Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Fed Rate Hikes’

30 Years of Data Says Gold Prices Will Rise If the Fed Hikes Rates

Fed rate hikes have, on average, seen much stronger gold gains than a cut, and more frequently, too. Seen against the last 30 years of data, gold is anticipating a major shock from Wednesday’s announcement. If the bond and futures markets prove right instead, and the Fed delays again, the turnaround in gold bullion could be swift.

The New Gold and Silver Forecasts - Alternative Scenarios

The prospect of Fed rate hikes will weigh on gold and silver prices. As soon as Fed rate hikes for 2016 and 2017 are fully priced in, we expect gold and silver prices to rally again because of higher demand from investors. But if Trump becomes President and/or if investor sentiment deteriorates sharply, this would result in sharply higher gold and silver prices sooner.

Can Silver keep Soaring on Lack of Market Risk Appetite?

A difference of opinion is emerging in the markets over whether silver can extend its recent strong gains. The price of silver rose more than 6% on Friday and another 4% early Monday to top $21 per ounce for the first time since 2014. The uncertainty in Europe caused by Brexit will continue. Add into the mix fears over Italian banks, & investors will continue to flock to silver & other precious metals.

Gold Prices Decline as Fed Bluffs on Right Direction of the U.S. Economy

Minutes of the Fed’s April meeting released last week showed Fed officials believed the U.S. economy could be ready for another interest rate increase in June. Will the Fed actually follow through? Sometimes, the speculation alone accomplishes the purposes that Fed has in mind. For instance, the gold price against the dollar immediately suffered from rate-hike speculation.

Gold, A Natural Hedge Against Both - Inflation & Negative Interest Rates

The main reason people buy gold is as a hedge against inflation. But uncertainty & fear contributed undoubtedly to gold’s stellar first quarter rise. Analysts remain focused almost exclusively upon the major historical influence of inflation & possible rate hikes. Negative rates are now looming so large that precious metals could become an alternative form of cost-free cash.

Oil Price Volatility Off The Charts - What Explains The Incredible Volatility?

Oil prices are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, but the daily up & down moves are leaving investors with whip lash. What explains the volatility? What is new is the instability in the financial markets. China’s slowing growth; Emerging market currencies crashed; Fed rate hikes may or may not be forthcoming, etc. This all adds up to a period of incredible volatility.

Can The Fed Raise Interest Rates In An Election Year?

While many economic and market factors may influence when and how often the Fed hikes in the upcoming months, we do not expect the timing of US elections to play any meaningful role in the Fed’s policy deliberations. Expect the Fed to gradually tighten policy in a data dependent manner during 2016 — regardless of how the political winds may blow.

Gold Price Correlation With Federal Funds Rates Since 1971

Everyone assumes higher interest rates will devastate zero-yielding gold, leaving it far less attractive. This premise led investors to avoid gold like the plague, and speculators to short sell it at wild record extremes. But provocatively, history proves gold price thrives in Fed-rate-hike cycles. Higher rates are actually bullish for gold.

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