of OPEC cutbacks or other supply disruption. Critically, China’s slowdown under President Xi’s New Normal economic policy means its demand growth will be a fraction of that seen in the past.

Rise of the Petro-Yuan & the Slow Erosion of Dollar Hegemony

Linking the dollar to international oil trading was key to creating a new version of dollar primacy (“dollar hegemony 2.0”) & by extension, in financing another forty years of American hegemony. With the rise of the “petroyuan,” movement towards a less dollar-centric currency regime in international energy markets is already underway.

The Rise of the Petroyuan and the Slow Erosion of Dollar Hegemony

For the last 40 years, a pillar of dollar primacy has been the greenback’s dominant role in international energy markets. Today, China is leveraging its rise as an economic power & as the most important incremental market for hydrocarbon exporters in the Persian Gulf & the former Soviet Union to circumscribe dollar dominance in global energy.

The Golden Age of Gas, Possibly: Interview with the IEA

International Energy Agency (IEA) – The global energy authority believes that this age of gas can be golden & that unconventional gas can be produced in an environmentally acceptable way. The potential for a golden age of gas comes along with a big “if” regarding environmental & social impact.

The Farce Is Complete: Blythe Masters Joining CFTC

That’s right – you read it correct: Blythe Masters, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s commodities division, is joining an advisory committee of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said Steve Adamske, a spokesman for the regulator.

The Silver Market Duality

Duality in trade in the precious metals markets has existed for decades. The decoupling has never been more obvious with […]

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