Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘FOMC’

Gold and Silver Demand Beginning to Undo Government Intervention

I’m just perfectly content stacking my physical gold and silver because I know in the end, these uneconomic systems that are just a sham and illusion like this, they just can’t go on forever. And we’ll patiently wait for that end to come. Though I’d love to see that happen next week, I think there’s reason to be optimistic. Then we’ll just see what 2017 holds.

Why Gold Is Winning The Money Competition

We’re now getting into negative interest rates on bank accounts / deposits. These are breaking out around the world & Yellen has talked about the possibility of having them in the US. If gold has zero yield & bank deposits have a negative yield, gold is the high yield asset, zero is greater than negative 40 basis points. So gold is the high yield asset; zero is more than negative.

Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession

When the Fed effectively telegraphed its new reaction function last month, the FOMC served notice to the world that it was not only acutely aware of what’s going on in emerging markets, but also extremely worried about the possibility that hiking rates could end up triggering something far worse than the “tantrum” that unfolded across EM in 2013.

Did Janet Yellen Just Shoot Herself In The Foot, Again

The bigger problem now is that Yellen just reset the market’s expectations, and in fact set the bar for disappointment even higher. As FTN rates strategist Jim Vogel very correctly notes, “financial market risk is calmer this morning, but Yellen actually elevated the stakes with her detailed speech yesterday afternoon.”

No Fed Rate Hike In September - Goldman Sachs

The market’s initial reaction signals rising expectations of a September rate hike but, as Goldman’s Jan Hatzius explains, with a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the August Current Activity Indicator is +2.8%, in line with the July figure. So they continue to expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the September 16-17 meeting.

Federal Reserve Fairytales: 15 Reasons Fed Policies Belong in Fantasyland

If you add all this up – all the forward guidance, all the dates, all the targets, the currency wars, operation twist, all the flavors of QE, 15 separate fed policies in 5 years, that tells you, you don’t know what you’re doing. You’re making it up as you go along. So people should have no confidence in the Fed. That’s for starters.

Gold And Silver Rise on Short-Covering, Physical Demand & Greece Risks

Precious metals had their best day since January yesterday as the price of gold and silver rose substantially. Many factors seemed to have come together to generate the rise but the primary cause seemed to be buying in the futures market which led to short covering which quickly propelled gold & silver in a short time.

What the Federal Reserve and the Fear Trade Do for Gold

Investors buy gold out of fear of war or concern over changes in government policy. One of the strongest drivers of the Fear Trade in gold is real interest rates. Whenever a country has negative-to-low real rates of return, which means the inflationary rate (CPI) is greater than the current interest rate, gold tends to rise in that country’s currency.

Gold Prices and the Fed's Interest Rate Hikes

The sharp early-year surge in gold prices has fizzled in recent weeks Are higher rates really bearish for gold? Gold can’t drift lower forever any more than stock markets can rally forever. So instead of just blindly accepting the belief that Fed’s rate hikes are bearish for gold, why not check the historical record which proves just the opposite?

Fed Admits There Is Persistent Over-Optimism About The US Economy

Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but are revised down over time as incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about buildup of imbalances in the economy before the crisis. Persistent bias applies to growth forecasts & also of inflation & unemployment.

End Of The Era Of Central Banks

Central banks’ maniacal money printing schemes were the only way to keep history’s largest Ponzi scheme growing; & now that confidence in them is failing & the need for gargantuan QE programs just to prevent instantaneous collapse has arrived, it won’t be long before Central banks will have as much relevance as buggy whips.

Falling Oil Prices and Gold Market

It is difficult to precisely assess the overall impact of lower oil prices on economic growth. The states driving GDP growth in US now are oil states, indicating that much of current US economic growth depends on the oil business. So what are the possible consequences of the drop in oil prices for the economy and gold market?

If The Fed Was Truly Data-Dependent, They Would Have Tightened Already

If the Fed were truly ‘data dependent’ they would have tightened already. Yet, it has been difficult to react to this fact, because of the FOMC’s recent history of fluctuating policy objectives and shifting interpretations as to how best to achieve its dual mandate. Simply stated, the goal posts & communication around them keep moving.

Price of Gold Will Rise - Greenspan

It’s not because former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise – I don’t need his investment advice; it’s that he shed light on how the Fed works in ways no other former Fed Chair has ever dared to articulate. All investors should pay attention to this.

Gold Prices Higher On Slowing Global Economy and Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices jumped last week when World Bank released its report regarding the global economy, slashing its global GDP forecast on weaker outlooks in the US & elsewhere. Gold prices have now hit their highest in nearly three weeks as escalating turmoil in Iraq and Ukraine resulted in fresh safe-haven buying.

"Robust Evidence" Confirms Fed Leaks Data Ahead Of Rate Announcements

A new research paper has found “robust evidence” that some traders have been getting early news of U.S. Federal Reserve rate announcements and then trading on it during the Fed’s media lockup. This was not just HFT front-running but actual ‘information’ leakage… from whom we wonder?

The Message Of The Gold Forward And Reverse Repo Rates

Reverse repos are not new to the Fed’s monetary toolkit. The reasons for the reverse repo program really boil down to enforcing a lower limit, or floor, on short-term interest rates that have not conformed due to the US financial system’s quirks regarding banks vs. nonbanks.

What they say on Wall Street - Don’t Fight the Fed

Simply Google what they say on Wall Street – “Don’t fight the Fed,” and you’ll get 468 million results. Does the Fed Really Create the Boom-Bust Cycle? When the Fed is printing, get your money in stocks. When they take away the punchbowl, turn out the lights and sell your stocks—the party’s over.

A Fed Policy Change That Will Increase the Gold Price

With all of the good news, the Fed may indeed be thinking they can pull out the 25bp lifeline and the banks will be just fine – When the Fed announces it won’t pay any more interest on excess reserves, and banks start lending in earnest again, the price of gold will be very interesting to watch.

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