Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Equity Market’

At Record Valuations - The Market is Now Too Big To Fail

When large concentration of total asset value is dependent on the market, it becomes necessary to maintain the market at all costs. The market has become too systemically important to allow it to fail. And that means policymakers have changed the function of the market. Today, the market is being used as a (false) portrayal of the underlying economy.

Last 2 Times Equity Valuations Were This High, Result Was A Historic Crash

The current P/E expansion cycle is now one of the largest in history. Although equity valuations are typically highest during periods of low interest rates, the current 18x P/E stands at the upper end of the historical valuation range. During the last 40 years the only instance in which S&P 500 forward P/E exceeded 20x was the Tech Bubble (peak of 24x in December 1999).

How Automated Trading / Algorithms Can Affect Commodity Trading

Automated trading accounts for more than 70% of all futures trading. Regulators have set their sights on regulating automated trading in the commodities market with controversial new rules. The increase in algorithmic trading will have a number of impacts on the market and fewer opportunities for human traders who may struggle to compete.

The Line Between Rational Speculation and Market Collapse

At present, the fact that we are highly concerned about market risk is a reflection of a market environment that joins extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with still-troubling dispersion in market internals and a widening of credit spreads. Our concerns about market risk remain extreme at present.

Goldman Explains What Must Happen For The "5 Year Bull Market" To Continue

S&P 500 celebrated the 5 year anniversary of the current bull market by slipping almost 2% this week. We identify key drivers of the 178% or 1200 point market rally since the bottom at 677 on March 9, 2009 & also consider how the 3 drivers might change in the future. Our 2014 target remains 1900.

Primary Reasons Why China Wants Low Gold Prices

People believe that the gold price will fall further in 2014 despite indications that Chinese demand will continue at current high levels…if not rise more. A question not thoroughly explored: “How can China buy well over 2,000 tonnes of gold without sending the gold price rocketing?”

The Top Ten Financial Market Mysteries

Market Trade Mantra: It isn’t the stuff you don’t know that will kill you – it’s the stuff you’re sure about but is totally wrong that will do you real harm. Critical lessons on stocks, commodity markets, and economy on the buy and sell side- Points that seem right but are ultimately misunderstood.

India Will Dominate the Silver Market in 2013

India has become an enormous new buyer of silver, sopping up bullion supply from around the world, meaning the Indians are currently on track to import 25% of the world’s mined silver supply.

Treasury Warns Default Impact Could Last A Generation

The U.S. has never defaulted on its obligations & the US dollar and Treasury securities are at the center of the international financial system. A default would be unprecedented, catastrophic & negative spillovers could reverberate around the world.

Citi Asks "How High Can Gold Ultimately Go?"

Citi – We do not believe that the fall in Gold will be sustainable and expect new highs in the trend eventually – Also retained a long term target of about $3500 for some time on Gold price based on a comparison of this period and that seen in the 1970’s

Gold Acts As A Safe Haven Against USD And GBP

Lower prices, concerns about macroeconomic and monetary risk leading to physical Gold demand – It is somewhat silly to debate as to whether Gold is a safe haven or not – It will be seen for what it is in the coming years

Stocks Slump Most In 7 Weeks As Silver Surges

This is the first close for U.S. Stocks at the lows of the day since July 31st – The 6th down day in the last 8 in stocks and red on the month-to-date screens is not something we are used to seeing

Why Is The "Smart Money" Selling And To Whom?

“Smart Money” Selling and to Whom? – It appears that the “the Smart Money” is lining up to exit the markets by selling their investments off to unwitting retail investors as a “Good Deal”

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