Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘GDP’

Why Stocks Could Fall 50% if the Fed Makes the Wrong Move

I don’t know what the Fed’s going to do. That’s a guessing game. What’s important is that we’re in an extremely fragile situation. The world has too much debt & the Fed’s margin for error is tiny. If it takes a wrong step & stocks plummet 50%, it could cause a bigger financial crisis than in 2008. Do you trust the US government & the Fed to manage this dangerous situation?

The Strong Dollar Could Turn on a Dime

Right now capital is flowing into the United States, away from these other countries, partly because the expectation of stronger growth and stronger rates. That’s why the dollar is stronger today. But will US rates actually go up in 2015? If no, and I believe it is so, then the current strong dollar trend could turn violently on a dime.

Silver and Gold Will Thrive Beyond Exponential Growth of Debt

Do you trust real silver and gold, or unbacked paper assets? When the reset comes, and it may be years away, would you rather hold assets that are based on debt, trust in a possibly insolvent counter-party, and denominated in the currency of an increasingly insolvent government and central bank . . . . or physical silver and gold?

Gold: The Good, Bad, and Truly Ugly

Dollars, Euros, Yen, and other unbacked fiat currencies have been printed to excess for decades. A vulnerable and dangerous financial system that is increasingly leveraged is a bubble in search of a pin. Accidents happen! Protect yourself and insure your assets with gold and silver – The real money for 5,000 years.

What the "Price of Gold" Says About Central Bankers

Today, it seems hard to imagine a time when central bankers were more involved meddling in the markets. It seems hard to imagine a time when investors would be more likely to question their faith in these central bankers & that there has been a time in recent memory that investors would be more inclined to consider owning gold.

Nine Years on, People Forget How Nasty an Interest Rate Increase Can Be

If the Fed raises rates, I would expect for the US economy to come close to a recession, more deflation & probably some disruption in equity markets. If they don’t raise rates as the decision is data-dependent & it’s coming in weak – you might actually see stocks higher at the end of the year than they are now based on more free money.

How to Position Your Portfolio to Win in the Currency Wars - GOLD

After recent QE announcement by ECB, euro-to-yen swap rate has gone back to where it was & yen is even stronger! Precisely what Germany wants because it’s biggest competition in machine tools, robotics & automation is Japan. This is currency wars. Currency wars are not genteel, friends-and-family squabbles. This could get ugly.

How Do You Unmanipulate a Manipulated Economy?

Regardless of what slippery words are deployed to mask manipulation, it doesn’t change the reality that the US economy remains a manipulated mess that is dependent on monetary & statistical manipulation. Left unmanipulated, the statistics would no longer be rosy & both the economy & our perception of the economy would tank.

Why Gold Price Manipulation is Now a Global Effort

Here’s the problem: If you took the lid off and ended the gold price manipulation and let gold find its level, China would be left in the dust. It wouldn’t have enough gold relative to the other countries & because their economy’s growing faster & because the price of gold would be skyrocketing, they could never acquire it fast enough.

The Line Between Rational Speculation and Market Collapse

At present, the fact that we are highly concerned about market risk is a reflection of a market environment that joins extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions with still-troubling dispersion in market internals and a widening of credit spreads. Our concerns about market risk remain extreme at present.

2015: If this the Year of the Slump?

There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability.

Marc Faber on Gold, Oil, Currency, Stocks & Economy

What is overvalued and undervalued is a subjective judgment, and I tend to agree that gold shares are down 80% & they are cheap, compared to the physical price of gold & to Facebook or Google & these Netflix type of stocks. There is value in gold mining shares, and I think they could easily rebound from this level by 30 to 40%.

Can Money Printing Cause Deflation?

Over the last 45 years I have observed that, in countries with high monetary inflation, real wages and incomes have tended to decline. Incidentally, this has also been the case since the turn of the millennium in the US, a period in which there has been a colossal expansion of money and credit.

An Endless Fiscal Crisis Looms

Since 1985, fiscal policy went on automatic pilot — where it has more or less languished ever since. – U.S. nominal GDP will be lucky to reach $24 trillion by 2024 or so. The math computes out to a public debt equal to 140% of GDP. For all practical purposes, it means an endless fiscal crisis lurks in the nation’s future.

Gold And Silver – A Change In Suppressed Down Trend?

Until there is a clear break of elite’s central banking dominance over gold and silver markets, there will be no dramatic recovery reflective of where the true price for both should be. The current distorted pricing, as dictated by the paper derivative market & not actual physical metal, will prevail demonstrating the power the elites exert at will.

How Macroeconomic Data Encourages Government Intervention

What possible use can an entrepreneur make out of information on GDP, Employment or Deficit, etc? In practice, so-called macroeconomic indicators are fictitious devices that are used by governments to justify intervention with businesses. These indicators can tell us very little about wealth formation in the economy or individuals’ well-being.

Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't

The only thing that inflation can do is to help governments spend & remain viable. It’s a drug they can’t do without. Economies do just fine with low inflation. The idea that governments can hold inflation to just 2% per annum is preposterous. Once it breaches that level, governments will be powerless to contain it. Endgame will be hyperinflation.

26 Other Ways China, The Largest Economy, Has Surpassed America

In terms of raw GDP, the U.S. is still number one, at least for now. But according to the IMF, China is now the number one economy on the entire planet in terms of purchasing power…China accounts for more total global trade than the US, consumes more energy than the US & China now manufactures more goods than the US does.

We're Relying on Phantom Wealth to Fund Our Retirement

That Social Security, Medicare & pension funds invested in stocks & bonds can fund the retirement of 65 million people is a misleading fantasy. Phantom wealth cannot possibly fund unprecedented retirement & healthcare promises. Only real wealth can do that; central bank liquidity & asset bubbles it inflates are not real wealth.

Gold Will Benefit As US Dollar Faces Competition From Other Currencies

BRICS – an alliance of powerful countries will not allow the West to impose its currencies, and its debt-based economic philosophy on everybody. The result of these developments will ultimately reduce the hegemony of the US dollar. Only followers of a policy of sound money that includes holding of physical gold will survive this coming crisis.

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