Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Equities’

How will the US Elections Affect Equities and Gold?

The experience of losing money is common in investing. But where is the certitude of loss even before your check clears? That’s the situation with sovereign debt right now. Gold is money and money is sterile. It does not pay dividends or earn income. I don’t suggest that it is the only thing that people should have their money in. But to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder.

Last 2 Times Equity Valuations Were This High, Result Was A Historic Crash

The current P/E expansion cycle is now one of the largest in history. Although equity valuations are typically highest during periods of low interest rates, the current 18x P/E stands at the upper end of the historical valuation range. During the last 40 years the only instance in which S&P 500 forward P/E exceeded 20x was the Tech Bubble (peak of 24x in December 1999).

Why the Stock Market Could Soar From Here

If the Powers That Be let markets melt down from here, where’s the bottom? Where’s the plan to bail out all the pension plans, banks, insurers, etc. that will be crippled by a full-blown stock market meltdown? It would be a lot cheaper and less painful to prop up stocks at these levels (a 10% decline) rather than let them fall off a cliff to a 40% decline.

Gold, Silver, Equities: Secular Megaphone Patterns

Central banks want to levitate bonds, levitate equities and repress prices for gold, silver, crude oil & other commodities. Equities have enjoyed a very long bull market. Bonds have been in a 30+ year bull market. Debt and money supply will increase, so in the long term commodity prices will also increase eventually. Higher gold, silver, and crude oil prices are coming.

Nine Years on, People Forget How Nasty an Interest Rate Increase Can Be

If the Fed raises rates, I would expect for the US economy to come close to a recession, more deflation & probably some disruption in equity markets. If they don’t raise rates as the decision is data-dependent & it’s coming in weak – you might actually see stocks higher at the end of the year than they are now based on more free money.

Surprise...Everyone Was Wrong About The End Of QE

With the Fed now extracting the QE support, it is very likely that economic weakness will resurface since the “engine of growth” was never repaired. Furthermore, interest rates can remain low for a very long time when there is a lack of sufficient economic catalysts to sustain the drag imposed by higher borrowing costs.

Gold Sentiment is Changing - Play it Safe

We could see some more downward pressure before the end of the year, but it’s difficult to make predictions because every market is somehow manipulated & managed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold at $1,400–1,500 in 2015 but if central banks step in & keep pushing equities higher, as they did this year, then $970/oz is more likely.

We Have Just Witnessed The Last Gasp Of The Global Economy

I believe that the admissions of financial danger by internationalists, the sharp drop in stocks at the beginning of fall, the reversal of the political theater, and the fact that mainstream investors now recognize the illegitimacy of the markets yet continue with the scam anyway, signals the last gasp of the global economy.

A Bullish Transition In The Junior Precious Metals (Gold) Miners

An investor needs to ask himself or herself first of all if they believe in the precious metals thesis & if they believe that there is a place in their portfolio for precious metals & precious metals equities; A – because they’re unloved & B – because they’re traditional antidotes for popular instruments like the U.S. 10-year treasury.

Does Gold Belong In Every Portfolio?

No investment is safe & gold is no exception. With a 28% price drop in 2013, followed by a 12% gain in the first ten weeks of 2014, can we really continue to label gold investment a safe haven? In this analysis, we take a look at the impact of gold on a portfolio under various scenarios. The results may surprise you.

Fed Prepares For Bond-Fund Runs, Looking At Imposing "Exit Fee" Gates

Since the Fed has failed to incite the mass reallocation of funds from bonds to stocks, it is willing to use every trick in the book to achieve its goal. Fed may impose exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining regulators’ concern about the vulnerability of the $10tn corporate bond market.

Still Think the Fed Isn't Fueling Inflation? Check Out This Chart

One camp reckons the reason why inflation is muted is that the Fed largesse has flowed into asset bubbles rather than goods and services, and proponents of this view make a good point: since little of the Fed largesse has trickled down to the to bottom 99.5%, it can’t exerting much pressure on consumer prices.

10 Warnings Signs Of Stock Market Exuberance

Despite the repeated warning signs, the next stock market correction will leave investors devastated looking to point blame at everyone other than themselves. The question will simply be “why no one saw it coming?” When it occurs, we simply refuse to accept responsibility for the consequences.

Why Gold Looks Better than the S&P: Marc Faber

When I compare gold to the S&P, the S&P is up substantially since 2011 and gold is down substantially. If you compare the performance of gold shares to the S&P, it has been a disaster for gold shares. I think gold at this price is actually one of the few assets that are relatively inexpensive now.

Marc Faber: Gold Is One Of The Few Cheap Assets

When I look around asset prices, real estate, bonds, equities, collectibles, etc, I think the price of gold is one of the few assets that are relatively inexpensive. Every investor understands the principle of buy low and sell high. But when prices are low, nobody wants to buy. – Marc Faber

Federal Reserve Overstepped Bounds With Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve has caused more damage by creating a short-term bubble that is unsustainable on its own, and has set the stage for future ad-hoc interventionist asset purchases in markets on equally subjectivist timeframes and justification!

Gold Outlook: Will Gold Bounce Back in 2014?

Will 2014 be a wonderful year for gold after a steep tumble in 2013 from its perch as a safe haven? The indications aren’t promising, considering the number of negative factors pushing against it. – As the old adage goes, “the cure for low prices is low prices”.

If You Believe In Math, Buy Gold To Protect Yourself

A lot of the fear caused by tapering has been subdued. QE will go on much longer than previously thought, equities can go higher, but eventually, there will be another 2008-style crash and there will be a crisis in bonds and currency. We will see the true power of gold then.

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