Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘GDP Growth’

Dollar nowhere near Bottoming out, Gold nowhere near Topping out

Despite two rate hikes & impending balance sheet reduction, the 10-year yield has moved 15% lower since early March while USD has been weakening, both contrary to many forecasts. While USD has been falling, Gold has rallied over $200 since December 2015 to its current mark at 1,276.70. Now there are many potential catalysts to move make the 20%+ seen in Gold look small.

Why is Gold Up, is Wrong Question. Ask, Why isn't Gold higher, Around $1550?

Why is Gold Up is the wrong question. We should be asking: Why isn’t Gold higher? The answer to that question will likely come when the Fed decides to hike or not hike next week. And how Gold reacts. If you believe like us that what the Fed does is mattering less and less, than a hike will be a dip to buy. Gold is becoming focused more on the longer term problems enveloping us domestically & globally.

Is Trump Bad News for Gold? The Prospects for Gold under President Trump

Trump or not, the fundamental problems remain deep seeded in the US economy. “Draining the swamp” and “making America great again”, are easier said than done. This is why a serious investment into gold is for the long haul. Look beyond the short-term speculations & projections. Its clear that conditions will not be favorable either way & things appear increasingly dismal.

2017 Creating Conditions for Gold to have it's Best Year in a Generation

Clearly, gold had a poor end to 2016 and fell by over 10% in the last two months of the year. However, it looks set to not only reverse this fall, but to also make high gains during the course of the year. The risks facing the world economy are significant and inflation looks set to rise, both of which create the conditions for gold to have its best year in a generation.

The Major Catalysts That Influence Gold Prices

Physical gold had its best quarterly gain in 30 years during the first quarter, and year-to-date, even with its recent swoon, physical gold is higher by roughly $200 an ounce. Gold has firmly reestablished itself as being in a bull market. The factors that move gold prices are largely unknown or overlooked. Let’s have a look at the seven most common factors that influence physical gold prices.

Rate Hike Largely Priced into Gold and Silver - What about Rationality in Sell-off?

Could the FED finally raise rates before 2016 draws to a close? That sounds plausible in theory, but there are a number of factors that do not support a rate hike in the near term. But even if they do hike rates, this move is already largely priced into gold and silver. We should question the rationality of this sell off. After all, the gold price often moves higher along with interest rates.

Rising Inflation & Sagging Confidence in Central Banks will Catapult Gold Prices Higher

Inflation may surprise to the upside. Consumer prices are set to rise as oil rebounds, while low or negative interest rates and bond buying by central banks have failed to boost economies. Interest rate hikes are incredibly positive for gold prices, because of the existence of the huge QE “money ball” that sits at the Fed & other central banks. Gold prices need another rate hike from Janet to move higher.

What Triggered a Meltdown in Gold and Silver Prices Last Week

The markets entered October with lots of traders still willing to hold out for higher prices as long as prices weren’t breaking down. Across the table sat the bullion banks, heavily short & pushing for gold and silver prices to fall. The impasse broke when the stronger dollar & higher rates pushed metals below technical support. Weak-handed speculators ran for the exits.

Gold Remains a Mandatory Portfolio Asset

Can the US financial system endure normalization of interest rate structures? No. Gold will remain a productive portfolio-diversifying asset until the process of debt rationalization is allowed to proceed in the US. Given implications for declining intrinsic value of US financial assets, as well as ongoing Fed efforts to debase outstanding obligations, gold remains a mandatory portfolio asset.

If You Understand the Negative Consequences of this, You will Buy Gold and Silver

Investors need to own a good percentage of their wealth in physical gold and silver to protect themselves when the market finally crashes. When the market finally craters, it will take down the value of most paper assets and real estate with it. Because there is very little in the way of physical gold and silver to go around, their values will skyrocket as investors seek to PROTECT WEALTH.

Gold Sparkles Most when Dark Clouds Loom over the Economy

After disappointing US economic growth data was released, gold jumped 1.2%. Weak data is good for gold because it decreases the chances of a rate hike soon. If US economy continues to struggle, the Fed could delay its next rate hike. If the dollar index breaks below 93, it could be a strong indication that a new downtrend in the dollar has started. And this could give a big boost to gold prices.

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Crude Oil War

For exporters of commodities & industrial materials, the shrinking of the world’s largest source of demand is bad news. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Chinese energy sector, as crude oil accounts for 6% of total imports. China’s economic slowdown, combined with a global push towards renewable energy, could threaten the already fragile levels of its crude oil demand.

Gold Prices are Consolidating, Instead of Correcting - Pulling back for a Bigger Leap?

Gold has now spent two full months trading between US$1,210 and US$1,270 per oz. The lowest point of that range still has the yellow metal up 12% compared to the start of the year. Instead of correcting, gold is consolidating. You can think of that as correcting through time rather than price. Doing so proves the move was valid. Gold equities have also held their ground.

Low Oil Prices Didn’t Boost Consumer Spending, Nor The Economy - Here's Why

There is no question that lower oil prices have been a big windfall for consumers. But we’re not seeing much evidence that consumers are spending those gains on other goods or services. While a sharp increase in oil prices can reduce U.S. GDP growth, it’s harder to see evidence of significant net gains for U.S. GDP from a sharp decline in oil prices. Here is why.

Why Gold Is Winning The Money Competition

We’re now getting into negative interest rates on bank accounts / deposits. These are breaking out around the world & Yellen has talked about the possibility of having them in the US. If gold has zero yield & bank deposits have a negative yield, gold is the high yield asset, zero is greater than negative 40 basis points. So gold is the high yield asset; zero is more than negative.

A Recession Occurred The Last 16 Times This Happened

Something has just happened that has signalled a recession every single time that it has occurred since World War I. 16 times since 1919 there have been at least 8 month-over-month declines in industrial production during the preceding 12 month period, and in each of those 16 instances the U.S. economy has plunged into recession.

The Relevance Of Gold - Sprott's 3 Litmus Tests

Some view gold as an inflation hedge, others as a deflation hedge. During times of financial stress, some view gold as an asset to own, while others might view gold as an asset to short, because of gold’s historically inverse relation with the safe-harbor U.S. dollar. Many view gold as the ultimate “risk off” asset, and just as many view gold as the ultimate “risk on” trade.

The Key to Understanding China's Devaluation Against the Dollar

By decoupling from the dollar now, China is sending a message that it may be prepared to let it fall later. This means that when the dollar starts to fall in earnest, China may not be there to catch it. This will also mean that the biggest foreign buyer of Treasury bonds will likely be unwilling to provide help when the U.S. needs China’s help the most.

U.S. Wages Have Fallen EVERY Quarter of the Recovery

What has been difficult to document in a definitive way has been the fall in U.S. wages. The problem is that to express U.S. wages meaningfully, we must use “real dollars”, i.e. adjust these wages for inflation. With the U.S. government only providing nominal data about U.S. wages & consistently lying about the actual inflation rate; there’s a lack of data to make any conclusive statement.

Where Did the GDP Growth Go? Not into Wages

Real household income — which includes both earned income and unearned income such as dividends and interest–has plummeted 8.5% since 2000. This is a striking contrast with real GDP growth of 31.6%: the economy has expanded 31.6% after adjusting for inflation, while real median household income has declined 8.5%.

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