Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Forward Guidance’

QE Ending Because It Was Successful? Then Here Are A Few Questions

Certainly, QE-induced perpetually rising asset prices & sinking volatility, likely boosted consumer confidence through the interpretation of lofty prices as ‘all must be well’. However, those aspects dangerously conspire to produce a false perception about the true state of economic fundamentals. Some simple questions need answers.

Why Central Banks Need More Volatility - To Maintain Their Omnipotence

Will volatility become a policy tool? PBOC decided that enough was enough with the ever-strengthening Yuan & are trying to break the back of the world’s largest carry trade by increasing uncertainty about the currency. Central banks will need more FX & asset market volatility in order to provide low rates for an extended period.

FOMC Minutes Confirms "Forecasts Overstate Rate Rise Pace"

The FOMC Minutes confirm, “SEVERAL FED OFFICIALS SAID FORECASTS OVERSTATED RATE RISE PACE” – In other words, we are way more dovish than you thought we were… Anyway, stocks love it as the Fed has just given the go ahead to reflate the bubble some more.

Quantitative Easing To Qualitative Guidance: What To Expect From FOMC Today

Goldman expects the Fed’s FOMC meeting (the first with Yellen as Chair), to deliver an accommodative message, alongside a continued tapering of asset purchases. Their market views here are likely to shift little in response, as much of that dovishness is arguably already priced, particularly in US rates.

Goldman's 5 Key Questions For Janet Yellen

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is likely to stick to the script in her inaugural monetary policy testimony but Goldman looks for additional color on: 1) Recent patch of softer data 2) Fed’s thinking on EM weakness 3) Hurdle for stopping taper 4) Amount of slack in labor market 5) Future of forward guidance

A Central Banker Has A "License To Lie’

To mislead investors is actually a key skill required by a central banker’s job description. Revealing the true state of national finances at a time when a devaluation or comparable financial crisis is looming might be to guarantee the loss of the central bank’s entire reserves.

Double Toil and Trouble - Treasuries Burn and Markets Bubble

Market indices have gyrated with economic data as they get added to the cauldron of economic decision making that the twelve governors stir to generate apparitions – Once again market participants are left to interpret the foggy images appearing above the economic cauldron the FOMC stirs for guidance.

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