Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘FX Reserves’

Is China Quietly Targeting A 20% Yuan Devaluation?

Some Chinese agencies involved in economic affairs are assuming a much weaker yuan both over the near- and medium-term. Those projections, which suggest a depreciation of over 8% by Dec. 31 & about 20% by end of 2016, were adopted after the currency was devalued this month & compare with analysts’ forecasts for the yuan to reach 6.5 to the dollar by the end of this year.

Collapse Of Petrodollar: Oil Exporters Dumping US Assets At Record Pace

For the first time in almost two decades, energy-exporting countries are set to pull their Petrodollars – (a term coined for the dollar-denominated oil trade) out of world markets this year at a frenzied pace in the face of today’s “crude” realities. And so the liquidity drain is on, the only question is how far reaching the consequences will be.

When A Soaring Dollar "Reflects Loss Of Investor Confidence And Is Potentially Devastating"

A strong dollar has a Jekyll and Hyde personality – a ‘good dollar’ that reflects economic & monetary policy divergence & whose rally is orderly and limited. A ‘bad dollar’ which de-couples from monetary policy & reflects instead a loss of investor in the face of higher volatility. That dollar rises faster, much further & is potentially devastating.

Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back

FX Market positioning has played a major role in the significant volatile moves seen in the past week as market volatility appears to have been the straw that broke the carry-trade’s back – for now… as Emerging Market currency returns have notably decoupled from moves in US rates.

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